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Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2, 7779 - 7794, 01.04.2017
https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.304034

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Şen (2012) ve Şen (2015) tarafından
önerilen oldukça yeni bir trend metodu, Kızılırmak havzasından seçilen
Şefaatli, Kuyluş, Salur Köprüsü ve Bulakbaşı akım gözlem istasyonlarında aylık
olarak ölçülen akım verilerine uygulanmıştır. Aynı verilere Mann-Kendall trend
testi de uygulanarak sonuçlar tartışılmıştır. Mann-Kendall testine göre %95
güven aralığında Kuylus ve Bulakbaşı istasyonlarında trend olmayıp Şefaatli ve
Salur Köprüsü istasyonlarında azalan bir trend görülmüştür. Şen trend testine
göre ise her bir istasyon için düşük, orta ve yüksek akım değerlerinde farklı
trendler gözlenmiştir. Neticede, yeni önerilen Şen metodunda, özellikle görsel
olarak veri değerlendirme aşamasında tüm aralıklardaki trendlerin
yorumlanabilmesi önemli bir avantaj olarak görülmüştür.  

Kaynakça

  • Reddy, V.R., Syme, G.J., Social sciences and hydrology: An introduction, Journal of Hydrology, 518, Part A, 1-4, 2014.
  • Yevjevich, V., Stochastic processes in hydrology, Water Resources Publications, 276p. Fort Collins, CO., 1972.
  • Kottegoda, N.T., Stochastic water resources technology, The MacMillan Press, 1980.
  • Turkes, M., Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Annual Rainfall Variations in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076, 1996.
  • Mortsch, L., Hengeveld, H., Lister, M., Lofgren, B., Quinn, F., Slivitzky, M. and Wenger, L., Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence system, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 25(2), 153-179, 2000.
  • IPCC, Climate change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers, 23, 2007.
  • Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. and Wallis, J.R., Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-1988, Journal of Climate, 7(4), 586-607, 1994.
  • Whitfield, P. H. and Cannon, A. J., Recent variations in climate and hydrology in Canada, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 25(1), 19-65, 2000.
  • Cigizoglu, H. K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B., Trends in the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290, 2005.
  • Marengo, J.A., Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 79-96, 2004.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg W. D. and Yuzyk, T. R., Trends in Canadian streamflow, Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998, 2001.
  • Novotny, E.V. and Stefan, H.G., Streamflow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change, Journal of Hydrology, 334, 319-333, 2007.
  • Haktanir, T., Bajabaa, S. and Masoud, M., Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Journal of Geosciences. DOI: 10.1007/s12517-012-0652-0, 2012.
  • Şen, Z., Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Şen, Z., Trend Identification Simulation and Application, ASCE, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811, 2013.
  • Şen, Z., Square Diagonal Trend Test Procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources & The Environment. January, 07-09, Konferansta sunulan tam bildiri kompakt diskte yer almaktadır. İzmir, Turkey, 2013.
  • Şen, Z. Innovative trend significance test and applications, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x, 2015.
  • Duhan, D. and Pandey, A., Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901-2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India, Atmospheric Research, 122, 136-149, 2013.
  • Kisi, O. and Ay, M., Comparison of Mann Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375, 2014.
  • Kadıoğlu, M., Trends In Surface Air Temperature Data Over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 511-520, 1997.
  • Burn, D.H. and Elnur, M.A.H., Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Journal of Hydrology, 255, 107-122, 2002.
  • Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S., Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144, 2004.
  • Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J.P., Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality, Water Resources Research, 20(1), 127-136, 1984.
  • Birsan, M. V., Molnarp, P., Burlandop, P. and Pfaundlerm, M., Streamflow trends in Switzerland, Journal of Hydrology, 314 (1-4), 312-329, 2005.
  • Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182, 2013.
  • Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M., Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis, and Interpretation, 2002.
  • Kendall, M. G., Rank correlation methods, Oxford University Press, New York, 1975.
  • Mann, H. B., Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259, 1945.

Trend Analysis of Streamflows at Some Gauging Stations Over the Kizilirmak River

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2, 7779 - 7794, 01.04.2017
https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.304034

Öz

In this study, a
new trend method recently proposed by Şen is used for monthly streamflow data
of four different stations, Sefaatli, Kuylus, Salur Bridge and Bulakbasi,
selected from the Kizilirmak Basin in Turkey. The Mann-Kendall trend test is also
applied to the same data, and the results are discussed. According to the
Mann-Kendall test, a significantly decreasing trend is found for the Sefaatli
and Salur Bridge stations while there is no trend in the Kuylus and Bulakbasi
stations at a significant level of 95%.
Different trends are found for the low, medium and high streamflows of each
station in view of the Şen trend test. As a
result, it can be said that the proposed new method of Şen can identify the trends
of low, medium, and high streamflows.

Kaynakça

  • Reddy, V.R., Syme, G.J., Social sciences and hydrology: An introduction, Journal of Hydrology, 518, Part A, 1-4, 2014.
  • Yevjevich, V., Stochastic processes in hydrology, Water Resources Publications, 276p. Fort Collins, CO., 1972.
  • Kottegoda, N.T., Stochastic water resources technology, The MacMillan Press, 1980.
  • Turkes, M., Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Annual Rainfall Variations in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1057-1076, 1996.
  • Mortsch, L., Hengeveld, H., Lister, M., Lofgren, B., Quinn, F., Slivitzky, M. and Wenger, L., Climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence system, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 25(2), 153-179, 2000.
  • IPCC, Climate change 2007: Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Summary for Policymakers, 23, 2007.
  • Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. and Wallis, J.R., Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-1988, Journal of Climate, 7(4), 586-607, 1994.
  • Whitfield, P. H. and Cannon, A. J., Recent variations in climate and hydrology in Canada, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 25(1), 19-65, 2000.
  • Cigizoglu, H. K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B., Trends in the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6(3), 280-290, 2005.
  • Marengo, J.A., Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 79-96, 2004.
  • Zhang, X., Harvey, K. D., Hogg W. D. and Yuzyk, T. R., Trends in Canadian streamflow, Water Resources Research, 37(4), 987-998, 2001.
  • Novotny, E.V. and Stefan, H.G., Streamflow in Minnesota: Indicator of climate change, Journal of Hydrology, 334, 319-333, 2007.
  • Haktanir, T., Bajabaa, S. and Masoud, M., Stochastic analyses of maximum daily rainfall series recorded at two stations across the Mediterranean Sea, Arabian Journal of Geosciences. DOI: 10.1007/s12517-012-0652-0, 2012.
  • Şen, Z., Innovative trend analysis methodology, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046, 2012.
  • Şen, Z., Trend Identification Simulation and Application, ASCE, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000811, 2013.
  • Şen, Z., Square Diagonal Trend Test Procedure. 6th International Perspective on Water Resources & The Environment. January, 07-09, Konferansta sunulan tam bildiri kompakt diskte yer almaktadır. İzmir, Turkey, 2013.
  • Şen, Z. Innovative trend significance test and applications, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-015-1681-x, 2015.
  • Duhan, D. and Pandey, A., Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901-2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India, Atmospheric Research, 122, 136-149, 2013.
  • Kisi, O. and Ay, M., Comparison of Mann Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375, 2014.
  • Kadıoğlu, M., Trends In Surface Air Temperature Data Over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 15, 511-520, 1997.
  • Burn, D.H. and Elnur, M.A.H., Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Journal of Hydrology, 255, 107-122, 2002.
  • Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S., Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144, 2004.
  • Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J.P., Nonparametric tests for trend in water quality, Water Resources Research, 20(1), 127-136, 1984.
  • Birsan, M. V., Molnarp, P., Burlandop, P. and Pfaundlerm, M., Streamflow trends in Switzerland, Journal of Hydrology, 314 (1-4), 312-329, 2005.
  • Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 172-182, 2013.
  • Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M., Statistical Methods in Water Resources. Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations of the United States Geological Survey Book 4, Chapter A3, Hydrologic Analysis, and Interpretation, 2002.
  • Kendall, M. G., Rank correlation methods, Oxford University Press, New York, 1975.
  • Mann, H. B., Nonparametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259, 1945.
Toplam 28 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makale
Yazarlar

Murat Ay

Özgür Kişi

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Nisan 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi 5 Nisan 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 28 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Ay, M., & Kişi, Ö. (2017). Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi. Teknik Dergi, 28(2), 7779-7794. https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.304034
AMA Ay M, Kişi Ö. Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi. Teknik Dergi. Nisan 2017;28(2):7779-7794. doi:10.18400/tekderg.304034
Chicago Ay, Murat, ve Özgür Kişi. “Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi”. Teknik Dergi 28, sy. 2 (Nisan 2017): 7779-94. https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.304034.
EndNote Ay M, Kişi Ö (01 Nisan 2017) Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi. Teknik Dergi 28 2 7779–7794.
IEEE M. Ay ve Ö. Kişi, “Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi”, Teknik Dergi, c. 28, sy. 2, ss. 7779–7794, 2017, doi: 10.18400/tekderg.304034.
ISNAD Ay, Murat - Kişi, Özgür. “Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi”. Teknik Dergi 28/2 (Nisan 2017), 7779-7794. https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.304034.
JAMA Ay M, Kişi Ö. Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi. Teknik Dergi. 2017;28:7779–7794.
MLA Ay, Murat ve Özgür Kişi. “Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi”. Teknik Dergi, c. 28, sy. 2, 2017, ss. 7779-94, doi:10.18400/tekderg.304034.
Vancouver Ay M, Kişi Ö. Kızılırmak Nehrinde Bazı İstasyonlardaki Akımların Trend Analizi. Teknik Dergi. 2017;28(2):7779-94.

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