Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye

Oğuz Tümtürk

EN TR

Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye

Öz

This article mainly investigates the relationship between monetary policy and inflation in Türkiye. We also consider the impact of inflation expectations on domestic inflation. The inflation data in Türkiye reveals outliers due to frequently occurred political and economic instabilities, and hence exhibits tail dynamics. We differ from the traditional literature and aim to capture the asymmetry in the data by quantile regressions. Our results first show that monetary policy generates price puzzle. Second, we reveal that inflation expectations are crucial in the fight against inflation. Insignificant inflation responses of demand changes and recent distortions of inflation expectations both may explain why the demand channel has failed and domestic prices rise after an increase in interest rates. Third, our results imply that the lack of a proper international economic environment is also responsible for price increases. Finally, the results are robust to the use of alternative specifications, different measurement of monetary policy change and existence of structural breaks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Monetary Policy, Price Puzzle, Asymmetry

Para politikası, fiyat bulmacası ve enflasyon beklentileri: Türkiye’den kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma temel olarak, Türkiye de uygulanan para politikası ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Ayrıca, çalışmada enflasyon beklentilerinin enflasyon üzerinde yarattığı etki de göz önüne alınmaktadır. Türkiye’ye ait enflasyon verisi sıklıkla karşılaşılan politik ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar nedeniyle istatistiki olarak aşırılıklar göstermektedir. Bu çalışma geleneksel literatürden ayrılmakta ve enflasyon verisinin sahip olduğu asimetriyi kantil regresyonlar aracılığıyla analiz etmektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre para politikası fiyat bulmacası yaratmaktadır. İkinci olarak, enflasyon beklentileri de enflasyon ile mücadelede önemli bir faktör olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Talep değişimlerinin istatistiki olarak anlamlı olmayan enflasyon tepkisi ile enflasyon beklentilerinde son dönemde meydana gelen bozulma, talep kanalının neden çalışmadığını ve faiz artışına karşılık fiyatların da neden arttığını açıklayabilir. Üçüncü olarak, uluslararası koşulların elverişli olmaması da fiyat artışları üzerinde etkilidir. Son olarak, elde edilen sonuçlar farklı spesifikasyonlara, para politikası değişimleri için kullanılan farklı faiz oranına ve yapısal kırılmalara karşı dayanıklıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para Politikası, Fiyat Bulmacası, Asimetri

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Enflasyon

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Oğuz Tümtürk ^*
0000-0002-1935-0858
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

30 Haziran 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

2 Ocak 2025

Kabul Tarihi

6 Mart 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 1

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF

APA

Tümtürk, O. (2025). Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-Dergi, 14(1), 14-28. https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF

AMA

1.Tümtürk O. Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye. TİFE. 2025;14(1):14-28. https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF

Chicago

Tümtürk, Oğuz. 2025. “Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye”. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-Dergi 14 (1): 14-28. https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF.

EndNote

Tümtürk O (01 Haziran 2025) Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-Dergi 14 1 14–28.

IEEE

[1]O. Tümtürk, “Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye”, TİFE, c. 14, sy 1, ss. 14–28, Haz. 2025, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF

ISNAD

Tümtürk, Oğuz. “Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye”. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-Dergi 14/1 (01 Haziran 2025): 14-28. https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF.

JAMA

1.Tümtürk O. Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye. TİFE. 2025;14:14–28.

MLA

Tümtürk, Oğuz. “Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye”. Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-Dergi, c. 14, sy 1, Haziran 2025, ss. 14-28, https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF.

Vancouver

1.Oğuz Tümtürk. Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye. TİFE [Internet]. 01 Haziran 2025;14(1):14-28. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA29LK39XF

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Monetary policy, the price puzzle and inflation expectations: evidence from Türkiye

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para politikası, fiyat bulmacası ve enflasyon beklentileri: Türkiye’den kanıtlar

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

IZ

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