Liderlik Önemli Mi? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani ve İran Dış Politikasının Değişimi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 31 - 48, 13.06.2024

Cagla Luleci Sula

https://doi.org/10.26513/tocd.1450484

Öz

Rouhani’nin 2013 cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerini kazanmasının ardından, İran'ın dış politikası, Ahmadinejad döneminin üzerinden geçen on yılın ardından önemli değişikliklere uğramıştır. Lider değişiminin İran’ın ABD ve AB'ye karşı politikasındaki farkların belirleyici faktörü olduğunu savunan geniş bir literatürün varlığına ragmen, yalnızca birkaç çalışma bu değişimi birey düzeyindeki bir dış politika kuramı ile açıklamaktadır. Bu çalışma, Ahmadinejad ve Rouhani'nin liderlik tarzlarını analiz ederek karar alıcıların kişilik ve liderlik özelliklerinin dış politika üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya koymayı ve İran dış politikasındaki değişimin bir açıklamasını geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışma şu soruya yanıt aramaktadır: “Liderlik tarzı İran’ın Batı dünyası’na karşı dış politikasını nasıl etkilemektedir?” Çalışma, Hermann'ın ‘Liderlik Kişilik Analizi’nden liderlerin bireysel özelliklerinin devletlerin dış politika davranışları üzerindeki etkisini belirlemek için faydalanmaktadır. Ampirik olarak, çalışma her iki başkanın da rastgele seçilmiş politik konuşmalarını, röportajlardaki ve basın toplantılarındaki cevapları Profiler Plus yazılımını kullanarak analiz etmektedir. İki başkanın liderlik kişilik analizi sonuçlarını yorumlayarak, belirli liderlik özelliklerinin daha ılımlı dış politikaların oluşturulmasına izin verdiği sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hassan Rouhani, İran Dış Politikası, Liderlik, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Orta Doğu

Etik Beyan

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Destekleyen Kurum

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Teşekkür

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Does Leadership Matter? Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, and the Change in Iranian Foreign Policy

Öz

Following Rouhani's victory in the 2013 presidential elections, Iran's foreign policy (IFP) underwent significant changes after over a decade under Ahmadinejad. To date, only a few academic studies have attempted to incorporate a specific individual-level theory into their respective analyses, even though a large body of literature contends that leadership change is the decisive factor in differences in Iran's policy towards the US and the EU. This study analyzes the leadership styles of Ahmadinejad and Rouhani to reveal the possible impact of decision-maker personalities on foreign policy, and to develop an account of the moderation in IFP. Accordingly, it asks, “How does leadership style influence IFP towards the 'Western world'?" Theoretically, the study benefits from Hermann’s ‘Leadership Trait Analysis’ to find out the impact of leaders’ personalities on foreign policy behaviors of states. Empirically, it analyzes both presidents’ spontaneously selected political speeches, consisting of their answers in interviews and press conferences. Methodologically, the study utilizes the software Profiler Plus to assess individual traits of leaders. Interpreting leadership trait scores of two presidents, the study concludes that certain leadership features allow the construction of foreign policies that are more moderate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hassan Rouhani, Iranian Foreign Policy, Leadership, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Middle East

Kaynakça

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