Kantil regresyon ile gövde çapı modelinin geliştirilmesi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 22 Sayı: 3, 250 - 256, 30.09.2021

Ramazan Ozçelik , Onur Alkan , Şerife Kalkanlı

https://doi.org/10.18182/tjf.955881

Öz

Büyüme ve hasılat modellerinin en önemli bileşenlerinden birisi ağaç hacim tahminleridir. Hacim tahminleri amacıyla kullanılan en modern yaklaşımlardan birisi de gövde çapı modelleridir. Günümüze kadar farklı formlarda pek çok gövde çapı modeli geliştirilmiştir. Gövde çapı modellerinin geliştirilmesi amacıyla geleneksel doğrusal olmayan en küçük kareler (ONLS) yöntemi başta olmak üzere farklı regresyon teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Son yıllarda, ormancılık uygulamalarında ve gövde çapı modellerinin geliştirilmesi amacıyla Kantil Regresyon (QR) tekniği de kullanılmaya başlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, doğal karaçam meşcereleri için ONLS ve QR teknikleriyle Max ve Burkhart (1976) modelini temel alan gövde çapı modeli geliştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla, birbirinden bağımsız iki farklı karaçam meşceresinden örnek ağaç verileri elde edilmiş ve verilerin bir kısmı (grup I) model geliştirmek, diğer kısmı ise (grup II) ise geliştirilen modelin test edilmesi amacıyla kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada, QR tekniği iki farklı kantil setini (3QR ve 5QR) esas alarak kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, dört farklı değerlendirme ölçütü kullanılarak tüm ağaç gövdesi ve on farklı nisbi boy sınıfı için karşılaştırılmıştır. QR tekniği ile elde edilen gövde çapı tahminlerinin hem tüm gövde hem de farklı nispi boy sınıfları için ONLS ile elde edilen sonuçlara göre daha başarılı olduğu görülmüştür. Çap tahminleri için 3QR ile elde edilen sonuçlar, 5QR ile elde edilen sonuçlara göre nispeten daha başarılıdır. Sonuç olarak, QR tekniği de, gövde çapı tahminleri için diğer regresyon tekniklerine alternatif olarak kullanılabilecek bir yaklaşımdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kantil regresyon, Kantil seti, Gövde çapı, Karaçam

Destekleyen Kurum

Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK)

Proje Numarası

109 O 714

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmada kullanılan veriler, Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK) tarafından maddi olarak desteklenen (Proje No: 109 O 714) proje ile elde edilmiştir. Arazi çalışmalarındaki yardımlarından dolayı Orman Genel Müdürlüğü çalışanlarına da teşekkür ederiz. Yazarlardan Şerife KALKANLI Sürdürülebilir Ormancılık tematik alanında 100/2000 YÖK doktora bursiyeridir.

Development of stem diameter model using quantile regression

Öz

Tree volume estimates are one of the most important components of growth and yield models. Stem diameter models are one of the most modern approaches used for stem volume estimation. Different regression methods, especially the nonlinear least squares (ONLS) method, were used to develop stem diameter models. Recently, the quantile regression (QR) method has also been used in forestry applications for the development of taper models. In this study, a stem diameter model based on Max and Burkhart (1976) model was developed using ONLS and QR methods for natural black pine stands. For this purpose, sample tree data were obtained from two different black pine stands, and some of the data (group I) were used to develop the models and the rest of the data (group II) was used to test the models developed. In the study, the QR technique was used based on two different quantile sets (3QR and 5QR). The results were compared for the whole tree stem and ten different relative height classes using four different evaluation criteria. Evaluation statistics showed that both quantile regression models provided better results as compared to ONLS and 3QR model performed relatively better than 5QR. In conclusion, QR technique is an approach that can be used as an alternative to other regression techniques for stem diameter estimations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Quantile regression, Quantile set, Stem diameter, Black pine

Proje Numarası

109 O 714

Kaynakça

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