Vergi Cennetlerine Yönelik Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Ekonomik ve Kurumsal Belirleyicileri: Momentler Kantil Regresyon Yöntemiyle Farklı Bir Ekonomik Perspektif

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 40 Sayı: 1, 112 - 133, 01.01.2026

Atilla Ahmet Uğur , Berk Palandökenlier , Ayat Abdelrahim Suliman Esaa

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1694698

Öz

Vergi cennetlerinin uzun vadeli bir yatırım türü olan Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları (DYSY) çekme konusunda ne derece baskın rollere sahip olduklarına dair tam bir uzlaşı geçerli olmamaktadır. Özellikle bu ülkelerde geçerli olan kurumlar vergisi oranları, finansal gizlilik ve yönetişim kalitesinin seviyesi ile DYSY akımları arasında nasıl bir etkileşim olduğu konusunda oldukça sınırlı bir araştırma söz konusu olmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bu çalışma söz konusu ülkelere yatırım kararlarının altında yatan ekonomik ve yönetişim faktörlerinin neler olduğunu bütüncül olarak ortaya çıkarmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmada, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan 113 ülkeden 33 vergi cennetine ait 2009-2022 dönemi yıllık verileri ile sabit etkili Driscoll-Kraay ve Machado ve Santos Silva (2019)’nın sabit etkilere dayalı Momentler Yöntemi Kantil Regresyon (MMQR) analiz yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, vergi cennetlerine DYSY girişlerinin genel olarak hükümet etkinliği, hukukun üstünlüğü ve düzenleyici kalitenin kritik rollere sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre gerek düşük kantil seviyeleri gerekse daha yüksek kantil seviyelerinde hukukun üstünlüğündeki artışın, vergi cennetlerine yönelik DYSY girişlerini azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bunun aksine, hükümet etkinliği ve düzenleyici kalitedeki artışların ise yatırımcıların güvenini artırarak vergi cennetlerine DYSY girişlerini olumlu yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ulaşılan bu sonuçlar yatırımcıların sadece mali unsurlara değil bununla birlikte yönetişim göstergelerine de büyük önem verdiklerine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vergi Cennetleri , Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları , Panel Kantil Regresyon , Kurumsal Kalite

Economic and Institutional Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Tax Havens: A Different Economic Perspective Using Moments Quantile Regression

Öz

There is no consensus on the extent to which tax havens play a dominant role in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), a type of long-term investment. In particular, there is limited research on the interaction between the level of corporate tax rates, financial secrecy and governance quality in these countries and FDI flows. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the economic and governance factors underlying investment decisions in these countries in a holistic manner. In this framework, the study employs Driscoll-Kraay fixed effects and Machado and Santos Silva's (2019) Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) analysis methods based on fixed effects with annual data for the period 2009-2022 for 33 tax havens from 113 developed and developing countries. The results reveal that government effectiveness, rule of law and regulatory quality generally play critical roles in FDI inflows to tax havens. Accordingly, it is concluded that an increase in the rule of law, both at low quantile levels and at higher quantile levels, reduces FDI inflows to tax havens. In contrast, increases in government effectiveness and regulatory quality are found to positively affect FDI inflows to tax havens by increasing investor confidence. These results indicate that investors attach great importance not only to financial factors but also to governance indicators.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax Havens , Foreign Direct Investment , Panel Quantile Regression , Institutional Quality

Kaynakça

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