Endonezya'nın Batı Nusa Tenggara Bölgesi’nde bulunan Lombok Adası'ndaki arazi kullanımı ve arazi örtüsü değişimlerinin dinamik izleri

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2013-2022 yılları arasında Endonezya'nın Batı Nusa Tenggara Bölgesinde bulunan Lombok Adası'ndaki arazi kullanımı ve arazi örtüsü (AK/AÖ) değişimlerinin dinamik yörüngelerini incelemektedir. Çalışmada, Landsat uydu görüntüleri ve Endonezya Çevre ve Orman Bakanlığı'nın (MoEF) arazi örtüsü sınıfları, makine öğrenimi tabanlı Random Forest algoritması ile birleştirilerek sınıflandırma doğruluğunu artırmayı ve zaman içinde arazi örtüsü geçişlerini modellemeyi amaçladık. Nüfusla ilişkili arazi kullanımı değişimlerinin etkilerini ölçmek için yoğunluk analizi, arazi örtüsü değişimlerinin yönelimini belirlemek için ise yörünge analizi kullanılmıştır. Analiz, kentleşme, nüfus artışı ve altyapı gelişiminin etkisiyle birincil ve ikincil ormanlardan tarım arazilerine ve kentsel alanlara önemli geçişler olduğunu vurgulamaktadır. Özellikle, dönemde toplam orman alanının %24'üne denk gelen 28.095 hektarlık orman kaybı ve 2.453 hektarlık orman kazancı gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, çevresel baskıların hala devam ettiğini göstermektedir. Koruma çabalarına rağmen, hızlı ekonomik büyüme Lombok'un orman ekosistemleri üzerinde baskı oluşturmaya devam etmektedir. Bulgular, kalkınmayı ve ekolojik korumayı dengeleyerek gelecekteki orman kayıplarını azaltmayı hedefleyen sürdürülebilir arazi yönetimi politikalarının acil gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arazi kullanımı ve arazi örtüsü
• Lombok Adası
• Yoğunluk analizi
• Yörünge analizi

Dynamic trajectories of land use and land cover changes in Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Öz

This study investigates the dynamic trajectories of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Lombok Island, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, from 2013 to 2022. Utilizing Landsat satellite imagery and a combination of land cover classes from the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) with the machine learning-based Random Forest algorithm, we aimed to improve classification accuracy and model land cover transitions over time. Intensity analysis was used to measure the impact of population-related land use changes, while trajectory analysis quantified the directional shifts in land cover was employed to quantify and characterize these changes. The analysis highlights substantial transitions from primary and secondary forests to agricultural lands and urban areas, driven by urbanization, population growth, and infrastructure development. Specifically, the period saw a significant forest loss of 28,095 hectares, accounting for 24% of the total forest area, alongside a modest forest gain of 2,453 hectares, indicating ongoing environmental pressures. Despite conservation efforts, rapid economic growth continues to threaten Lombok's forest ecosystems. These findings underscore the urgent need for sustainable land management policies to balance development and ecological preservation while mitigating future forest losses.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Land use and land cover
• Lombok Island
• Intensity analysis
• Trajectory analysis

Teşekkür

This study is derived from the Master’s Thesis named "Assessing factors driving land use/land cover classes using machine learning, case study of Lombok Island-Indonesia" in the department of Forest Engineering, Institute of Graduate Education, Isparta University of Applied Sciences. Special thanks go to the Saujana Climate Community for their invaluable support and contributions throughout this research. Your assistance has been instrumental in ensuring the successful completion of this study.

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