China’s Security Strategy in the Middle East during the Era of Xi Jinping

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 53, 41 - 70, 26.12.2022

Selim Öterbülbül

Öz

This study analyses changes in China’s security entanglement in the Middle East regarding discussions on China’s grand strategy. The main argument of this study emphasizes that the Sino-Middle Eastern security relationship is heading in a more assertive direction, yet still preserving China’s defensive-oriented foundation. The main determinant is the adjustment of China’s grand strategy under Xi Jinping. This study summarizes the discussion on China’s grand strategy and the historical background of Sino-Middle Eastern relations in order to demonstrate the continuity aspect of grand strategy. Then, the change in China’s security policy is explained through the adjustment of grand strategy in order to adapt to contemporary developments. The analysis focuses on China’s strategic cooperation agreements, arms sales to the Middle East countries, and military presence in the region.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Sino-Middle Eastern relations, Grand strategy, Xi Jinping, Security threat, Arms sales

Xi Jinping Döneminde Çin’in Ortadoğu’daki Güvenlik Stratejisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Çin büyük stratejisine ilişkin tartışmalar çerçevesinde, Çin’in Ortadoğu devletleriyle kurduğu güvenlik ilişkilerinin nasıl dönüştüğünü araştırmaktadır. Çalışmanın ana argümanı, Xi Jinping döneminde yeniden şekillenen Çin’in büyük stratejisinin, Çin-Ortadoğu ilişkilerindeki güvenlik stratejisini daha iddialı fakat hala savunmacı esaslara dayanarak belirlediğidir. Çalışmada ilk olarak Çin büyük stratejisine ilişkin tartışmalar incelenecektir. Ardından, Çin’in Ortadoğu’yla kurduğu güvenlik ilişkilerinin tarihsel seyri, büyük stratejinin süreklilik arayışıyla açıklanacaktır. Çin’in güvenlik stratejisindeki dönüşüm ise, büyük stratejinin çıkarları korumak için yeni şartlara uyum gereği üzerinden ele alınacaktır. Çin’in bölgedeki güvenlik stratejisi, işbirliğine çerçeve sunan ortaklık anlaşmaları, Çin’in Ortadoğu silah pazarındaki rolü ve bölgede artan askeri varlığı üzerinden analiz edilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çin-Ortadoğu İlişkileri, Büyük Strateji, Xi Jinping, Güvenlik tehdidi, Silah satışı

Kaynakça

• Al Tamimi, Naser (2018), “China’s Rise in the Gulf A Saudi Perspective”, Madawi Al Rasheed (der.), Salman’s Legacy The Dilemmas of a New Era in Saudi Arabia, (New York: Oxford University Press), s.251-271.
• Asat, Rayhan (2022), China’s Transnational Repression gets Saudi backing, Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/14/saudi-uyghur-refugees-china/ (20.10.2022).
• Balzacq, Thierry, Peter Dombrowski ve Simon Reich (eds.) (2019a), Comparative Grand Strategy A Framework And Cases, (New York: Oxford University Press).
• Balzacq, Thierry, Peter Dombrowski ve Simon Reich (2019b), “Is Grand Strategy a Research Program? A Review Essay”, Security Studies, 28(1), s.58-86.
• BBC (2001), «Giant vessel shuts the Bosphorus», http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1632156.stm (4.12.2020).
• Bloomberg (2022), «Xi Mentions of ‘Security’ Eclipse ‘Economy’ in Historic Shift», https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/xi-mentions-of-security-eclipse-economy-in-historic-shift?srnd=premium-asia (20.10.2022).
• Boni, Filippo (2020), Sino-Pakistani Relations: Politics, Military and Regional Dynamics, (New York: Routledge).
• Brands, Hal (2012), The Promise and Pitfalls of Grand Strategy, (US Army War College Press).
• Burgman Jr., Paul R. (2016), “Xi Jinping’s Asian Security Dream”, The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2016/07/xi-jinpings-asian-security-dream/ (20.08.2022).
• Buzan, Barry, (2010), “China in International Society: Is ‘Peaceful Rise’ Possible?”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3(1), s.5-36.
• Buzan, Barry (2014), “The Logic and Contradictions of ‘Peaceful Rise/Development’ as China’s Grand Strategy”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 7(4), s.381-420.
• Byman, Daniel ve Roger Cliff (1999), China’s Arms Sales Motivations and Implications, (Washington: RAND Corporation).
• Calabrese, John (1998), “China and the Persian Gulf: Energy and Security”, Middle East Journal, 52(3), s.351-366.
• Callahan, William A. (2008), “Chinese Visions of World Order: Post-Hegemonic or a New Hegemony?”, International Studies Review, 10(4), s.749-761.
• Chau, Wilson Chun Hei (2011), “Explaining China's Participation in Bilateral and Multilateral Military Exercises”, Security Challenges, 7(3), s.51-69.
• Chaziza, Mordechai (2019), “China’s Economic Diplomacy Approach in the Middle East Conflicts”, China Report, 55(1), s.24-39.
• Chen, Chien-Kai (2021), “China in the Middle East: an Analysis from a Theoretical Perspective of “Path Dependence”, East Asia, 38, s.105-121.
• China Daily (2016), «Joint statement between China and Iran on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership», https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2016xivisitmiddleeast/2016-01/23/content_23216249.htm (23.01.2022).
• Clinton, Hillary (2011), “America’s Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, (189), s.56-63.
• Davidson, Christopher (2010), The Persian Gulf and Pacific Asia: From Indifference to Interdependence, (New York:Columbia University Press).
• Dorsey, James M. (2019), China and the Middle East Venturing into the Maelstrom, (Cham:Palgrave).
• Earle, E.M. (1945), Makers of Modern Strategy, (New York: Princeton University Press).
• Feaver, Peter (2009), “What is grand strategy and why do we need it”, Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2009/04/08/what-is-grand-strategy-and-why-do-we-need-it/ (04.04.2022).
• Friedman, Thomas L. (2014), «Obama on the World», The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000003048414/obama-on-the-world.html (04.12.2021).
• Fulton, Jonathan (2019), China’s Changing Role in the Middle East, Atlantic Council.
• Galtung, Johan (1964), “Foreign Policy Opinion as a Function of Social Position”, Journal of Peace Research, 1(3-4), s.206-230.
• Gater-Smith, Philip (2018), “Complex interdependence in the China–Saudi–US triangle? Assessing shifts in the issue area linkages between energy trade and security ties”, Anoushiravan Ehteshami ve Niv Horesh (ed.), China’s Presence in the Middle East The Implications of the One Belt, One Road Initiative, (New York:Routledge), s.88-114.
• Goldstein Avery (2005), Rising to Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security, (New York: Stanford University Press).
• Gulf News (2018), «UAE-China Joint Statement on Strategic Partnership», (2018), https://gulfnews.com/uae/government/full-text-uae-china-joint-statement-on-strategic-partnership-1.2254614 (20.01.2022).
• Hart, B. H. Liddell (1954), Strategy, (Faber and Faber).
• Iddon, Paul (2022), “China emerges as an arms supplier of choice for many Middle East countries”, MiddleEastEye https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/china-emerges-major-exporter-weapons-middle-east-north-africa (20.06.2022).
• Jerdén, Björn (2014), “The Assertive China Narrative: Why It Is Wrong and How So Many Still Bought into It”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 7(1), s.47-88.
• Johnston, Alastair Iain (2013), “How new and assertive is China’s New Assertiveness?”, International Security, 37(4), s.7-48.
• Kamal, Nazir (1992), “China's Arms Export Policy and Responses to Multilateral Restraints”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 14(2), s.112-141.
• Kaulgud, Mihir Vikrant (2022), “The Strategic Dimensions of Chinese Arms Exports to the Middle East”. https://usanasfoundation.com/the-strategic-dimensions-of-chinese-arms-exports-to-the-middle-east (15.06.2022).
• Khalilzad, Zalmay, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David A. Shlapak ve Ashley J. Tellis (1999), The United States and Rising China, (Washington: RAND Corporation).
• Khetran, Mir Sherbaz (2016), “Economic Connectivity: Pakistan, China, West Asia and Central Asia”, Strategic Studies, 36(4), s.61-76.
• Kleine-Ahlbrandt, Stephanie ve Andrew Small (2008), “China's New Dictatorship Diplomacy”, Foreign Affairs, 87(1), s.38-56.
• Kuo, I-chieh, ve Huangi Weihao (2021), “Does title or content matter? Examining China’s partnerships with text classification”, Wei, Weixiao (der.), China’s Contemporary Image and Rhetoric Practice, (New York: Routledge), s.4-29.
• Lin, Bonny, Brian Hart, Matthew P.Funaiole ve Samantha Lu (2022), “China’s 20th Party Congress Report: Doubling Down in the Face of External Threats”, CSIS, https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-20th-party-congress-report-doubling-down-face-external-threats (20.10.2022).
• Lissner, Rebecca Friedman (2018), “What is Grand Strategy? Sweeping a conceptual Minefield”, Texas National Security Review, 2(1), s.53-73.
• Lobell, Steven E. (2003), The Challenge of Hegemony Grand Strategy, Trade, and Domestic Politics, (Michigan: University of Michigan Press).
• Luttwak, Edward N. (1984), The Grand Strategy of the Soviet Union, (New York: St. Martin’s Press).
• Luttwak, Edward N. (2012), The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy, (New York: Harvard University Press).
• Martel, William C. (2015), Grand Strategy in Theory and Practice The Need for an Effective American Foreign Policy, (New York: Cambridge University Press).
• Mearsheimer, John J. (2010), “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3, s.381-396.
• Mearsheimer, John J. (2014), “Can China Rise Peacefully”, The National Interest.
• Milevski, Lukas (2016), The Evolution of Modern Grand Strategic Thought, (New York: Oxford University Press).
• Miller, Benjamin (2007), States, Nations, Great Powers, (Cambridge University Press).
• Mozur, Paul (2018), “Inside China's Dystopian Dreams: A.I., Shame and Lots of cameras”, The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/business/china-surveillance-technology.html (20.05.2022).
• Murray, Williamson (2011), “Thought on Grand Strategy”, Murray, Williamson, Richard Hart Sinnreich, ve James Lacey (der.), The Shaping of Grand Strategy Policy, Diplomacy, and War, (New York: Cambridge University Press), s.1-33.
• Ng, Teddy (2014), “Xi calls for Asian people to uphold Asia’s security’ as he aims to sideline US”, South China Morning Post.
• Ningthoujam, Alvite (2021), “The Middle East: An Emerging Market for Chinese Arms Exports”, The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/the-middle-east-an-emerging-market-for-chinese-arms-exports/ (20.05.2022).
• Oki, Seima (2022), “China increasing arms exports to Middle East and Eastern Europe”, AsiaNews, https://asianews.network/china-increasing-arms-exports-to-middle-east-and-eastern-europe/ (20.08.2022).
• Olimat, Muhamad S. (2013), China and the Middle East: From Silk Road to Arab Spring, (New York: Routledge).
• Öterbülbül, Selim (2021), “Rebranding China’s Global Role: Xi Jinping at the World Economic Forum”, https://e-ir.info/2021/02/20/rebranding-chinas-global-role-xi-jinping-at-the-world-economic-forum (20.10.2022).
• Page, Jeremy (2019), “China builds first overseas military outpost”, The Wall Street Journal.
• Pan Honghui (2016), “Prospects for Sino-Turkish Relations Unlikely Partnership or Uncertain complex?”, China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 2(1), s.101-117.
• Panda, Ankit, (2017), “Qatar Parades New Chinese Short-Range Ballistic Missile System”, The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/qatar-parades-new-chinese-short-range-ballistic-missile-system (20.05.2022).
• Posen, Barry (1984), The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars, (New York: Cornell University Press).
• Ramani, Samuel (2017), “China’s Growing Security Relationship with Qatar”, The Diplomat.
• Reuters (2010), «China mounts air exercise with Turkey, US says», https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-turkey-usa-idUSTRE6975HC20101008 (20.08.2022).
• Reuters (2015), «Turkey confirms cancellation of $3.4 billion missile defence project awarded to China», https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-china-missile-idUSKCN0T61OV20151118 (20.08.2022).
• Rózsa, Erzsébet N. (2020), Deciphering China in the Middle East, (EU Institute for Security Studies).
• Segev, Hiddai ve Ofek Reimer (2019), “Not a Flood, but a Rising Current: Chinese Weapons Sales to the Middle East”, Assaf Orion and Galia Lavi (ed.), Israel-China Relations: Opportunities and Challenges. (TelAviv:Institute for National Security Studies), s.79-100.
• Shaif, Rawan ve Jack Watling (2018), “How the UAE’s Chinese-Made Drone is Changing the War in Yemen,” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/27/drone-wars-how-the-uaes-chinese-made-drone-is-changing-the-war-in-yemen/ (20.05.2022).
• Silove, Nina (2017), “Beyond the Buzzword: The Three Meanings of ‘Grand Strategy’”, Security Studies, 27(1), s.27-57.
• Singh, Michael (2016), “Chinese Policy in the Middle East in the Wake of the Arab Uprisings”, Horesh, Niv (der.), Toward Well-Oiled Relations? China’s Presence in the Middle East Following the Arab Spring, (New York: Routledge), s.162-179.
• Singleton, Craig (2021), “Beijing eyes new military bases across the Indo-Pacific”, Foreign Policy.
• Sinnreich, Richard Hart (2011), “Patterns of grand strategy”, Williamson Murray, Richard Hart Sinnreich, ve James Lacey (der.), The Shaping of Grand Strategy Policy, Diplomacy, and War, (New York: Cambridge University Press), s.254-270.
• Stanzel, Angela, Nadège Rolland, Jabin Jacob ve Melanie Hart (2017), Grand Designs: Does China have a ‘Grand Strategy’, (The European Council on Foreign Relations).
• Strüver, Georg (2017), “China’s Partnership Diplomacy: International Alignment Based on Interests or Ideology”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 10(1), s.31-65.
• Sun, Degang (2021), “China's partnership diplomacy in the Middle East”, Johnathan Fulton (der.), Routledge Handbook on China-Middle East Relations, (New York:Routledge), s.299-311.
• Sun, Degang (2015), China’s Soft Military presence in the Middle East, Middle East Institute.
• Swaine, Michael D. ve Ashley J. Tellis (2000), Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future, (Washington: RAND Corporation).
• The Guardian (2021), «Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes», https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/chinese-military-base-uae-construction-abandoned-us-intelligence-report (20.04.2022)
• Tseng, Sherry (2019), «Big Brother in China and the UAE: Surveillance tech’s threat to U.S. national security», Penn Law. https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/9345-big-brother-in-china-and-the-uae-surveillance (20.04.2022).
• United Nations Peacekeeping 2021 Troop and Police contributions (2022). https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/troop-and-police-contributors (20 Nisan 2022).
• Vohra, Anchal (2022), “Xi Jinping has transformed China’s Middle East policy”, Foreign Policy.
• Wang, Jianwei (2016), “Xi Jinping’s ‘Major Country Diplomacy:’ A Paradigm Shift?”, Journal of Contemporary China, 28(115), s.15-30.
• «Wang Yi Attends the Second Middle East Security Forum», (2022), Çin Dışişleri Bakanlığı, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/wjbz_663308/activities_663312/202209/t20220923_10770221.html (28.09.2022).
• «Wang Yi China Will Uphold ‘Four Supports’for Arab States», (2014), Çin Dışişleri Bakanlığı,https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/201401/t20140106_678110 (15.02.2022).
• Wezeman Pieter D., Alexandra Kuimova ve Siemon T. Wezeman (2021), Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020, (Stockholm:SIPRI).
• Wezeman Pieter D., Alexandra Kuimova ve Siemon T. Wezeman (2022), Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2021, (Stockholm:SIPRI).
• White Paper on China’s Arab Policy Paper (2016), (Pekin: Information Office of the State Council The People’s Republic of China).
• White Paper on China’s National Defense in the New Era (2019), (Pekin: Information Office of the State Council The People’s Republic of China).
• Xinhua (2014a), «China dispatches escort fleet to Somali waters», http://english.cri.cn/12394/2014/12/02/191s854861.htm (20.04.2022).
• Xinhua (2014b), «Wang Yi’s Speech on China’s Diplomacy in 2014», http://english.www.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2014/12/26/content_281475029808332.htm (20.04.2022).
• Yu, Li (2015), “China's strategic partnership with Latin America: a fulcrum in China's rise”, International Affairs, 91 (5), s.1047-1068.
• Zambelis, Chris (2011), “Sino-Turkish Strategic Partnership: Implications of Anatolian Eagle 2010”, China Brief, 11(1).
• Zheng, Bijian (2005), “China’s “Peaceful Rise” to Great-Power Status”, Foreign Affairs, 84(5), s.18-24.