Nüfuz Mücadelesi: Rusya ve Türkiye'nin Sahel Politikaları (2019-2024)

Öz

Küresel ve bölgesel aktörler arasındaki rekabet ve iş birliğinin kapsamı her geçen gün çeşitlenmektedir. 21. yüzyılda Afrika kıtası, bu aktörler için öncelikli bir odak haline gelmiş olup, Rusya ve Türkiye son yıllarda Afrika politikalarında önemli ilerlemeler kaydeden iki ülke olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Rusya’nın Afrika’ya yönelik artan ilgisi özellikle 1990’ların sonlarında belirginleşmiştir. Benzer şekilde, Türkiye de 2000’li yılların başlarından itibaren kapsamlı bir Afrika stratejisi geliştirmiştir. Bu iki aktörün Afrika politikalarını tek bir çalışmada ayrıntılı ve derinlemesine analiz etmek mümkün olmayabilir. Bu nedenle, araştırmaların Afrika kıtası içinde belirli ülkelere veya bölgelere odaklanması önerilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Sahel bölgesi bu çalışma için uygun bir odak noktası olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bu araştırmanın amacı, 2019-2024 yılları arasında Türkiye ve Rusya’nın Sahel politikalarını karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmek ve bölgedeki rekabet ve iş birliği alanlarını ortaya koymaktır. Bu doğrultuda, çalışma her iki devletin Sahel ülkeleriyle olan askeri, ekonomik ve siyasi ilişkilerini ayrıntılı bir şekilde inceleyecektir. Bu çerçevede, çalışma; iki devletin resmi makamları tarafından paylaşılan bilgi, belge ve söylemlerin yanı sıra Dünya Bankası (WB) ve Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) gibi uluslararası finans kuruluşlarının istatistikleri ve raporları ile Stockholm Uluslararası Barış Araştırmaları Enstitüsü (SIPRI) ve Uluslararası Stratejik Araştırmalar Enstitüsü (IISS) gibi kuruluşların verilerinden yararlanacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sahel
• Rusya
• Türkiye
• Rekabet
• İşbirliği

Struggle for Influence: Russia and Türkiye’s Sahel Policies (2019–2024)

Öz

The landscape of competitive and cooperative interactions between global and regional actors are undergoing continuous diversification. In the 21st century, the African continent has emerged as a primary focus for these actors, with Russia and Türkiye being two countries that have made significant advancements in their African policies in recent years. Russia’s intensified interest in Africa became particularly evident during the late 1990s. Similarly, Türkiye has developed a comprehensive African strategy since the early 2000s. The aim of this research is to comparatively analyze the Sahel policies of Türkiye and Russia between 2019 and 2024, highlighting areas of competition and cooperation between the two actors in the region. The central research question guiding this study is: To what extent are Türkiye’s and Russia’s engagements in the Sahel region driven by rivalry, cooperation, or a broader struggle for influence? To address this question, the study examines the military, economic, and political engagements of both states with Sahelian countries, drawing upon a range of official sources, statistical data, and institutional reports. The findings suggest that while both nations seek to expand their presence, they employ notably different strategies, Türkiye favoring soft power and long-term partnerships, and Russia relying more on hard power and operational relationships. These different approaches yield critical information about the changing nature of great power competition in Africa’s most contested sub-region.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sahel
• Russia
• Türkiye
• Struggle for Influence
• Competition
• Cooperation

Kaynakça

1. AEI. (1998, July 1). A uni-multipolar world? American Enterprise Institute. https://www.aei.org/articles/a-uni-multipolar-world/
2. Anadolu Agency. (2019, April 11). Burkina Faso Cumhurbaşkanı Kabore Ankara'da. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/pg/foto-galeri/-burkina-faso-cumhurbaskani-kabore-ankarada
3. Antil, A., & Vircoulon, T. (2024, April 10). After the failure in Sahel, rethinking French policy in Africa. IFRI. https://www.ifri.org/en/memos/after-failure-sahel-rethinking-french-policy-africa
4. Askar, A. (2020, August 20). Türkiye's expansion in the Sahel, the Sahara and West Africa: Motivations and ramifications. WATHI. https://www.wathi.org/Türkiyes-expansion-in-the-sahel-the-sahara-and-west-africa-motivations-and-ramifications-epc/
5. Bambou, F. (2013). Partnership Paul Biya: Mission(s) accomplished. Afrique Magazine. https://afriquemagazine.com/partnership-paul-biya-missions-accomplished
6. Bhattacharya, S. (2023, August 8). The second Russia-Africa Summit: A continent at a crossroads. Observer Research Foundation. https://re-russia.net/review/749/
7. Cheick, D. (2022, May 25). China's foreign policy in the Sahel: Challenges and prospects. ORCA. https://orcasia.org/article/208/chinas-foreign-policy-in-the-sahel
8. Cooke, J., Toucas, B., & Heger, K. (2017, November 17). Understanding the G5 Sahel Joint Force: Fighting terror, building regional security? Center for Strategic & International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/understanding-g5-sahel-joint-force-fighting-terror-building-regional-security

9. Dedet, J. (2019). Russia Africa: Putin's continental strategy. The Africa Report. https://www.theafricareport.com/16335/russia-africa-putins-continental-strategy/
10. Donelli, F., & Cannon, B. J. (2025). Beyond national boundaries: Unpacking Türkiye's role in the Sahel and beyond through geopolitical imagination. Geopolitics, 1–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2025.2456024
11. Ecofin Agency. (2024). Russia expands economic influence in Sahel after security partnerships. https://www.ecofinagency.com/public-management/0411-46099-russia-expands-economic-influence-in-sahel-after-security-partnerships
12. Erforth, B., & Tull, D. M. (2022). The failure of French Sahel policy: An opportunity for European cooperation? SWP. https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/mta-spotlight-13-the-failure-of-french-sahel-policy
13. Erturk, N. A. (2024, November 26). UN secretary-general deplores Security Council being 'outdated, frequently paralysed'. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/un-secretary-general-deplores-security-council-being-outdated-frequently-paralysed/3405172
14. Fabricius, P. (2021). Making Türkiye great again. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/making-Türkiye-great-again
15. Geneva Academy. (2022, May 15). Today's armed conflicts. Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal (RULAC). https://www.rulac.org/news/todays-armed-conflicts
16. Grissom, A. R., Charap, S., Cheravitch, J., Hanson, R., Massicot, D., Mouton, C. A., & Reimer, J. R. (2022, January 31). Russia's growing presence in Africa: A geostrategic assessment. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4399.html
17. Holmedahl, S. (2024, September 27). Russia's gamble: Control or collapse in the Sahel. American Security Project. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/russias-gamble-control-or-collapse-in-the-sahel/
18. House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee. (2023). Guns for gold: The Wagner Network exposed. UK Parliament. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmfaff/167/report.html
19. Incekaya, G. (2022, December 29). Türkiye, Afrika kıtasıyla 2022'de de yoğun bir diplomasi yürüttü. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/turkiye-afrika-kitasiyla-2022de-de-yogun-bir-diplomasi-yuruttu/2774265
20. Jackson, W. D. (1978). Polarity in international systems: A conceptual note. International Interactions, 4(1), 87–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/030506278084344
21. Jones, D. (2021). After the war of words, are Paris and Ankara on the verge of a new era? RFI. https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/international-report/20210714-after-the-war-of-words-are-paris-and-ankara-on-the-verge-of-a-new-era
22. Kavak, G. (2021, October 17). Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın Afrika turu: Atılan adımlar ve beklentiler. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/cumhurbaskani-erdoganin-afrika-turu-atilan-adimlar-ve-beklentiler/2394519
23. Kennedy, P. (1987). The rise and fall of the great powers. Random House.
24. Lebovich, A. (2024, June 17). The Sahel's new geopolitics. Clingendael Institute. https://www.clingendael.org/publication/sahels-new-geopolitics
25. Lobell, S. E., Ripsman, N. M., & Taliaferro, J. W. (2009). Neoclassical realism, the state, and foreign policy. Cambridge University Press.
26. Melly, P., & Darracq, V. (2013). A new way to engage? French policy in Africa from Sarkozy to Hollande. Chatham House.
27. Nadzharov, A. M., & Entina, E. G. (2023, September). Franco-Russian great power rivalry in the Sahara-Sahel region. Russia in Global Affairs. https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/franco-russian-rivalry-in-sahara/
28. Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World politics. Alfred A. Knopf.
29. Parens, R., & Clarke, C. P. (2024, November 27). How might Trump 2.0 approach Sub-Saharan Africa policy? Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/11/how-might-trump-20-approach-sub-saharan-africa-policy/401298/
30. Paul, A., & Carlo, I. (2019, October 17). The Russia-Africa Summit: The next stage in the Kremlin's Africa charm offensive. European Policy Centre. https://www.epc.eu/en/publications/The-Russia-Africa-Summit-The-next-stage-in-the-Kremlins-Africa-charm~2b55c0
31. Pellerin, M. (2014). Geopolitical disruptions in the Sahel: An opportunity for global cooperation? In Transatlantic Security from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa (pp. 78-79). Istituto Affari Internazionali.
32. Ramani, S. (2024, September 30). Russia's arms exports to Sub-Saharan Africa: No longer the main actor. Italian Institute for International Political Studies. https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/russias-arms-exports-to-sub-saharan-africa-no-longer-the-main-actor-184986
33. Re: Russia. (2024). «Крыша» Сахеля: Россия расширяет влияние в Африке за счет насилия, жажды власти местных элит и просчетов Запада. https://re-russia.net/review/749/
34. Ripsman, N. M., Taliaferro, J. W., & Lobell, S. E. (2016). Neoclassical realist theory of international politics. Oxford Academic.
35. Rose, G. (1998). Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
36. SAM. (2024). Afrika açılımı ve ortaklık politikamız. Center for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Türkiye. https://www.sam.gov.tr/bilgi-notlari/afrika-acilimi-ve-ortaklik-politikamiz-0
37. Samkharadze, N. (2024). Great power dynamics in the Sahel region since 2022. South Caucasus and Black Sea Security Conference, 50-74.
38. Schweller, R. L. (1998). Deadly imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler's strategy of world conquest. Columbia University Press.
39. Tekir, O. (2023). Turkiye's Africa-Sub-Saharan policies and its competition with France. Afro Eurasian Studies, 11(2), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.33722/afes.1147536
40. Teslova, E. (2023, July 25). Russia says 49 of 54 African countries to take part in 2nd Russia-Africa Summit. Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-says-49-of-54-african-countries-to-take-part-in-2nd-russia-africa-summit/2954327
41. U.S. Department of State. (2002, November 7). Pan Sahel Initiative. USA.gov. https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/ct/rls/other/14987.htm
42. Vial, A.-S., & Bouvier, E. (2025, March 6). Türkiye, the new regional power in Africa (3/3). A military presence that is now greater than that of the former European powers. Les Clés du Moyen-Orient. https://www.lesclesdumoyenorient.com/Turkiye-the-new-regional-power-in-Africa-3-3-A-military-presence-that-is-now.html
43. Whitman, D. (2024, July 30). The West's loss of the Sahel: Not (only) Russia's doing. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/07/the-wests-loss-of-the-sahel-not-only-russias-doing/
44. Wolff, S. (2023, July 28). Russia-Africa summit: Putin offers unconvincing giveaways in a desperate bid to make up for killing the Ukraine grain deal. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/russia-africa-summit-putin-offers-unconvincing-giveaways-in-a-desperate-bid-to-make-up-for-killing-the-ukraine-grain-deal-210330
45. Zielcke, J. (2018). UN support plan for the Sahel. United Nations. https://uniss-sahel.org/unsp/
46. Zoubir, Y. H. (2022). Crisis in the Sahel: Causes, consequences, and the path forward. The Middle East Council on Global Affairs, 1-6.
47. Гвилия, Н. (2024). Россия – Африка: новая экономическая политика. Фонд Росконгресс. https://roscongress.org/materials/rossiya-afrika-novaya-ekonomicheskaya-politika/
48. Президент России. (2016). Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 30.11.2016 г. № 640. Kremlin.ru. http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41451/page/1
49. Президент России. (2023). Указ об утверждении Концепции внешней политики Российской Федерации. Kremlin.ru. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70811
50. Фонд Росконгресс. (2019). Итоги Саммита и Форума 2019. https://summitafrica.ru/archive/2019/summit-outcomes/