Spatiotemporal forest and land cover change in Türkiye: The role of economic factors in driving environmental transformations

Öz

Industrial advancements, urbanization, climate change, economic developments, and numerous other factors significantly influence land use preferences, subsequently causing changes in land cover. However, these changes are not homogeneus at the country scale. In this study, we aim to determine the total and provincial-based land cover changes in Türkiye between 2006 and 2018 and the impacts of macroeconomic variables on these changes. The land cover status for 2006 and 2018 and the changes occurring during this period were determined according to the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) system. For this purpose, five land cover classes were used. Correlation analysis was utilized to identify relationships between macroeconomic variables and cover changes and regression analysis was used to develop models aiming to predict future changes in land cover based on macroeconomic variables. Research findings indicate that 5.31% of forest areas, 2.9% of agricultural areas, and 7.19% of shrub and/or herbaceous vegetation associations have been converted to other uses. During this period, forest cover increased in 38 provinces in Türkiye, decreased in 41 provinces, and remained unchanged in two provinces. The province with the highest percentage increase in forest areas was Iğdır, at 19.98%, while the province with the most significant percentage decrease in forest areas was Ordu, at 0.62%. There was a statistically significant negative correlation between changes in forest areas and certain macroeconomic factors: gross domestic product (-0.310), number of automobiles (-0.308), number of motor vehicles (-0.326), and the number of buildings according to the building use permit (-0.287).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Land use
• Macroeconomic factors
• CORINE
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de orman ve arazi örtüsü değişimi: çevresel dönüşümlerin yönlendirilmesinde ekonomik faktörlerin rolü

Öz

Endüstriyel gelişmeler, kentleşme, iklim değişikliği, ekonomik gelişmeler ve diğer birçok faktör arazi kullanım tercihlerini önemli ölçüde etkileyerek arazi örtüsünde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Ancak bu değişimler ülke ölçeğinde homojen değildir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de 2006-2018 yılları arasında toplam ve il bazında arazi örtüsü değişimlerinin ve makroekonomik değişkenlerin bu değişimler üzerindeki etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. 2006-2018 yıllarına ait arazi örtüsü durumu ve bu dönemde meydana gelen değişimler Çevresel Bilginin Koordinasyonu (CORINE) sistemine göre belirlenmiştir. Bu amaçla beş arazi örtüsü sınıfı kullanılmıştır. Makroekonomik değişkenler ve örtü değişiklikleri arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek için korelasyon analizi ve makroekonomik değişkenlere dayalı olarak arazi örtüsünde gelecekteki değişiklikleri tahmin etmeyi amaçlayan modeller geliştirmek için regresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, orman alanlarının %5,31'inin, tarım alanlarının %2,9'unun ve çalı ve/veya otsu bitki birliklerinin %7,19'unun diğer kullanımlara dönüştürüldüğünü göstermektedir. Bu dönemde Türkiye'de 38 ilde orman alanları artmış, 41 ilde azalmış, 2 ilde ise değişmemiştir. Orman alanlarının yüzde olarak en fazla arttığı il %19,98 ile Iğdır, en fazla azaldığı il ise %0,62 ile Ordu olmuştur. Orman alanlarındaki değişim ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (-0,310), otomobil sayısı (-0,308), motorlu taşıt sayısı (-0,326) ve yapı kullanım iznine göre bina sayısı (-0,287) arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir negatif korelasyon belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arazi kullanımı
• Makro-ekonomik faktörler
• CORINE
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Açıkgöz, Ö., 2011. Urban, urban community and the urban sociology. Istanbul Journal of Sociological Studies 35:57-83. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/100952 Accessed: 13 October 2023
2. Aksoy, N., Tuğ, N.G., Eminağaoğlu, Ö., 2014. Türkiye’nin vejetasyon yapısı. In: Türkiye’nin doğal-egzotik ağaç ve çalıları (Ed: Akademik, U.), T.C. Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Orman Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara, pp. 54-68.
3. Aktürk, E., Altunel, A.O., Kara, F., 2020. Investigation of the 18-year status and changes of mixed stands in Europe. Journal of Bartin Faculty of Forestry 22(3):929-938. https://doi.org/10.24011/barofd.744832
4. Akturk, E., Guney, K., 2021. Vegetation cover change analysis of phytogeographic regions of Türkiye based on CORINE land cover datasets from 1990 to 2018. Kastamonu University Journal of Forestry Faculty 21(2):150-164. https://doi.org/10.17475/kastorman.1000406
5. Alig, R.J., Plantinga, A.J., 2004. Future forestland area: Impacts from population growth and other factors that affect land values. Journal of Forestry 102(8):19-24. https://doi.org/10.1093/jof/102.8.19
6. Arneth, A., Barbosa, H., Benton, T. et al., 2019. IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Summary for Policy Makers. Geneva, Switzerland Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/4/2020/06/SRCCL_SPM_Revised Draft_2.15_pdf.pdf Accessed: 03 November 2023
7. Armenteras, D., Rudas, G., Rodriguez, N., Sua, S., Romero, M., 2006. Patterns and causes of deforestation in the Colombian Amazon. Ecological indicators 6(2):353-368. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2005.03.014
8. Ateşoğlu, A., 2016. Investigation of accuracy of CORINE 2006 land cover data used in watershed studies. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 66(1):173-183. https://doi.org/10.17099/jffiu.21070

9. Bossard, M., Feranec, J., Otahel, J., 2000. CORINE Land Cover Technical Guide: Addendum 2000. Copenhagen, Denmark: European Environment Agency (EEA). https://is.muni.cz/el/sci/podzim2013/Z0131/um/ technical_guide_addenum.pdf Accessed: 12 August 2023
10. Büyüköztürk, Ş., 2010. Data Analysis Handbook for the Social Sciences. PagemAkademi, Ankara, Turkey.
11. Christenhusz, M.J., Byng, J.W., 2016. The number of known plants species in the world and its annual increase. Phytotaxa 261(3):201-217. http://dx.doi.org/10.11646/phytotaxa.261.3.1
12. Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, 2020. CORINE land cover. https://land.copernicus.eu/paneuropean/corine-land-cover Accessed: 24 April 2023
13. Çekirge, S., 2013. The effect of industrialization on urbanization: The case of Kırıkkale. Master's thesis, Institute of Social Sciences, Kirikkale University, Kırıkkale.
14. Dogan, S., Kilicoglu, C., Akinci, H., Sevik, H., Cetin, M., 2023. Determining the suitable settlement areas in Alanya with GIS-based site selection analyses. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(11):29180-29189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-24246-4
15. Dokuyucu, E., 2023. Türkiye’de yaşanan iç göçlerin kentsel politikalara etkisi. Journal of Academic Projection 8(1):1-26. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/beuiibfaid/issue/76518/1162743
16. Emmott, S., 2013. Ten billion. Knopf Doubleday Publishing, New York.
17. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 1995. Forest resources assessment 1990: global synthesis. FAO forestry Paper, 124:1-44. https://www.fao.org/3/v5695e/v5695e00.htm Accessed: 24 October 2023
18. FAO, 2010. Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2010. Main Report. FAO Forestry Paper #163.244 Rome, Italy. https://www.fao.org/3/i1757e/i1757e.pdf Accessed: 24 October 2023
19. FAO, 2022. The State of the World’s Forests 2022. Forest pathways for green recovery and building inclusive, resilient and sustainable economies. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb9360en Accessed: 17 August 2023
20. General Directorate of Forestry (GDF), 2020. Türkiye forest asset 2020. Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı Orman Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara. https://www.ogm.gov.tr/tr/ormanlarimiz-sitesi/TurkiyeOrmanVarligi/Yayinlar/2020%20T%C3%BCrkiye%20Orman%20Varl%C4%B1%C4%9F%C4%B1.pdf Accessed: 17 November 2023
21. Grassi, G., House, J., Dentener, F. et al.,2017. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nature Climate Change 7(3):220-226. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3227
22. Han, H., Yang, C., Song, J., 2015. Scenario simulation and the prediction of land use and land cover change in Beijing, China. Sustainability 7(4):4260-4279. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7044260
23. Heymann, Y., Steenmans, C., Croissille, G., Bossard, M. 1994. Corine Land Cover — technical guide. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259295513_Corine_Land_Cover_Technical_Guide_Part_I Accessed: 24 December 2023
24. Huang, Y., Yang, B., Wang, M., Liu, B., Yang, X., 2020. Analysis of the future land cover change in Beijing using CA–Markov chain model. Environmental Earth Sciences 79(2):60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8785-z
25. Ikiel, C., Ustaoglu, B., Dutucu, A.A., Kilic, D.E., 2013. Remote sensing and GIS-based integrated analysis of land cover change in Duzce plain and its surroundings (north western Turkey). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 185(2):1699-1709. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-012-2661-6
26. Işınkaralar, Ö., 2024. Spatio-temporal change of the morphology in west corridor development region of Ankara city and 2022-2039 growth estimation. Megaron, 19(1), 51–60. https://doi.org/10.14744/megaron.2024.85226
27. Isinkaralar, O., Isinkaralar, K., Ambade, B., 2024. Assessment of societal health risks: Spatial distribution and potential hazards of toxic metals in street dust across diverse communities. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution, 235(5), 302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-024-07104-6
28. Karaköse, M., 2020. Honaz (Denizli) orman planlama Birimi’nin damarlı bitkileri. Turkish Journal of Forestry 21(1):43-54. https://doi.org/10.18182/tjf.596878
29. Kaştan, Y., 2016. Inside the republican period of migration movements in Turkey. Journal of International Social Research 9(42):692-700. https://eds.p.ebscohost.com/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=1&sid=885cf0eb-1fc8-4b09-9065-0f1d57783b45%40redis Konukçu, F., Albut, S., Altürk, B., 2017. Land use/land cover change modelling of Ergene River Basin in western Türkiye using CORINE land use/land cover data. Agronomy Research 15(2), 435-443. https://agronomy.emu.ee/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Vol15nr2_Konukcu.pdf#abstract-5087 Accessed: 19 December 2023
30. Lagarias, A., Stratigea, A., 2023. Coastalization patterns in the Mediterranean: a spatiotemporal analysis of coastal urban sprawl in tourism destination areas. GeoJournal, 88, 2529–2552. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-022-10756-8
31. Lambin, E.F., Geist, H.J., Lepers, E., 2003. Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28(1):205-241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
32. Lele, N., Joshi, P.K., 2009. Analyzing deforestation rates, spatial forest cover changes and identifying critical areas of forest cover changes in North-East India during 1972–1999. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 156:159-170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-008-0472-6
33. Liu, D.S., Iverson, L.R., Brown, S., 1993. Rates and patterns of deforestation in the Philippines: application of geographic information system analysis. Forest Ecology and Management 57(1-4):1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-1127(93)90158-J
34. Luyssaert, S., Jammet, M., Stoy, P. et al., 2014. Land management and land-cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature. Nat. Clim. Change 4:389–393. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2196
35. Menon, S., Bawa, K.S. 1997. Applications of geographic information systems, remote-sensing, and a landscape ecology approach to biodiversity conservation in the Western Ghats. Current science 73(2):134-145. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24098267 Accessed: 27 November 2023
36. Msofe, N.K., Sheng, L., Lyimo, J., 2019. Land use change trends and their driving forces in the Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Southeastern Tanzania. Sustainability 11(2):505. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020505
37. Nagdeve, D.A., 2007. Population growth and environmental degradation in India. International Institute for Population Sciences. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Arvind-Singh21/post/What_is_the_role_of_population_growth_in_environmental_degradation_today/attachment/5ace505ab53d2f63c3c53e8d/AS%3A614293645041712%401523470426916/download/b36014d3dabbdd474f0bc73bb8a2e4fb1a62.pdf Accessed: 14 August 2023
38. Noss, R.F., 2001. Beyond Kyoto: Forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conservation Biology 15(3):578-590. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.015003578.x
39. Özdamar, K., 2002. Multivariate Statistical Analysis II (4th ed.). Kaan Kitabevi, Eskişehir, Turkey
40. Özhatay, N., Kültür, Ş., Gürdal, B., 2013. Check-list of additional taxa to the Supplement Flora of Turkey VI. Journal of Faculty of Pharmacy of Istanbul University 43:33-82. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/iujfp/issue/582/5854 Accessed: 19 August 2023
41. Özhatay, N., Kültür, Ş., Gürdal, B., 2015. Check-list of additional taxa to the Supplement Flora of Turkey VII. Journal of Faculty of Pharmacy of Istanbul University 45:61-86. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/iujfp/issue/25584/269882 Accessed: 19 August 2023
42. Özhatay, N., Kültür, Ş., Gürdal, B., 2017. Check-list of additional taxa to the supplement flora of Turkey VIII. Istanbul Journal of Pharmacy 47:31-46. https://doi.org/10.5152/IstanbulJPharm.2017.006
43. Özhatay, N., Kültür, Ş., Gürdal, B., 2019. Check-list of additional taxa to the supplement flora of Turkey IX. Istanbul Journal of Pharmacy, 49(2):105-120. https://doi.org/10.26650/IstanbulJPharm.2019.19037 Plieninger, T., Draux, H., Fagerholm, N., Bieling, C., Bürgi, M., Kizos, T., Verburg, P.H., 2016. The driving forces of landscape change in Europe: A systematic review of the evidence. Land use policy, 57, 204-214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.04.040
44. Puyravaud, J.P., 2003. Standardizing the calculation of the annual rate of deforestation. Forest ecology and management, 177(1-3):593-596. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(02)00335-3
45. Roy, P.S., Ramachandran, R.M., Paul, O. et al., 2022. Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes—A review on its environmental consequences and climate change. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 50(8):1615-1640. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-022-01569-w
46. Sari, H., Ozsahin, E., 2016. Spatiotemporal change in the LULC (Landuse/Landcover) characteristics of Tekirdag Province based on the CORINE (Thrace, Türkiye). Fresenius Environmental Bulletin 25(11):4694-4707 https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aysun-Kop/publication/322570988_PRELIMINARY_STUDY_FOR_UTILIZATION_OF_SOME_INVASIVE_AQUATIC_PLANTS_AS_RAW_MATERIAL_FOR_AQUACULTURE_FEEDS/links/5a608318aca272328103d389/PRELIMINARY-STUDY-FOR-UTILIZATION-OF-SOME-INVASIVE-AQUATIC-PLANTS-AS-RAW-MATERIAL-FOR-AQUACULTURE-FEEDS.pdf#page=243 Accessed: 25 October 2023
47. Şen, G., 2022. Population-Forest Interaction. In: Ecological, Economic and Political Assessments on Türkiye's Forests and Forestry (Ed: Şen, G., Güngör, E.), Duvar Publishing, New York, USA, pp:2-29
48. Sen, G., Bayramoglu, M.M., Toksoy, D., 2015. Spatiotemporal changes of land use patterns in high mountain areas of Northeast Turkey: a case study in Maçka. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 187:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-015-4727-8
49. Şen, G., Güngör, E., 2018. Analysis of land use/land cover changes following population movements and agricultural activities: a case study in northern Turkey. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research 16(2):2073-2088. http://dx.doi.org/10.15666/aeer/1602_20732088
50. Şen, G., Güngör, E., Şevik, H., 2018. Defining the effects of urban expansion on land use/cover change: a case study in Kastamonu, Turkey. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 190:1-13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-018-6831-z
51. Şen, G., Toksoy, D., 2006. Türkiye’de Nüfus orman ilişkisi. Ormancılıkta Sosyo-Ekonomik Sorunlar Kongresi, p.108-117, Ilgaz, Çankırı. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338745384_Turkiye’de_Nufus_Orman_Iliskisi Accessed: 19 November 2023
52. Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., Ulupinar, Y., Balta, I., 2008. Climate of Türkiye. Turkish State Meteorological Service https://www.mgm.gov.tr/FILES/genel/makale/13_turkiye _iklimi.pdf Accessed: 21 August 2023
53. Sherbinin, A.D., Carr, D., Cassels, S., Jiang, L., 2007. Population and environment. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 32:345-373. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.32.041306.100243
54. TC Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı (STB), 2023. Socio-Economic Development Ranking Research Reports (SEGE), https://www.sanayi.gov.tr/merkez-birimi/b94224510b7b/sege/il-sege-raporlari Accessed: 10 August 2023
55. Toh, F.A., Angwafo, T.E., Ndam, L.M., Antoine, M.Z., 2018. The socio-economic impact of land use and land cover change on the inhabitants of Mount Bambouto Caldera of the Western Highlands of Cameroon. Advances in Remote Sensing 7(01):25. https://doi.org/10.4236/ars.2018.71003
56. Toksoy, D., Ayaz, D., Şen, G., Özden, S., 2011. Forest–villager Relationship in Eastern Black Sea Region. Artvin Çoruh Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1):79-85. https://ofd.artvin.edu.tr/tr/pub/issue/2255/29715 Accessed: 15 December 2023
57. Trisurat, Y., Shirakawa, H., Johnston, J.M., 2019. Land-use/land-cover change from socio-economic drivers and their impact on biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand. Sustainability 11(3):649. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030649
58. Turner, B.L., Moss, R.H., Skole, D.L., 1993. Relating land use and global land-cover change; IGBP Report 24, HDP Report 5; International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: Stockholm, Sweden. http://www.igbp.net/publications/reportsandscienceplans/reportsandscienceplans/igbpreports124.5.950c2fa1495db7081e19d3.html Accessed: 30 August 2023
59. Turkish Statistical Institute (TUİK) (2023) Statistical data portal. www.tuik.gov.tr Accessed: 24 October 2023
60. Vural H, Dinç U, Öztürk N (1997) Sayısal uydu verileri yardımıyla arazi kullanım haritaları hazırlanmasının doğu akdeniz örneğinde araştırılması. III. Uzaktan Algılama ve Türkiye’deki Uygulamaları Semineri. Uludağ-Bursa. https://www.tufuab.org.tr/uploads/files/articles/sayisal-uydu-verileri-yardimiyla-arazi-kullanim-haritalarinin-dogu-akdeniz-kiyi-orneginde-a-1658.pdf Accessed: 19 November 2023
61. Walter V. Reid, Harold A. Mooney et al (2003) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Ecosystems and human wellbeing, A framework for assessment. The United Nations Environment Programme and World Resources Institute. https://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf Accessed: 11 November 2023 Winkler K, Fuchs R, Rounsevell M, Herold M (2021) Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nature communications, 12(1):2501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2
62. World Resources Institute (WRI), 2023. Forest Pulse: The Latest on the World’s Forests https://research.wri.org/gfr/latest-analysis-deforestation-trends Accessed: 30 December 2023
63. Wulder MA, Coops NC, Roy DP, White JC, Hermosilla T (2018) Land cover 2.0. International Journal of Remote Sensing 39(12):4254-4284. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1452075
64. Zeren Cetin I, Varol T, Ozel HB, Sevik H (2023) The effects of climate on land use/cover: a case study in Turkey by using remote sensing data. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(3):5688-5699. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22566-z