Econometric Evidence on the Impact of Political Risk in Emerging Markets from the Perspective of Developing Countries

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 12 Sayı: 1, 217 - 241, 21.02.2025

Kenan İlarslan

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.1422381

Öz

In terms of international capital flows acting as fixed capital investments and portfolio investments, the stability of the political environment in the country where the investment is evaluated is an important factor for the investment decision. The intense occurrence of many political risk factors, such as political chaos, terrorism, civil war, corruption, bribery, and a lack of institutional governance, in underdeveloped and developing countries also brings with it economic and financial instability. In this context, the study aims to obtain empirical evidence on the effects of the political stability on the stock market from the perspective of developing countries. In the study covering the period 1996-2021, analyses were made within the framework of simultaneous panel quantile regression (S-PQR) and two-stage dynamic panel data regression method. According to the simultaneous quantile regression results, the effect of political stability on the stock market is heterogeneous. Except for the fourth and fifth quantile levels, political stability has a negative impact on the stock market in developing countries, and this effect can be confirmed at low quantile levels. In addition, dynamic panel regression analysis results show that political stability negatively affects the stock market. In this context, it can be said that stock market investors in developing countries act on the principle of risk-return tradeoff.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politic Stability, Financial Markets, Quantile Panel Regression, Developing Countries

Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Perspektifinden Politik Riskin Pay Senedi Piyasalarına Yansımalarına Yönelik Ekonometrik Kanıtlar

Öz

Sabit sermaye yatırımları ve/veya portföy yatırımları olarak hareket eden uluslararası sermaye akımları için yatırımın değerlendirildiği ülkenin siyasi ortamının ve alt unsurlarının istikrarı yatırım kararı için önemli bir faktördür. Siyasi kaos, terörizm, iç savaş, yolsuzluk, rüşvet ve kurumsal yönetişim eksikliği gibi çok sayıda politik risk unsurunun az gelişmiş ve/veya gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yoğun biçimde yaşanıyor olması beraberinde ekonomik ve finansal istikrarsızlığı da getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı gelişmekte olan ülkeler perspektifinden politik istikrarın pay senedi piyasası üzerindeki etkilerine yönelik ampirik kanıtlara ulaşmaktır. 1996-2021 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada eş anlı panel kantil regresyon analizi ve iki aşamalı dinamik panel veri regresyon yöntemi çerçevesinde analizler yapılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen ana sonuca göre politik istikrarın gelişmekte olan ülkelerde pay senedi piyasasını negatif yönde etkilemesi söz konusudur. Bu sonuç gelişmekte olan ülkelerde borsa yatırımcılarının risk-getiri dengesi (risk-return tradeoff) prensibi ile hareket ettikleri şeklinde açıklanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik İstikrar, Pay Senedi Piyasası, Panel Kantil Regresyon, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler

Etik Beyan

Makalenin tüm süreçlerinde TESAM’ın araştırma ve yayın etiği ilkelerine uygun olarak hareket edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada herhangi bir potansiyel çıkar çatışması bulunmamaktadır.

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Teşekkür

Yok

Kaynakça

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