Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance

Emre Bulut

doi:10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

TR EN

Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance

Öz

This article examines the impact of WTI crude oil prices on nine city indices traded on the BIST, using daily data from 2014 to 2024. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and FMOLS estimation to investigate the long-term relationship between oil prices and city indices. The results indicate that oil prices and city indices exhibit a symmetrical and significant relationship in the long run, with different degrees of impact across city indices. The XSANT Index, comprising companies in and around Antalya province, is the most influenced by crude oil prices, whereas the XSIST Index, comprising companies in Istanbul province, is the least affected. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers who need to monitor oil price fluctuations and their effects on financial market indices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Crude oil prices, BIST, FMOLS, Cointengency, City Indicies

Kaynakça

Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K., & Dissani, B. M. (2022). The impact of climate variability and change on food security in sub-saharan africa: perspective from panel data analysis. Sustainability, 14(2), 759. [CrossRef]
Alt, J. E. (1987). Crude politics: Oil and the political economy of unemployment in Britain and Norway, 1970–85. British Journal of Political Science, 17(2), 149-199. [CrossRef]
Atmaca, V. D. (2018). BİST şehir endeksleri oynaklığının DCCGARCH model ile analizi. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(31), 287-308. [CrossRef]
Azhgaliyeva, D., Kapsalyamova, Z., & Mishra, R. (2022). Oil price shocks and green bonds: An empirical evidence. Energy Economics, 112, 106108. [CrossRef]
Barrell, R., Delannoy, A., & Holland, D. (2011). The impact of high oil prices on the economy. National Institute Economic Review, 217(1), F68-F74. [CrossRef]
Basher, S. A., Haug, A. A., & Sadorsky, P. (2012). Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets. Energy Economics, 34(1), 227-240. [CrossRef]
Birol, F. (2007). World energy outlook 2007: China and India insights. Council on Foreign Relations, Inside CFR Events podcast, MP3 file, 1, 02-17. [CrossRef]
Bulut, Ö. U., & Yılmaz, H. (2020). Finansal liberalizasyonun uzun dönemde istihdam yaratıcı etkisinin FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemi ile analizi. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 1(2), 53-59. [CrossRef]
Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 383-403. [CrossRef]
Chiou, J., Lee, Y., & Lin, C. (2008). Existence of a long-run equilibrium between the S&P 500 and oil prices. International Research Journal of Finance & Economics, 21, 68-75.

Clements, A., Shield, C., & Thiele, S. (2019). Which oil shocks really matter in equity markets?. Energy Economics, 81, 134-141. [CrossRef]
Cologni, A., & Manera, M. (2008). Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 30(3), 856-888. [CrossRef]
Cong, R. G., Wei, Y. M., Jiao, J. L., & Fan, Y. (2008). Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3544-3553. [CrossRef]
Cunado, J., & De Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83. [CrossRef]
Das, D., & Kannadhasan, M. (2020). The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 69, 563-581. [CrossRef]
Dayanandan, A., & Donker, H. (2011). Oil prices and accounting profits of oil and gas companies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 20(5), 252-257. [CrossRef]
Diaz, E. M., & De Gracia, F. P. (2017). Oil price shocks and stock returns of oil and gas corporations. Finance Research Letters, 20, 75-80. [CrossRef]
Driesprong, G., Jacobsen, B., & Maat, B. (2008). Striking oil: another puzzle?. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(2), 307-327. [CrossRef]
Elwood, S. K. (2001). Oil-price shocks: beyond standard aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis. The Journal of Economic Education, 32(4), 381-386. [CrossRef]
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 251-276. [CrossRef]
Engle, R. F., & Yoo, B. S. (1987). Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems. Journal of Econometrics, 35(1), 143-159. [CrossRef]
Faff, R. W., & Brailsford, T. J. (1999). Oil price risk and the Australian stock market. Journal of Energy Finance & Development, 4(1), 69-87. [CrossRef]
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49. [CrossRef]
Ferson, W. E., & Harvey, C. R. (1993). The risk and predictability of international equity returns. Review of Financial Studies, 6(3), 527-566. [CrossRef]
Ferson, W. E., & Harvey, C. R. (1995). Predictability and time-varying risk in world equity markets. Research in Finance, 13, 25-88. [CrossRef]
Geman, H., & Kharoubi, C. (2008). WTI crude oil futures in portfolio diversification: The time-to-maturity effect. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(12), 2553-2559. [CrossRef]
Gujarati, D. N. (2002). Basic Econometrics 4th ed., 724-729.
Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248. [CrossRef]
Hamilton, J. D. (1985). Historical causes of postwar oil shocks and recessions. The Energy Journal, 6(1), 97-116. [CrossRef]
Huang, R. D., Masulis, R. W., & Stoll, H. R. (1996). Energy shocks and financial markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 16(1), 1-27. [CrossRef]
Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228. [CrossRef]
Johansen, S. (1988a). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. [CrossRef]
Johansen, S. (1991b). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica: jjurnal of the Econometric Society, 1551-1580. [CrossRef]
Johansen, S. (1995c). Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 69(1), 111-132. [CrossRef]
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with appucations to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. [CrossRef]
Jones, C. M., & Kaul, G. (1996). Oil and the stock markets. The Journal of Finance, 51(2), 463-491. [CrossRef]
Kandir, S. Y. (2008). Macroeconomic variables, firm characteristics and stock returns: Evidence from Turkey. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 16(1), 35-45. [CrossRef]
Kaneko, T., & Lee, B. S. (1995). Relative importance of economic factors in the US and Japanese stock markets. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 9(3), 290-307. [CrossRef]
Kang, W., De Gracia, F. P., & Ratti, R. A. (2017). Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 70, 344-359. [CrossRef]
Kaul, G., & Seyhun, H. N. (1990). Relative price variability, real shocks, and the stock market. The Journal of Finance, 45(2), 479-496. [CrossRef]
Kayral, İ. E. (2020). BİST şehir endeksleri ile döviz kurları arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi: bir ARDL sınır testi uygulaması. IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (6), 272-284. [CrossRef]
Kilian, L. (2008). A comparison of the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the G7 countries. Journal of the European Economic Association, 6(1), 78-121. [CrossRef]
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009). The impact of oil price shocks on the US stock market. International Economic Review, 50(4), 1267-1287. [CrossRef]
Kwon, C. S., Shin, T. S., & Bacon, F. W. (1997). The effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market returns in developing markets. Multinational Business Review, 5(2), 63.
Liu, J. (2017). Impact of oil price changes on stock returns of UK oil and gas companies: A wavelet-based analysis. Available at SSRN 2997025. [CrossRef]
O’Neill, T. J., Penm, J., & Terrell, R. D. (2008). The role of higher oil prices: A case of major developed countries. In Research in Finance (Emerald Group Publishing Limited), 24, 287-299. [CrossRef]
Özbek, S. (2023). Döviz kuru yansıma etkisinin ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemleriyle tahmini: Türkiye örneği (2006-2022). Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 517-536. [CrossRef]
Özkan, N., & Ünlü, U. (2021). Bölgesel Covid-19 vaka sayıları, altın fiyatları, Euro ve BIST şehir endeksleri arasındaki İlişki: bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 240-253. [CrossRef]
Park, J., & Ratti, R. A. (2008). Oil price shocks and stock markets in the US and 13 European countries. Energy Economics, 30(5), 2587-2608. [CrossRef]
Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125. [CrossRef]
Qiang, W., Lin, A., Zhao, C., Liu, Z., Liu, M., & Wang, X. (2019). The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies. Natural Hazards, 95, 227-239. [CrossRef]
Raheem, I. D. (2022). Different strokes for different folks: The case of oil shocks and emerging equity markets. Energy Economics, 108, 105897. [CrossRef]
Ready, R. C. (2018). Oil prices and the stock market. Review of Finance, 22(1), 155-176. [CrossRef]
Sadorsky, P. (2003). The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility. Review of Financial Economics, 12(2), 191-205. [CrossRef]
Sakaki, H. (2019). Oil price shocks and the equity market: Evidence for the S&P 500 sectoral indices. Research in International Business and Finance, 49, 137-155. [CrossRef]
Sakur, R. (2023). İhracat değişiminin BIST endeks getirileri üzerine etkisi: BIST şehir endeksleri üzerine bir nedensellik analizi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(1), 40-47. [CrossRef]
Schwert, G. W. (1990). Stock returns and real activity: A century of evidence. The Journal of Finance, 45(4), 1237-1257. [CrossRef]
Sen, A., Dutta Choudhury, K., & Kumar Datta, T. (2023). An analysis of crude oil prices in the last decade (2011-2020): With deep learning approach. Plos One, 18(3), e0268996. [CrossRef]
Sentana, E., & Wadhwani, S. (1991). Semi-parametric estimation and the predictability of stock market returns: some lessons from Japan. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(3), 547-563. [CrossRef]
Umar, Z., Abrar, A., Zaremba, A., Teplova, T., & Vo, X. V. (2022). Network connectedness of environmental attention—Green and dirty assets. Finance Research Letters, 50, 103209. [CrossRef]
Yousef, E. M. A. (2022). The long-run relationship between disaggregated government expenditure and economic growth in jordan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 12(5), 1-9. [CrossRef]

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Bölgesel Ekonomi, Finansal Ekonomi

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Emre Bulut ^*
0000-0002-2884-1405
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

8 Ocak 2025

Yayımlanma Tarihi

8 Ocak 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

27 Şubat 2024

Kabul Tarihi

21 Ekim 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 39 Sayı: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA57HH56JE

APA

Bulut, E. (2025). Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance. Trends in Business and Economics, 39(1), 14-25. https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

AMA

1.Bulut E. Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance. Trend Bus Econ. 2025;39(1):14-25. doi:10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

Chicago

Bulut, Emre. 2025. “Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance”. Trends in Business and Economics 39 (1): 14-25. https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242.

EndNote

Bulut E (01 Ocak 2025) Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance. Trends in Business and Economics 39 1 14–25.

IEEE

[1]E. Bulut, “Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance”, Trend Bus Econ, c. 39, sy 1, ss. 14–25, Oca. 2025, doi: 10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242.

ISNAD

Bulut, Emre. “Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance”. Trends in Business and Economics 39/1 (01 Ocak 2025): 14-25. https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242.

JAMA

1.Bulut E. Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance. Trend Bus Econ. 2025;39:14–25.

MLA

Bulut, Emre. “Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance”. Trends in Business and Economics, c. 39, sy 1, Ocak 2025, ss. 14-25, doi:10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242.

Vancouver

1.Emre Bulut. Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance. Trend Bus Econ. 01 Ocak 2025;39(1):14-25. doi:10.16951/trendbusecon.1443242

Content of this journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

29928

Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance

Petrol Fiyatlarının BIST Şehir Endeksleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Şirket Performansında Bölgesel Farklılıklar

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Impact of Oil Prices on BIST City Indices: Regional Differences in Company Performance

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

DOI

IZ

Kaynak Göster