Türkiye’de yaşanan kızıl kuyruklu kayın tırtılı epidemisine kuramsal bir yaklaşım

Öz

Kızıl kuyruklu kayın tırtılı, Calliteara pudibunda, Avrupa'da periyodik epidemiler yapar. Tür, 2018-2019 yılları arasında Bursa, Türkiye'de olağandışı bir epidemi yapmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, türün Türkiye'de daha önce herhangi bir epidemi yapıp yapmadığını ve orman amenajman faaliyetleri, sıcaklık eğilimleri ve son epidemi arasındaki olası ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Daha önceki salgınları araştırmak için hem İngilizce hem de Türkçe bilimsel raporlar ve tezler ile Türkiye'den çevrimiçi doğa fotoğrafçılığı site ve forumları taranmıştır. Ayrıca emekli ormancılarla bir anket yapılmıştır. Salgın öncesi meşcerede yürütülen orman amenajman faaliyetlerinin olası etkilerini değerlendirmek için epideminin gerçekleştiği meşcereye ilişkin yıllık orman amenajman raporları gözden geçirilmiştir. Son olarak, varsayımsal bir C. pudibunda popülasyonundaki büyüklük değişimi, bir epideminin meydana gelebileceği koşulları tahmin etmek için farklı pupa ölüm oranı – sıcaklık senaryoları kullanılarak simüle edilmiştir. Sonuçta, Türkiye'de 2018'den önce bir C. pudibunda epidemisi olduğuna dair herhangi bir kanıt bulunamamıştır. Orman amenajman raporları, epidemi bölgesinde bir elektrik hattı açmak için 2012 ve 2013 yıllarında iki ardışık tıraşlama faaliyetinin gerçekleştirildiğini ortaya koymuştur. 2008 ve 2018 arasındaki sıcaklık rejimi, simüle edilmiş C. pudibunda popülasyonlarında çarpıcı bir artışa neden olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Calliteara pudibunda
• Epidemi geçmişi
• Orman işletmesi
• Tıraşlama kesimi
• Pupa ölüm oranı

A theoretical approach to the pale tussock moth outbreak in Turkey

Öz

The pale tussock moth, Calliteara pudibunda, makes periodic outbreaks in Europe. The species made an unusual outbreak between 2018 and 2019 in Bursa, Turkey. The aim of this study is to investigate occurrence of any previous outbreak of the species in Turkey, and possible relationship among the forest management activities, temperature trends, and the recent outbreak. To investigate previous outbreaks, scientific reports, and theses both in English and Turkish, along with nature photography repositories and forums from Turkey were searched. Additionally, a questionnaire was conducted with retired Turkish foresters. Annual forest management reports related to the outbreak stand were reviewed to evaluate possible impact of the forest management activities conducted in the stand prior to the outbreak. Finally, change of size in a hypothetical C. pudibunda population was simulated by using different pupal mortality rate – temperature scenarios to predict the conditions under which an outbreak can occur. As a result, no evidence of a C. pudibunda outbreak prior to 2018 was found in Turkey. Forestry management reports revealed that two consecutive clear-cutting activities were conducted in 2012 and 2013 to open a power line in the outbreak stand. The temperature regime between 2008 and 2018 caused a dramatic increase in the simulated C. pudibunda populations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Calliteara pudibunda
• Outbreak history
• Forest management
• Clear-cutting
• Pupal mortality

Kaynakça

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