The Causality Fallacy in Mediation Analyses: A Methodological Review of Cross-Sectional Designs

Öz

This article examines the limitations of cross-sectional mediation models, which are widely used in social science research, with respect to causal claims. First, the conceptual distinction between correlation and causation is clarified, and the conditions under which correlations cannot be taken as evidence of causality are discussed. The article then addresses the main methodological limitations of cross-sectional designs, including common method bias, reverse causality, the lack of temporal precedence, and unmeasured confounders. In particular, it emphasizes that the X→M→Y mechanism implied in mediation models requires temporal ordering and therefore that mediation estimates derived from cross-sectional data may produce substantial bias. In addition, the advantages and limitations of alternative approaches, such as time-lagged designs, longitudinal models, experimental and quasi-experimental designs, and multilevel and multi-source measurement strategies, are evaluated. The article highlights the need to place careful limits on causal interpretations in cross-sectional mediation studies and emphasizes the importance of adopting stronger methodological designs and more cautious reporting language.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cross-Sectional Design
• Mediation Model
• Causal Inference
• Methodological Limitations
• Common Method Bias
• Longitudinal Design

ARACILIK ANALİZLERİNDE NEDENSELLİK YANILGISI: KESİTSEL TASARIMLAR ÜZERİNE YÖNTEMSEL BİR İNCELEME

Öz

Bu makalede, sosyal bilim araştırmalarında yaygın biçimde kullanılan kesitsel (cross-sectional) aracılık (mediation) modellerinin nedensellik iddiaları bakımından taşıdığı sınırlılıklar incelenmektedir. Öncelikle korelasyon ile nedensellik arasındaki kavramsal fark açıklanmış ve korelasyonların hangi koşullarda nedensellik kanıtı sunamayacağı tartışılmıştır. Ardından kesitsel tasarımların ortak yöntem yanlılığı (common method bias), ters nedensellik (reverse causality), zamansal öncelik kurulamaması (lack of temporal precedence) ve ölçülmemiş karıştırıcı değişkenler (unmeasured confounders) gibi temel metodolojik sınırlılıkları ele alınmıştır. Özellikle aracılık modellerinde, X→M→Y biçimindeki mekanizmanın zamansal sıralama gerektirdiği vurgulanmış ve bu nedenle kesitsel verilerden elde edilen aracılık tahminlerinin ciddi yanlılıklar üretebileceği ortaya konmuştur. Ayrıca zaman gecikmeli tasarımlar (time-lagged designs), boylamsal (longitudinal) modeller, deneysel (experimental) ve yarı-deneysel (quasi-experimental) tasarımlar ile çok düzeyli (multilevel) ve çok kaynaklı (multi-source) ölçüm yaklaşımlarının avantajları ve sınırlılıkları değerlendirilmiştir. Makale, kesitsel aracılık çalışmalarında nedensel yorumların dikkatle sınırlandırılması gerektiğini ve daha güçlü metodolojik tasarımlar ile daha temkinli raporlama dilinin benimsenmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kesitsel Tasarım
• Aracılık Modeli
• Nedensel Çıkarım
• Metodolojik Sınırlılıklar
• Ortak Yöntem Yanlılığı
• Boylamsal Tasarım

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