THE CASE OF TURKEY IN SEARCH OF THE NEW ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP

Yıl 2022, , 22 - 42, 25.02.2022

Gizay Daver

https://doi.org/10.30520/tjsosci.1057368

Öz

This study was conducted to determine the relationship between economic growth and financial development in Turkey for the period 1998:Q1 to 2021:Q1. For this purpose, following traditional practices, economic growth is monitored using the real gross domestic products’ changes. Financial development(FD) of Turkey’s monitored by using two aspects of financial development that are found equally important. These aspects are ‘financial institutions development’(FID) and ‘financial markets development’(FMD). Within the scope of the study, which is designed as a time series study, unit root and stationarity process tests were performed. Finding the series stationary, vector autoregressive model (VAR) is proposed. After lag length selection with the stable model, impulse response(IR) analyses were performed. After the IR analyses variance decomposition was performed using the Cholesky method. Both the economic development and financial development are considered to be important for Turkey and they have a relationship. The variables used in the study were found to be representative but not enough to conduct political or financial decisions. With the digital transformation, new variables should also be searched to represent the financial development and economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Markets, Economic Development, Economic Growth, Financial Institutions and Services

FİNANSAL GELİŞMENİN YENİ YÖNLERİNİ ARAYIŞTA TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ: EKONOMIK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ve finansal gelişme arasındaki ilişkiyi 1998:Q1 - 2021:Q1 dönemi için belirlemek amacıyla yapılmıştır. Bu amaçla geleneksel uygulamalar takip edilerek, reel gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla değişimleri kullanılarak ekonomik büyüme izlenmektedir. Türkiye'nin finansal gelişimi (FD), finansal gelişmenin eşit derecede önemli bulunan iki yönü kullanılarak izlenmektedir. Bu yönler, 'finansal kurumların gelişimi' (FID) ve 'finansal piyasaların gelişimi' (FMD). Zaman serisi çalışması olarak tasarlanan çalışma kapsamında birim kök ve durağanlık süreç testleri yapılmıştır. Seriyi durağan bulan vektör otoregresif model (VAR) önerilmiştir. Kararlı model ile gecikme uzunluğu seçiminden sonra etkitepki (IR) analizleri yapılmıştır. IR analizlerinden sonra Cholesky yöntemi kullanılarak varyans ayrıştırması yapılmıştır. Hem ekonomik kalkınma hem de finansal kalkınma Türkiye için önemli kabul edilmekte ve aralarında bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan değişkenlerin temsil yeteneği olduğu ancak siyasi veya finansal kararlar almak için yeterli olmadığı görülmüştür. Dijital dönüşümle birlikte finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyümeyi temsil edecek yeni değişkenler de aranmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Piyasalar, Ekonomik Kalkınma, Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Kurumlar ve Hizmetler

Kaynakça

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