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Predicting Climate-induced Groundwater Depletion: A Case Study in Şuhut Alluvial Aquifer

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 145 - 176, 13.01.2022

Kübra Özdemir Çallı , Yasemin Taşcı , Mustafa Uzun , Yakup Karaaslan

https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685
Cited By: 1

Öz

In this study, we examined the potential impact of climate change on the depletion of groundwater levels and storage. To achieve so, we simulated the groundwater flow using the HİDROTÜRK hydrogeological model under the climate change projections considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. To estimate the model forcing input (recharge and evapotranspiration) for the hydrogeological model, we used precipitation and temperature outputs from two Global Circulation Models, namely HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR. To assess the changes in groundwater level and storage, we applied our experimental design in the Şuhut alluvial aquifer in Akarçay Basin (Turkey). The study revealed that there is not necessarily a substantial difference tracked over the estimated groundwater levels between the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios until the end of 2050s. Yet, a significant reduction in the hydraulic head (approximately 114 m) and storage change (-17.25 %) – particularly in the western part of the aquifer – is expected in 2100, according to RCP8.5. This study confirmed that the selected climate model not only leads to the different predictions in the groundwater depletion, yet also results in a different degree of confidence in the model simulations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Akarçay Basin Climate change impact Global circulation models (GCMs) Groundwater depletion Şuhut alluvial aquifer

Teşekkür

This research was carried out in the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Directorate General for Water Management. The HİDROTÜRK hydrogeological model developed by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Water Management (GDWM) for the sustainable management of the water resources in Turkey was used in the modelling experiment. Kübra Özdemir Çallı (KÇ) and Yasemin Taşcı (YT) were involved in the model conceptualism and data preparation for the numerical model development and set-up. KÇ carried out the model experimental design while YT implemented the experiment in the model. KÇ performed the post-processing of the obtained model results, thereby visualizing the plots in R-studio. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. The authors thank to Bilal Dikmen (General Directorate of Water Management), Mustafa Uzun (Deputy Director of General Directorate of Water Management), Nermin Anul (Head of Department of Monitoring and Water Information System), and Neşat Onur Şanlı (Supervisor of Modelling Working Group) for appreciating to carry out modelling studies in Turkey.

Kaynakça

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  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H., & Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Türkiye Su Bilimleri ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 1(1), 22-43. https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.297183
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  • Earman, S., & Dettinger, M. (2011). Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources– a global review. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2(4), 213-229. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2011.034
  • Her, Y., Yoo, S. H., Seong, C., Jeong, J., Cho, J., & Hwang, S. (2016). Comparison of uncertainty in multi-parameter and multi-model ensemble hydrologic analysis of climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-44. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-160
  • Fajardo, J., Corcoran, D., Roehrdanz, P. R., Hannah, L., & Marquet, P. A. (2020). GCM compareR: A web application to assess differences and assist in the selection of general circulation models for climate change research. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 11(5), 656-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13360\
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Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 145 - 176, 13.01.2022

Kübra Özdemir Çallı , Yasemin Taşcı , Mustafa Uzun , Yakup Karaaslan

https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685
Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin yeraltısuyu seviyesi ve depolanması üzerindeki olası etkisi incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda, RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 iklim değişikliği projeksiyonları altında, yeraltı suyu akımı HİDROTÜRK hidrojeoloji modeli kullanılarak simüle edilmiştir. Hidrojeoloji modelinde iklim girdilerinin (beslenme ve evapotranspirasyon) tahmini için, iki farklı Küresel Dolaşım Modelinin (GCM) – HadGEM2-ES ve MPI-ESM-MR – iklim çıktıları (yağış ve sıcaklık) kullanılmıştır. Yeraltı suyu seviyesinde ve depolamasında iklime bağlı değişimin iklim senaryoları gözetilerek karşılaştırmalı değerlendirilmesi amacıyla Akarçay Havzası'ndaki (Türkiye) Şuhut alüvyon akiferinde yeraltısuyu akım modeli kurulmuştur. Çalışma sonucunda, 2050'nin sonuna kadar RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 senaryolarının her ikisine göre, öngörülen yeraltı suyu seviyelerindeki düşüşlerin birbirinden çok farklı olmayacağı ortaya konmuştur. Öte yandan, RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre, bu yüzyılın sonuna kadar akiferdeki yük kaybının (yaklaşık 114 m) ve depolamadaki azalmanın (%-17.25) – özellikle akiferin Batı kesiminde – önemli ölçüde olabileceği öngörülmüştür. Çalışma ayrıca, iklim modellerinin seçiminin yalnızca farklı model tahminlerine yol açmadığını, aynı zamanda model simülasyonlarının da farklı güvenirlik derecesine yol açtığı sonucunu desteklemiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Akarçay Havzası iklim değişikliği etkisi küresel iklim modelleri yeraltısuyu azalımı Şuhut alüvyon akiferi.

Kaynakça

  • Bakker, M., Post, V. +., Langevin, C. D., Hughes, J. D., White, J. T., Starn, J. J., & Fienen, M. N. (2016). Scripting MODFLOW model development using Python and FloPy. Groundwater, 54(5), 733-739. https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.12413
  • Bovolo, C. I., Parkin, G., & Sophocleous, M. (2009). Groundwater resources, climate and vulnerability. Environmental Research Letters, 4(3), 035001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748- 9326/4/3/035001
  • Cramer, W., Guiot, J., & Marini, K. (2018). MedECC report: Risks associated to climate and environmental changes in the mediterranean region.
  • Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., & Woodward, S. (2011). Development and evaluation of an Earth- System model–HadGEM2. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(4), 1051-1075. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011
  • Demircan, M., Gürkan, H., Eskioğlu, O., Arabacı, H., & Coşkun, M. (2017). Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios. Türkiye Su Bilimleri ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 1(1), 22-43. https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.297183
  • Devlet Su İsleri Genel Müdürlüğü. (2013). Afyon Akarçay Havzası Yeraltısuyu Planlama (Hidrojeolojik Etüt) Raporu.
  • Dettinger, M. D., & Earman, S. (2007). Western ground water and climate change—pivotal to supply sustainability or vulnerable in its own right?. Ground Water Scientists and Engineers Newsletter, 4-5.
  • Dişli, E. (2005), Evrik modelleme tekniğinin yeraltı suyu akım modellerinde kullanılması: AfyonŞuhut Ovası. Yerbilimleri, 26(2), 33-47. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/yerbilimleri/issue/13628/165117
  • Domenico, P. A., & Schwartz, F. W. (1998). Physical and chemical hydrogeology (2nd ed.). New York: Wiley.
  • Döll, P. (2009). Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 4(3), 035006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/3/035006
  • Döll, P., & Flörke, M. (2005). Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 03: Global-Scale Estimation of Diffuse Groundwater Recharge. Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt University. https://www.unifrankfurt. de/45217767/FHP_03_Doell_Floerke_2005.pdf
  • Dragoni, W., & Sukhija, B. S. (2008). Climate change and groundwater: a short review. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 288(1), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP288.1
  • Earman, S., & Dettinger, M. (2011). Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater resources– a global review. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2(4), 213-229. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2011.034
  • Her, Y., Yoo, S. H., Seong, C., Jeong, J., Cho, J., & Hwang, S. (2016). Comparison of uncertainty in multi-parameter and multi-model ensemble hydrologic analysis of climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 1-44. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-160
  • Fajardo, J., Corcoran, D., Roehrdanz, P. R., Hannah, L., & Marquet, P. A. (2020). GCM compareR: A web application to assess differences and assist in the selection of general circulation models for climate change research. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 11(5), 656-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13360\
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2015a). An Akarçay Basin drought management plan.
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2015b). Akarçay Havzası kuraklık yönetim planı.
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2016). İklim değişikliğinin su kaynaklarına etkisi projesi proje nihai raporu.
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2017). Akarçay Havzası sektörel su tahsis planının hazırlanması projesi.
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  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2020b). Su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi için ülkemize özgü hidroloji, su kalitesi ve ekolojisi modelleme araçlarının geliştirilmesi projesi HİDROTÜRK.
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  • Healy, R. W., & Cook, P. G. (2002). Using groundwater levels to estimate recharge. Hydrogeology journal, 10(1), 91-109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-001-0178-0
  • Holman, I. P. (2006). Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge-uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward? Hydrogeology journal, 14(5), 637-647. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040- 005-0467-0
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  • Jones, C., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F. M., Andres, J. R., Bell, C., Boo, O. K., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, D. K., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gornall, J., Gray, L... & Zerroukat, M. (2011). The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geoscientific Model Development, 4(3), 543-570. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011
  • Kaczmarska, J., Jewson, S., & Bellone, E. (2018). Quantifying the sources of simulation uncertainty in natural catastrophe models. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 32(3), 591- 605. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1393-0
  • Kale, M. M. (2021). Akarçay Kapalı Havzası için hidrolojik kuraklık analizi. Coğrafya Dergisi, (42), 165-180. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/iucografya/issue/63677/892360
  • Kattenberg, A. (1996). Climate models: projections of future climate (No. CONF-960146-). American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA (United States).
  • Kundzewicz, Z.W., L.J. Mata, N.W. Arnell, P. Döll, P. Kabat, B. Jiménez, K.A. Miller, T. Oki, Z. Scen & I.A. Shiklomanov, (2007): Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg2-chapter3-1.pdf (last accessed 3 December 2021).
  • Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Döll, P. (2009). Will groundwater ease freshwater stress under climate change?. Hydrological sciences journal, 54(4), 665-675. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.54.4.665
  • Kuran, I. H. (1958). Şuhut Ovası’nın hidrojeolojik raporu [Unpublished report]. DSİ 18. Bölge Müdürlüğü yayını.
  • Kurylyk, B. L., & MacQuarrie, K. T. (2013). The uncertainty associated with estimating future groundwater recharge: A summary of recent research and an example from a small unconfined aquifer in a northern humid-continental climate. Journal of hydrology, 492, 244-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.043
  • Lehner, F., Wood, A. W., Vano, J. A., Lawrence, D. M., Clark, M. P., & Mankin, J. S. (2019). The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models. Nature Climate Change, 9(12), 926-933. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x
  • McGuffie, K., & Henderson-Sellers, A. (2014). The climate modelling primer. John Wiley & Sons.
  • McDonald, M. G., & Harbaugh, A. W. (1988). A modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model. US Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/twri06A1
  • Meteorological Service. (2014). İklim projeksiyonlarına göre akarsu havzalarında sıcaklık ve yağış değerlendirmesi.
  • Moseki, M. C. (2017). Climate change impacts on groundwater: literature review. Environmental Risk Assessment and Remediation, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.4066/2529-8046.100033
  • Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, R. T., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, A. G., Mitchell F. B. J., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, J. S., Stouffer J. R., Thomson M. A., Weyant, P. J., & Wilbanks, T. J. (2010). The next generation of scenarios for climate change research assessment. Nature, 463(7282), 747- 756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
  • Önder, S., & Önder, D. (2007). Evaluation of water resources on the basis of river basins and the probable changes to occur in basin management in the future due to global climate change. In International Congress: River Basin Management (Vol. 1, pp. 22-24). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237381367 (last accessed 13 December 2021)
  • Pour, S. H., Abd Wahab, A. K., & Shahid, S. (2020). Physical-empirical models for prediction of seasonal rainfall extremes of Peninsular Malaysia. Atmospheric Research, 233, 104720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104720
  • Parry, M., Parry, M. L., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., Van der Linden, P., & Hanson, C. (Eds.). (2007). Climate change 2007-impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Cambridge University Press.
  • Petpongpan, C., Ekkawatpanit, C., & Kositgittiwong, D. (2020). Climate change impact on surface water and groundwater recharge in Northern Thailand. Water, 12(4), 1029. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12041029
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  • Salman, S. A., Nashwan, M. S., Ismail, T., & Shahid, S. (2020). Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia. Hydrology Research, 51(4), 781-798. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2020.154
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  • Stocker, T. (Ed.). (2014). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
  • Surfleet, C. G., Tullos, D., Chang, H., & Jung, I. W. (2012). Selection of hydrologic modeling approaches for climate change assessment: A comparison of model scale and structures. Journal of Hydrology, 464, 233-248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.07.012.
  • Taylor, R. G., Scanlon, B., Döll, P., Rodell, M., Van Beek, R., Wada, Y., Longuevergne, L., Leblanc, M., Famiglietti, S. J., Edmunds, M., Konikow, L., Green, R. T., Chen, J., Taniguchi, M., Bierkens, F. P. M., MacDonald, A., Fan, Y., Maxwell, M. R., Yechieli, Y... & Treidel, H. (2013). Ground water and climate change. Nature climate change, 3(4), 322-329. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1744
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  • Tezcan, L., Meriç, T., Doğdu, N., Akan, B., Atilla, Ö., & Kurttaş, T. (2002). Akarçay Havzası hidrojeolojisi ve yeraltı suyu akım modeli final raporu. Hacettepe Üniversitesi UKAM, Ankara.
  • Thornthwaite, C. W. (1948). An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical review, 38(1), 55-94.
  • Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, C. G., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, J. S., & Rose, S. K. (2011). The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic change, 109(1), 5-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
  • Wada, Y., Van Beek, L. P., Wanders, N., & Bierkens, M. F. (2013). Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide. Environmental Research Letters, 8(3), 034036. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034036
  • Wada, Y., Wisser, D., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014). Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources. Earth System Dynamics 5(1), 15– 40. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-15-2014
  • Wisser, D., Frolking, S., Douglas, E. M., Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., & Schumann, A. H. (2008). Global irrigation water demand: Variability and uncertainties arising from agricultural and climate data sets. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(24). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035296
  • Woldeamlak, S. T., Batelaan, O., & De Smedt, F. (2007). Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium. Hydrogeology Journal, 15(5), 891- 901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-006-0145-x
Toplam 65 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm TÜRKİYE SU BİLİMLERİ VE YÖNETİMİ DERGİSİ
Yazarlar

Kübra Özdemir Çallı

Yasemin Taşcı

Mustafa Uzun

Yakup Karaaslan

Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Ocak 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Özdemir Çallı, K., Taşcı, Y., Uzun, M., Karaaslan, Y. (2022). Predicting Climate-induced Groundwater Depletion: A Case Study in Şuhut Alluvial Aquifer. Turkish Journal of Water Science and Management, 6(1), 145-176. https://doi.org/10.31807/tjwsm.947685

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