Araştırma Makalesi
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Liderlik Önemli Mi? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani ve İran Dış Politikasının Değişimi

Yıl 2024, , 31 - 48, 13.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1450484

Öz

Rouhani’nin 2013 cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanmasının ardından, İran'ın dış politikası, Ahmadinejad döneminin üzerinden geçen on yılın ardından önemli değişikliklere uğramıştır. Lider değişiminin İran’ın ABD ve AB'ye karşı politikasındaki farkların belirleyici faktörü olduğunu savunan geniş bir literatürün varlığına ragmen, yalnızca birkaç çalışma bu değişimi birey düzeyindeki bir dış politika kuramı ile açıklamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Ahmadinejad ve Rouhani'nin liderlik tarzlarını analiz ederek karar alıcıların kişilik ve liderlik özelliklerinin dış politika üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya koymayı ve İran dış politikasındaki değişimin bir açıklamasını geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışma şu soruya yanıt aramaktadır: “Liderlik tarzı İran’ın Batı dünyası’na karşı dış politikasını nasıl etkilemektedir?” Çalışma, Hermann'ın ‘Liderlik Kişilik Analizi’nden liderlerin bireysel özelliklerinin devletlerin dış politika davranışları üzerindeki etkisini belirlemek için faydalanmaktadır. Ampirik olarak, çalışma her iki başkanın da rastgele seçilmiş politik konuşmalarını, röportajlardaki ve basın toplantılarındaki cevapları Profiler Plus yazılımını kullanarak analiz etmektedir. İki başkanın liderlik kişilik analizi sonuçlarını yorumlayarak, belirli liderlik özelliklerinin daha ılımlı dış politikaların oluşturulmasına izin verdiği sonucuna varmaktadır.

Etik Beyan

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Destekleyen Kurum

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Teşekkür

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Kaynakça

  • Allison, G. T. (1969). Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis. American Political Science Review, 63, 689-718.
  • Ansari, A. M. (2007). Iran Under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation. Routledge.
  • Beeman, W. O. (2013). US-Iran Relations: Mutually Assured Estrangement. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2010). Foreign Policy Analysis and Rational Choice Models. In R. Denemark (Ed.). ISA Compendium.
  • Dyson, S. B. (2006). Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq Decisions. Foreign Policy Analysis, 2(2), 289–306.
  • Entessar, N. (2013). Iran’s Nuclear Program and Foreign Policy. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Fathi, N. (2014). The Rouhani Paradox: Iran's President Came to Office Promising Liberalization and a Better Relationship with the West. But Can He Really Have Both? Foreign Policy Available at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/13/the-rouhani-paradox.
  • Fuhrmann, M. & B. R. Early. (2008). Following START: Risk Acceptance and the 1991-92 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives. Foreign Policy Analysis, 4(1), 21-43.
  • Görener, A. Ş., & M. Ş. Ucal. (2011). The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy. Turkish Studies, 12(3), 357-381.
  • Hermann, C. F. (1995). Epilogue: Reflections on Foreign Policy Theory Building. In L. Neack, J. A. K. Hey, & P. J. Haney. Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in its Second Generation. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Hermann, M. G. (2003). Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis. In J. M. Post (Ed.). The Psychological Assesment of Political Leaders: With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Hermann, M. G., & C. F. Hermann. (1989). Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How. International Studies Quarterly, 33(4), 361-387.
  • Holsti, K. J. (1970). National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy. International Studies Quarterly, 14(3), 233-309.
  • Hudson, V. (2007). Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Juneau, T. & Razavi, S. (2013). Introduction: Alone in the World. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Kesgin, Barış. (2012). Tansu Çiller's Leadership Traits and Foreign Policy. Perceptions, 18(3), 29-50.
  • Kozhanov, N. (2018). Iran’s Strategic Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy, 1979-2018. Gerlach Press. Levy, J. (1992). Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems. Political Psychology, 13(2), 283-310.
  • Levy, J. S. (1997). Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 87–112.
  • Milani, M. (2013). Rouhani’s Foreign Policy: How to Work with Iran’s Pragmatic New President. Foreign Affairs. Available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139531/mohsen-milani/rouhanis-foreign-policy.
  • Mintz, A (Ed). (2003). Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Monshipouri, M. & Dorraj, M. (2013). Iran's Foreign Policy: A Shifting Strategic Landscape. Middle East Policy Council. Available at http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/irans-foreign-policy-shifting-strategic-landscape.
  • Post, J. M., (Ed). (2003). The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Renfro, W. B. (2008). Comparing George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush Using Leadership Trait Analysis: An Initial Analysis. Paper presented for the ISA Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, March 26-29.
  • Rezaian, J. (2013). Iranian President Hassan Rouhani takes diplomatic tone at military event. The Washington Post. September, 22.
  • Roshandel, J. (2013). Iran: Foreign-Policy Strategic Thinking in the Twenty-First Century. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.) Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Rosati, J. A. (1995). A Cognitive Approach to the Study of Foreign Policy. In L. Neack, J. A. K. Hey, & P. J. Haney (Eds.). Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in its Second Generation. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Rosenau, J. (1987). Roles and Role Scenarios in Foreign Policy. In S. G. Walker (Ed.), Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis. 44-65. NC: Duke University Press.
  • Stein, J. G., & D. A. Welch. (1997). Rational and Psychological Approaches to the Study of International Conflict. In N. Geva & A. Mintz (Eds.) Decisionmaking on War and Peace. Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Tabaar, M. A. (2014). Strategic anti-Americanism in Iran from the hostage crisis to nuclear talks. The Washington Post. November, 4.
  • Walker, S. G. (1983). The Motivational Foundations of Political Belief Systems: A Re-Analysis of the Operational Code Construct. International Studies Quarterly, 27(2), 179-202.
  • Walker, S. G., A. Malici, & M. Schafer (Eds). (2011). Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations. 83-96. Routledge.
  • Walker, S. G., M. Schafer, & M. Young. (1998). Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis. International Studies Quarterly, 42(1), 175-190.
  • Willner, A. R. (1985). The Spellbinders: Charismatic Political Leadership. Yale University Press.
  • Winter, D. G. (1973). The Power Motive. New York: Free Press.
  • Winter, D. G., & A. J. Stewart. (1977). Content Analysis as a Method of Studying Political Leaders. In M. G. Hermann (Eds.) A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
  • Yang, Y. E. (2010). Leaders’ Conceptual Complexity and Foreign Policy Change: Comparing the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush Foreign Policies toward China. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3, 415–446.
  • Zarif, M. J. (2014). Mohammad Javad Zarif: Iran is committed to a peaceful nuclear program. The Washington Post. June, 13.
  • Ziller, R. C., Stone, W. F., Jackson, R. M., & Terbovic, N. J. (1977). Self-Other Orientations and Political Behavior. In M. G. Hermann (Ed.). A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
  • “GCU congratulates alumnus Hassan Rouhani on his election as the next President of Iran.” June 19, 2013. Available at https://www.theiranproject.com/en/news/33928/gcu-congratulates-alumnus-hassan-rouhani-on-his-election-as-the-next-president-of-iran
  • “President of Iran Hassan Rouhani: Time to engage,” The Washington Post, September 19, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-of-iran-hassan-rouhani-time-to-engage/2013/09/19/4d2da564-213e-11e3-966c-9c4293c47ebe_story.html.

Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy

Yıl 2024, , 31 - 48, 13.06.2024
https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1450484

Öz

Following Rouhani's victory in the 2013 presidential elections, Iran's foreign policy (IFP) underwent significant changes after over a decade under Ahmadinejad. To date, only a few academic studies have attempted to incorporate a specific individual-level theory into their respective analyses, even though a large body of literature contends that leadership change is the decisive factor in differences in Iran's policy towards the US and the EU. This study analyzes the leadership styles of Ahmadinejad and Rouhani to reveal the possible impact of decision-maker personalities on foreign policy, and to develop an account of the moderation in IFP. Accordingly, it asks, “How does leadership style influence IFP towards the 'Western world'?" Theoretically, the study benefits from Hermann’s ‘Leadership Trait Analysis’ to find out the impact of leaders’ personalities on foreign policy behaviors of states. Empirically, it analyzes both presidents’ spontaneously selected political speeches, consisting of their answers in interviews and press conferences. Methodologically, the study utilizes the software Profiler Plus to assess individual traits of leaders. Interpreting leadership trait scores of two presidents, the study concludes that certain leadership features allow the construction of foreign policies that are more moderate.

Kaynakça

  • Allison, G. T. (1969). Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis. American Political Science Review, 63, 689-718.
  • Ansari, A. M. (2007). Iran Under Ahmadinejad: The Politics of Confrontation. Routledge.
  • Beeman, W. O. (2013). US-Iran Relations: Mutually Assured Estrangement. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Bueno de Mesquita, B. (2010). Foreign Policy Analysis and Rational Choice Models. In R. Denemark (Ed.). ISA Compendium.
  • Dyson, S. B. (2006). Personality and Foreign Policy: Tony Blair’s Iraq Decisions. Foreign Policy Analysis, 2(2), 289–306.
  • Entessar, N. (2013). Iran’s Nuclear Program and Foreign Policy. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Fathi, N. (2014). The Rouhani Paradox: Iran's President Came to Office Promising Liberalization and a Better Relationship with the West. But Can He Really Have Both? Foreign Policy Available at http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/06/13/the-rouhani-paradox.
  • Fuhrmann, M. & B. R. Early. (2008). Following START: Risk Acceptance and the 1991-92 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives. Foreign Policy Analysis, 4(1), 21-43.
  • Görener, A. Ş., & M. Ş. Ucal. (2011). The Personality and Leadership Style of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy. Turkish Studies, 12(3), 357-381.
  • Hermann, C. F. (1995). Epilogue: Reflections on Foreign Policy Theory Building. In L. Neack, J. A. K. Hey, & P. J. Haney. Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in its Second Generation. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Hermann, M. G. (2003). Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis. In J. M. Post (Ed.). The Psychological Assesment of Political Leaders: With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Hermann, M. G., & C. F. Hermann. (1989). Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How. International Studies Quarterly, 33(4), 361-387.
  • Holsti, K. J. (1970). National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy. International Studies Quarterly, 14(3), 233-309.
  • Hudson, V. (2007). Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. Juneau, T. & Razavi, S. (2013). Introduction: Alone in the World. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Kesgin, Barış. (2012). Tansu Çiller's Leadership Traits and Foreign Policy. Perceptions, 18(3), 29-50.
  • Kozhanov, N. (2018). Iran’s Strategic Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy, 1979-2018. Gerlach Press. Levy, J. (1992). Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical Problems. Political Psychology, 13(2), 283-310.
  • Levy, J. S. (1997). Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 87–112.
  • Milani, M. (2013). Rouhani’s Foreign Policy: How to Work with Iran’s Pragmatic New President. Foreign Affairs. Available at http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139531/mohsen-milani/rouhanis-foreign-policy.
  • Mintz, A (Ed). (2003). Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Monshipouri, M. & Dorraj, M. (2013). Iran's Foreign Policy: A Shifting Strategic Landscape. Middle East Policy Council. Available at http://www.mepc.org/journal/middle-east-policy-archives/irans-foreign-policy-shifting-strategic-landscape.
  • Post, J. M., (Ed). (2003). The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders With Profiles of Saddam Hussein and Bill Clinton. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Renfro, W. B. (2008). Comparing George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush Using Leadership Trait Analysis: An Initial Analysis. Paper presented for the ISA Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, March 26-29.
  • Rezaian, J. (2013). Iranian President Hassan Rouhani takes diplomatic tone at military event. The Washington Post. September, 22.
  • Roshandel, J. (2013). Iran: Foreign-Policy Strategic Thinking in the Twenty-First Century. In T. Juneau & S. Razavi (Eds.) Iranian Foreign Policy Since 2001: Alone in the World. Routledge.
  • Rosati, J. A. (1995). A Cognitive Approach to the Study of Foreign Policy. In L. Neack, J. A. K. Hey, & P. J. Haney (Eds.). Foreign Policy Analysis: Continuity and Change in its Second Generation. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
  • Rosenau, J. (1987). Roles and Role Scenarios in Foreign Policy. In S. G. Walker (Ed.), Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis. 44-65. NC: Duke University Press.
  • Stein, J. G., & D. A. Welch. (1997). Rational and Psychological Approaches to the Study of International Conflict. In N. Geva & A. Mintz (Eds.) Decisionmaking on War and Peace. Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Tabaar, M. A. (2014). Strategic anti-Americanism in Iran from the hostage crisis to nuclear talks. The Washington Post. November, 4.
  • Walker, S. G. (1983). The Motivational Foundations of Political Belief Systems: A Re-Analysis of the Operational Code Construct. International Studies Quarterly, 27(2), 179-202.
  • Walker, S. G., A. Malici, & M. Schafer (Eds). (2011). Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations. 83-96. Routledge.
  • Walker, S. G., M. Schafer, & M. Young. (1998). Systematic Procedures for Operational Code Analysis. International Studies Quarterly, 42(1), 175-190.
  • Willner, A. R. (1985). The Spellbinders: Charismatic Political Leadership. Yale University Press.
  • Winter, D. G. (1973). The Power Motive. New York: Free Press.
  • Winter, D. G., & A. J. Stewart. (1977). Content Analysis as a Method of Studying Political Leaders. In M. G. Hermann (Eds.) A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
  • Yang, Y. E. (2010). Leaders’ Conceptual Complexity and Foreign Policy Change: Comparing the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush Foreign Policies toward China. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3, 415–446.
  • Zarif, M. J. (2014). Mohammad Javad Zarif: Iran is committed to a peaceful nuclear program. The Washington Post. June, 13.
  • Ziller, R. C., Stone, W. F., Jackson, R. M., & Terbovic, N. J. (1977). Self-Other Orientations and Political Behavior. In M. G. Hermann (Ed.). A Psychological Examination of Political Leaders. New York: Free Press.
  • “GCU congratulates alumnus Hassan Rouhani on his election as the next President of Iran.” June 19, 2013. Available at https://www.theiranproject.com/en/news/33928/gcu-congratulates-alumnus-hassan-rouhani-on-his-election-as-the-next-president-of-iran
  • “President of Iran Hassan Rouhani: Time to engage,” The Washington Post, September 19, 2013. Available at http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-of-iran-hassan-rouhani-time-to-engage/2013/09/19/4d2da564-213e-11e3-966c-9c4293c47ebe_story.html.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Cagla Luleci Sula 0000-0002-0534-8271

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 2 Mayıs 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 13 Haziran 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 11 Mart 2024
Kabul Tarihi 19 Nisan 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024

Kaynak Göster

APA Luleci Sula, C. (2024). Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy. Türkiye Ortadoğu Çalışmaları Dergisi, 11(1), 31-48. https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1450484

Creative Commons Lisansı

TOÇD'nde yayınlanan makaleler Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı ile lisanslanmıştır.