Yıl 2021, Cilt 32 , Sayı 4, Sayfalar 0 - 0 2021-07-01

Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting
Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting

Ali DANANDEH MEHR [1] , Mir Jafar Sadegh SAFARI [2] , Vahid NOURANI [3]


This study presents developing procedures and verification of a new hybrid model, namely wavelet packet-genetic programming (WPGP) for short-term meteorological drought forecast. To this end, the multi-temporal standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter at two meteorological stations at Ankara province, Turkey. The new WPGP model comprises two main steps.  In the first step, the wavelet packet, which is a generalization of the well-known wavelet transform, is used to decompose the SPEI series into deterministic and stochastic sub-signals. Then, classic genetic programming (GP) is applied to formulate the deterministic sub-signal considering its effective lags. To characterize the stochastic component, different theoretical probability distribution functions were assessed, and the best one was selected to integrate with the GP-evolved function. The efficiency of the new model was cross-validated with the first order autoregressive (AR1), GP, and random forest (RF) models developed as the benchmarks in the present study. The results showed that the WPGP is a robust model, superior to AR1 and RF, and significantly increases the predictive accuracy of the standalone GP model.



This study presents developing procedures and verification of a new hybrid model, namely wavelet packet-genetic programming (WPGP) for short-term meteorological drought forecast. To this end, the multi-temporal standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) has been used as the drought quantifying parameter at two meteorological stations at Ankara province, Turkey. The new WPGP model comprises two main steps.  In the first step, the wavelet packet, which is a generalization of the well-known wavelet transform, is used to decompose the SPEI series into deterministic and stochastic sub-signals. Then, classic genetic programming (GP) is applied to formulate the deterministic sub-signal considering its effective lags. To characterize the stochastic component, different theoretical probability distribution functions were assessed, and the best one was selected to integrate with the GP-evolved function. The efficiency of the new model was cross-validated with the first order autoregressive (AR1), GP, and random forest (RF) models developed as the benchmarks in the present study. The results showed that the WPGP is a robust model, superior to AR1 and RF, and significantly increases the predictive accuracy of the standalone GP model.

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Birincil Dil en
Konular İnşaat Mühendisliği
Bölüm Makale
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0003-2769-106X
Yazar: Ali DANANDEH MEHR (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: ANTALYA BILIM UNIVERSITY
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0003-0559-5261
Yazar: Mir Jafar Sadegh SAFARI
Kurum: YASAR UNIVERSITY
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0002-6931-7060
Yazar: Vahid NOURANI
Kurum: University of Tabriz
Ülke: Iran


Tarihler

Başvuru Tarihi : 15 Ağustos 2019
Kabul Tarihi : 7 Ocak 2020
Yayımlanma Tarihi : 1 Temmuz 2021

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { tekderg605453, journal = {Teknik Dergi}, issn = {1300-3453}, address = {}, publisher = {TMMOB İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası}, year = {2021}, volume = {32}, pages = {0 - 0}, doi = {10.18400/tekderg.605453}, title = {Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting}, key = {cite}, author = {Danandeh Mehr, Ali and Safarı, Mir Jafar Sadegh and Nouranı, Vahid} }
APA Danandeh Mehr, A , Safarı, M , Nouranı, V . (2021). Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting . Teknik Dergi , 32 (4) , 0-0 . DOI: 10.18400/tekderg.605453
MLA Danandeh Mehr, A , Safarı, M , Nouranı, V . "Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting" . Teknik Dergi 32 (2021 ): 0-0 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/tekderg/issue/52043/605453>
Chicago Danandeh Mehr, A , Safarı, M , Nouranı, V . "Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting". Teknik Dergi 32 (2021 ): 0-0
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting AU - Ali Danandeh Mehr , Mir Jafar Sadegh Safarı , Vahid Nouranı Y1 - 2021 PY - 2021 N1 - doi: 10.18400/tekderg.605453 DO - 10.18400/tekderg.605453 T2 - Teknik Dergi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 0 EP - 0 VL - 32 IS - 4 SN - 1300-3453- M3 - doi: 10.18400/tekderg.605453 UR - https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.605453 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Teknik Dergi Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting %A Ali Danandeh Mehr , Mir Jafar Sadegh Safarı , Vahid Nouranı %T Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting %D 2021 %J Teknik Dergi %P 1300-3453- %V 32 %N 4 %R doi: 10.18400/tekderg.605453 %U 10.18400/tekderg.605453
ISNAD Danandeh Mehr, Ali , Safarı, Mir Jafar Sadegh , Nouranı, Vahid . "Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting". Teknik Dergi 32 / 4 (Temmuz 2021): 0-0 . https://doi.org/10.18400/tekderg.605453
AMA Danandeh Mehr A , Safarı M , Nouranı V . Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting. Teknik Dergi. 2021; 32(4): 0-0.
Vancouver Danandeh Mehr A , Safarı M , Nouranı V . Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting. Teknik Dergi. 2021; 32(4): 0-0.
IEEE A. Danandeh Mehr , M. Safarı ve V. Nouranı , "Wavelet Packet-Genetic Programming: A New Model for Meteorological Drought Hindcasting", Teknik Dergi, c. 32, sayı. 4, ss. 0-0, Tem. 2021, doi:10.18400/tekderg.605453