Assessment of the Disaster Recovery Progress through Mathematical Modelling

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 4, 10113 - 10126, 01.07.2020

Seyyit Ümit Dikmen Rıfat Akbıyıklı Murat Sönmez

https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.473099

Cited By: 2

Öz

Natural
disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the
built environment. Hence, the major component of the recovery in its aftermath constitutes
a chain of projects starting at different times, having different costs and
durations. In this study, the post disaster recovery curve modelled through a
mathematical approach taking into account these properties of the projects. The
approach followed is based on the project S-curve concept that provides the
opportunity to simulate the progress by outlining the project spending. Well-known
mathematical functions are adapted to model the project spending and the
handover processes. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the general
behavior of the recovery curve using the model developed. Weibull distribution
is used to generate the model’s parameters. Results of the Monte Carlo
simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the
duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being
significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Disaster, recovery curve, mathematical modelling, S-curve, Monte Carlo Simulation

Kaynakça

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