Restoran İşletmelerinde Kazanç Manipülasyon Riski ve Karlılık: Borsa İstanbul’da Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu araştırmanın iki temel amacı bulunmaktadır. Birinci amaç Borsa İstanbul Otel ve Lokantalar Sektöründe pay senetleri işlem gören restoranların kazanç manipülasyon risklerinin ölçülmesidir. İkinci temel amaç ise hesaplanan kazanç manipülasyon riskleri ile karlılık performansı arasındaki ilişkinin saptanmasıdır. Bu kapsamda öncelikle işletmelerin 2021-2024 yıllarına ait kazanç manipülasyonu riskleri Montier-C Skoru modeliyle saptanmıştır. Daha sonra işletmelerin 2021-2024 yıllarına ait aktif karlılığı, özsermaye karlılığı ve net kar marjı oranları hesaplanmış ve işletmelere ait Montier-C Skorlarına göre manipülasyon risk dereceleri ile karlılık oranları arasındaki ilişki hem korelasyon analiziyle hem de sıralandırmayla değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırma sonucunda restoranların C-Skorlarının yıl bazında farklılık gösterdiği ve ortalama değerler itibariyle orta düzeyde kazanç manipülasyon riski içinde oldukları belirlenmiştir. Yine, Kriter 6’nın (Toplam Varlık Büyümesi) en yüksek manipülasyon riskini taşıyan kriter olduğu saptanmıştır. Buna karşın Kriter 1’in (Net Kar ile İşletme Faaliyetlerinden Elde Edilen Nakit Akışı Farkı) en düşük riski gösterdiği saptanmıştır. Kazanç manipülasyon riski ile karlılık arasındaki ilişkinin değerlendirilmesi sonucunda kazanç manipülasyon riski ile sadece nat kar marjı arasında tutarlı bir pozitif ilişki olduğu ve kazanç manipülasyon riski yükseldikçe satış karlılığının da yükseldiği saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kazanç Manipülasyonu
• Montier C-Skoru
• Karlılık
• Restoran İşletmeleri
• Borsa İstanbul

Earnings Manipulation Risk and Profitability in Restaurant Companies: An Analysis in Borsa Istanbul

Öz

This study has two primary objectives. The first is to measure earnings manipulation risk among restaurant companies listed in the Hotels and Restaurants sector on Borsa Istanbul. The second is to examine the relationship between manipulation risk and profitability performance. Earnings manipulation risk for the 2021–2024 period was assessed using the Montier C-Score model. Return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and return on sales (ROS) were then calculated, and their association with manipulation risk was evaluated through correlation analysis and ranking. The results indicate that restaurant companies exhibited varying C-Scores across years, with an overall moderate level of earnings manipulation risk. Criterion 6 (Asset Growth) emerged as the most frequently triggered indicator of potential manipulation, while Criterion 1 (Difference between Net Income and Cash Flow from Operating Activities) reflected the lowest risk. Notably, a consistent positive relationship was found only between earnings manipulation risk and return on sales, suggesting that higher manipulation risk may be associated with increased return on sales.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Earnings Manipulation
• Montier C-Score
• Profitability
• Restaurant Companies
• Borsa İstanbul

Kaynakça

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