Investigation of the Connectedness Between Loans Provided to SMEs and Selected Variables in Turkey Using the TVP-VAR Model

Abstract

In both developed and developing countries, SMEs are the cornerstones of economic development and stability with the employment they provide, the value added they create and the export and import activities they realize. In Turkey, SMEs have an important place in terms of number of enterprises and employment. In-depth analysis of the contributions and dynamics of these enterprises to the economy is of great importance for developing more effective economic policies and improving the existing system. The aim of this study is to examine the spillovers between selected economic indicators and the amount of credit extended to SMEs and the total, bilateral, net spillovers and network connections between all variables in the model through static and dynamic processes. Based on the connectedness approach, the TVP-VAR model is used and static and dynamic results are reported. According to the results, it is determined that the amount of credit to SMEs is one of the variables that receives shocks in net total, while the amount of imports is the variable that gives the highest shock in the model. It is also concluded that variables other than loans to SMEs have significant spillovers among themselves.

Keywords

• SMEs Loans
• Connectedness Approach
• TVP-VAR
• Inflation

Türkiye’de KOBİ’lere Verilen Krediler ile Seçilmiş Değişkenler Arasındaki Bağlantılılığın TVP-VAR Modeli ile İncelenmesi

Öz

Hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde KOBİ'ler, sağladıkları istihdam, yarattıkları katma değer ve gerçekleştirdikleri ihracat ve ithalat faaliyetleri ile ekonomik kalkınmanın ve istikrarın temel taşlarını oluşturmaktadır. Türkiye'de de KOBİ'ler, işletme sayısı ve istihdam açısından önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Bu işletmelerin ekonomiye olan katkılarının ve dinamiklerinin derinlemesine incelenmesi, daha etkin ekonomik politikaların geliştirilmesi ve var olan sistemin iyileştirilmesi açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, seçilen ekonomik göstergeler ile KOBİ'lere verilen kredi tutarı arasındaki yayılımları ve aynı zamanda oluşturulan modeldeki tüm değişkenlerin birbiri arasındaki toplam, ikili, net yayılımları ve ağ bağlantılarını statik ve dinamik süreçler ile ortaya koymaktır. Bağlantılılık yaklaşımı temelinde TVP-VAR modeli kullanılmış olup statik ve dinamik sonuçlar raporlanmıştır. Bulunan sonuçlara göre KOBİ’lere verilen kredi tutarının net toplamda şok alan değişkenlerden biri olduğu, ithalat tutarının ise oluşturulan model içerisinde en fazla şok veren değişken olduğu tespit edilmiştir. KOBİ’lere verilen krediler dışındaki değişkenlerin kendi aralarında da önemli yayılımların gerçekleştiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• KOBİ Kredileri
• Bağlantılılık Yaklaşımı
• TVP-VAR
• Enflasyon

Kaynakça

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