Türkiye’de orman ve arazi örtüsü değişimi: çevresel dönüşümlerin yönlendirilmesinde ekonomik faktörlerin rolü

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 176 - 189, 28.06.2024

Gökhan Şen , Emre Aktürk

https://doi.org/10.18182/tjf.1478110

Öz

Endüstriyel gelişmeler, kentleşme, iklim değişikliği, ekonomik gelişmeler ve diğer birçok faktör arazi kullanım tercihlerini önemli ölçüde etkileyerek arazi örtüsünde değişikliklere neden olmaktadır. Ancak bu değişimler ülke ölçeğinde homojen değildir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de 2006-2018 yılları arasında toplam ve il bazında arazi örtüsü değişimlerinin ve makroekonomik değişkenlerin bu değişimler üzerindeki etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. 2006-2018 yıllarına ait arazi örtüsü durumu ve bu dönemde meydana gelen değişimler Çevresel Bilginin Koordinasyonu (CORINE) sistemine göre belirlenmiştir. Bu amaçla beş arazi örtüsü sınıfı kullanılmıştır. Makroekonomik değişkenler ve örtü değişiklikleri arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek için korelasyon analizi ve makroekonomik değişkenlere dayalı olarak arazi örtüsünde gelecekteki değişiklikleri tahmin etmeyi amaçlayan modeller geliştirmek için regresyon analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırma bulguları, orman alanlarının %5,31'inin, tarım alanlarının %2,9'unun ve çalı ve/veya otsu bitki birliklerinin %7,19'unun diğer kullanımlara dönüştürüldüğünü göstermektedir. Bu dönemde Türkiye'de 38 ilde orman alanları artmış, 41 ilde azalmış, 2 ilde ise değişmemiştir. Orman alanlarının yüzde olarak en fazla arttığı il %19,98 ile Iğdır, en fazla azaldığı il ise %0,62 ile Ordu olmuştur. Orman alanlarındaki değişim ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (-0,310), otomobil sayısı (-0,308), motorlu taşıt sayısı (-0,326) ve yapı kullanım iznine göre bina sayısı (-0,287) arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir negatif korelasyon belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arazi kullanımı, Makro-ekonomik faktörler, CORINE, Türkiye

Spatiotemporal forest and land cover change in Türkiye: The role of economic factors in driving environmental transformations

Öz

Industrial advancements, urbanization, climate change, economic developments, and numerous other factors significantly influence land use preferences, subsequently causing changes in land cover. However, these changes are not homogeneus at the country scale. In this study, we aim to determine the total and provincial-based land cover changes in Türkiye between 2006 and 2018 and the impacts of macroeconomic variables on these changes. The land cover status for 2006 and 2018 and the changes occurring during this period were determined according to the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) system. For this purpose, five land cover classes were used. Correlation analysis was utilized to identify relationships between macroeconomic variables and cover changes and regression analysis was used to develop models aiming to predict future changes in land cover based on macroeconomic variables. Research findings indicate that 5.31% of forest areas, 2.9% of agricultural areas, and 7.19% of shrub and/or herbaceous vegetation associations have been converted to other uses. During this period, forest cover increased in 38 provinces in Türkiye, decreased in 41 provinces, and remained unchanged in two provinces. The province with the highest percentage increase in forest areas was Iğdır, at 19.98%, while the province with the most significant percentage decrease in forest areas was Ordu, at 0.62%. There was a statistically significant negative correlation between changes in forest areas and certain macroeconomic factors: gross domestic product (-0.310), number of automobiles (-0.308), number of motor vehicles (-0.326), and the number of buildings according to the building use permit (-0.287).

Anahtar Kelimeler

Land use, Macroeconomic factors, CORINE, Türkiye

Etik Beyan

All authors have read, understood, and have complied as applicable with the statement on “ethical responsibilities of authors” as found in the instructions for authors and are aware that with minor exceptions, no changes can be made to authorship once the paper is submitted.

Destekleyen Kurum

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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