Enerji Güvenliği Riskinde Finansal Gelişmenin, Temiz Enerji Yatırımlarının ve Doğal Kaynakların Rolü: Türkiye İçin Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'de enerji güvenliği riski ile finansal gelişme, temiz enerji yatırımları ve doğal kaynaklar arasındaki etkileşimi incelemektir. Çalışmada, 1990-2020 dönemine ait yıllık verilerden faydalanılarak uzun vade ilişkiyi incelemek için Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) modeli kullanılmıştır. Modelde, enerji güvenliği riski göstergesi bağımlı değişkendir. Finansal gelişme, temiz enerji yatırımları ve doğal kaynak göstergeleri ise temel açıklayıcı değişkenlerdir. Ekonomik büyüme ise kontrol değişkeni olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Analizde, enerji güvenliği riski bileşenleri, temel bileşen analiziyle endekse dönüştürülmüştür. Durağanlık sınaması için Phillips ve Perron ile Dickey-Fuller Genelleştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler uygulanmıştır. Ardından, uzun vade ilişki ARDL testi kullanılarak incelenmiş ve sonuçların doğrulanmasında Tamamen Değiştirilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler analizi yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, enerji güvenliği riski ile finansal gelişme, temiz enerji yatırımları ve doğal kaynak kullanımının eşbütünleşik olduğunu, yani uzun vadede birlikte hareket ettiğini göstermektedir. Dahası, finansal gelişme ve doğal kaynak kullanımının enerji güvenliği üzerinde risk artırıcı etkisi bulunurken, temiz enerji yatırımlarının riski azalttığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Güvenliği Riski
• Finansal Gelişme
• Temiz Enerji
• Doğal Kaynaklar
• ARDL Yaklaşımı.

The Role of Financial Development, Clean Energy Investments, and Natural Resources in Energy Security Risks: An Analysis for Türkiye

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the interaction between energy security risk and financial development, clean energy investments, and natural resources in Türkiye. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the long-term relationship using annual data from 1990 to 2020. In the model, the energy security risk indicator serves as the dependent variable, while financial development, clean energy investments, and natural resources indicators are the main explanatory variables. Economic growth is included as a control variable. In the analysis, the components of energy security risk were converted into indices using principal component analysis. Phillips and Perron and Dickey-Fuller Generalised Least Squares tests were applied to assess stationarity. The long-term relationship was then examined using the ARDL test, and the results were validated with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares analysis. The findings indicate that energy security risk is cointegrated with financial development, clean energy investments, and natural resource use, meaning they move together in the long term. Furthermore, while financial development and the use of natural resources have a risk-increasing effect on energy security, investments in clean energy have been found to reduce this risk.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy Security Risk
• Financial Development
• Clean Energy Investments
• Natural Resource
• ARDL Approach.

Kaynakça

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