Tourism Revenues and Energy Prices: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4, 226 - 236, 15.10.2023

Arzu Alvan Bozdereli Hüseyin Ali Aker

Öz

The literature rarely studies tourism revenues and crude oil prices. There are few studies that focus on which countries, like China, Germany, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Mexico, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States, are the most popular destinations with tourists, many of which are located on the European continent. In light of this perspective, this study provides insight into the period between 2010 and 2019. The purpose of this study is therefore to examine how crude oil prices affect tourism revenue. For the analysis, a dynamic panel data technique is used. Two econometric models were used for the empirical part of this study. One of these mod- els includes tourism revenues as the dependent variable, whereas the other model includes only travel tourism revenues. According to the results, oil prices are significantly and positively associ- ated with tourism revenues. Oil prices have a less significant effect on travel tourism revenues than they do on total tourism revenues, which include international passenger travel, but they are more significant if they affect only travel tourism revenues. Using the findings for tourism policy and management, strategies can be developed to manage oil price impacts on tourism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brent crude oil prices, dynamic panel data analysis, tourism receipts, travel-only tourism receipts

Turizm Gelirleri ve Enerji Fiyatları: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Turizm gelirleri ve ham petrol fiyatları literatürde nadiren çalışılmaktadır. Çin, Almanya, İspanya, Fransa, Birleşik Krallık, İtalya, Meksika, Tayland, Türkiye ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri gibi çoğunun turistlerin en çok tercih ettiği ülkeler arasında yer aldığı ülkelerin dahil edildiği bir araştırmaya nadiren rastlanmaktadır. Avrupa kıtası, bu çalışmada ele alındığı şekliyle. Çalışma bu bulgu ile son bulmaktadır. Bu bakış açısıyla bu çalışma, 2010–2019 yılları arasındaki döneme ışık tutmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, çalışmanın temel amacı, ham petrol fiyatlarının turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkile- rini incelemektir. Analizlerde dinamik panel veri tekniği kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, petrol fiyatlarının turizm gelirleri üzerinde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulguların turizm politikası ve yönetimi için çıkarımları vardır ve petrol fiyatlarının turizm üzerindeki etkilerini yönetmek için stratejiler geliştirmek için kullanılabilir. Bu çalışmanın ampirik kısmı iki ekonomet- rik model kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu iki model bağımlı değişken olarak turizm gelirlerini içerirken, diğer model sadece seyahat turizmi gelirlerini içermektedir. Petrol fiyatlarının seyahat turizmi gelirleri üzerindeki etkisi, uluslararası yolcu seyahatlerini içeren toplam turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkisinden daha az, ancak sadece seyahat turizmi gelirlerini etkiliyorsa daha anlamlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

brent ham petrol fiyatları, seyahat turizmi gelirleri, turizm gelirleri, dinamik panel veri analizi

Kaynakça

• Akimov, A., Wijeweera, A., & Dollery, B. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Applied Financial Economics, 19(12), 999–1008. [CrossRef]
• Al-Mulali, U., Gholipour, H. F., & Al-hajj, E. (2020) The nonlinear effects of oil prices on tourism arrivals in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(8), 942–946. [CrossRef]
• Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297. [CrossRef]
• Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, J. (2002). Tourism as a long-run eco- nomic growth factor: The Spanish case. Applied Economics, 877–884.
• Becken, S. (2008). Developing indicators for managing tourism in the face of peak oil. Tourism Management, 29(4), 695–705. [CrossRef]
• Becken, S. (2011a). A critical review of tourism and oil. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 359–379. [CrossRef]
• Becken, S. (2011b). Oil, the global economy and tourism. Tourism Review, 66(3), 65–72. [CrossRef]
• Becken, S., & Lennox, J. (2012). Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism. Tourism Management, 33(1), 133–142. [CrossRef]
• Beşel, F. (2017). Oil prices affect current account deficit: Empirical evi- dence from Turkey. Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics, 3(2), 13–21.
• Chatziantoniou, I., Filis, G., Eeckels, B., & Apostolakis, A. (2013). Oil prices, tourism income and economic growth: A structural VAR approach for European Mediterranean countries. Tourism Management, 36, 331–341. [CrossRef]
• Deng, T., Ma, M., & Shao, S. (2014). Research Note: Has international tour- ism promoted economic growth in China? A panel threshold regres- sion approach. Tourism Economics, 20(4), 911–917. [CrossRef]
• Faisal, F., Rahman, S. U., Chander, R., Ali, A., Ramakrishnan, S., Ozatac, N., Ullah, M. N., & Tursoy, T., & Tursoy, T. (2021). Investigating the nexus between GDP, oil prices, FDI, and tourism for emerging economy: Empirical evidence from the novel fourier ARDL and hidden cointe- gration. Resources Policy, 74, 102368. [CrossRef]
• Gunduz, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey? Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499–504. [CrossRef]
• Hassani, H., Ghodsi, M., Huang, X., & Silva, E. S. (2021). Is there a causal relationship between oil prices and tourist arrivals? Journal of Applied Statistics, 48(1), 191–202. [CrossRef]
• Hesami, S., Rustamov, B., Rjoub, H., & Wong, W.-K. (2020). Implications of oil price fluctuations for tourism receipts: The case of oil exporting countries. Energies, 13(17), 4349. [CrossRef]
• Jiménez-Rodríguez, R., & Sánchez, M. (2005). Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: Empirical evidence for some OECD countries. Applied Economics, 37(2), 201–228. [CrossRef]
• Katircioglu, S. (2009). Testing the tourism-led growth hypothesis: The case of Malta. Acta Oeconomica, 59(3), 331–343. [CrossRef]
• Kisswani, K. M., Zaitouni, M., & Moufakkir, O. (2020). An examination of the asymmetric effect of oil prices on tourism receipts. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), 500–522. [CrossRef]
• Lennox, J. (2012). Impacts of high oil prices on tourism in New Zealand. Tourism Economics, 18(4), 781–800. [CrossRef]
• Logar, I., & Van Den Bergh, J. C. J. M. (2013). The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects. Energy, 54, 155–166. [CrossRef]
• Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M., & Masood Sheikh, S. (2018). Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and infla- tion on tourism demand in Pakistan: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 408–422. [CrossRef]
• Moshiri, S. (2015). Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks in oil‐exporting countries: The role of institutions. OPEC Energy Review, 39(2), 222–246. [CrossRef]
• Omri, A., Shahbaz, M., Chaibi, A., & Rault, C. (2015). A panel analysis of the effects of oil consumption, international tourism, environmental quality and political instability on economic growth in MENA region (pp. 2015–2613). Ipag Business School.
• Ritchie, J. R. B., & Hudson, S. (2009). Understanding and meeting the challenges of consumer/tourist experience research. International Journal of Tourism Research, 11(2), 111–126. [CrossRef]
• Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL frame- work. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, 281–314.
• Van Cranenburgh, S., Chorus, C. G., & van Wee, B. (2014). Vacation behaviour under high travel cost conditions–A stated preference of revealed preference approach. Tourism Management, 43, 105–118. [CrossRef]
• Vogel, H. L. (2021). Travel industry economics: A guide for financial analysis. Springer nature.
• World Trade Organization (2020). World Bank open data. Retrieved from data.worldbank.org