MODELING OF FLOODS IN GÜVENÇ BASIN, ANKARA USING HEC-HMS

Öz

The study was carried out in Guvenc Basin which is within the Sakarya Basin in Ankara. The drainage area of the basin is 15.247 km². In this study, two hydrological models based on Geographic Information Systems, namely HEC-HMS and HECGeo-HMS, were used, and the results were compared with the output produced by using synthetic methods. RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 climate change scenarios published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used to determine effects of climate change. 10x10km resolution downscaled datasets of earth system models of HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, CNRM-CM5.1 were examined for the study by using Regional Climate Models. Using historical data, current situation of the head of water over values for Guvenc Basin was determined and the impact of climate change on these values have been analyzed. As a result a risk profile was created. The riskiest head of water value was determined under RCP 4.5 scenario and HadGEM2-ES climate model. The value (h0) was determined as 1.76 m.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• guvenc basin,hec-hms,hadgem2-es,mpı-esm-mr,cnrm-cm5.1

Kaynakça

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