Does Renewable Energy Reduce Carbon Emissions? Non-Linear Effects and Evidence from Panel Threshold Regression

Öz

This study investigates whether the impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions exhibits a nonlinear and threshold-dependent structure. According to empirical analysis results obtained using Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression method with data from 16 upper-middle-income countries covering the period 2000–2021, the carbon emission reduction effect of renewable energy remains weak without exceeding the critical threshold value in total final energy consumption. However, this effect strengthens significantly when the threshold value is exceeded. The study's findings suggest that the critical threshold value should be considered in the design of renewable energy policies and that the environmental gains from energy transition can reach significant levels after a certain point. These findings indicate that renewable energy policies should be designed through a phased and sector-specific framework.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Renewable Energy
• Carbon Emissions
• Hansen Panel Threshold Regression
• Nonlinear Relationship

Yenilenebilir Enerji Karbon Emisyonunu Azaltıyor Mu? Doğrusal Olmayan Etkiler ve Panel Eşik Regresyondan Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin karbon emisyonları üzerindeki etkisinin doğrusal olmayan ve eşiğe bağlı bir yapı sergileyip sergilemediğini araştırmaktadır. Hansen (1999) panel eşik regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak, 2000–2021 dönemini kapsayan 16 orta-üst gelir grubu ülkeye ait verilerle gerçekleştirilen ampirik analiz sonuçlarına göre yenilenebilir enerji payının toplam nihai enerji tüketimi içindeki kritik eşik değerini aşmadan karbon emisyonunu azaltıcı etkisi zayıf kalmaktadır. Eşik değeri aşıldığında ise bu etki belirgin biçimde güçlenmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları yenilenebilir enerji politikalarının tasarımında kritik eşik değerinin dikkate alınması gerektiğine ve enerji dönüşümünün çevresel kazanımlarının belirli bir seviyeden sonra önemli düzeylerde gerçekleşebileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar politika yapıcılar için enerji politikalarının kademelendirilmesi ve sektörel boyutlara da indirgenmesi gerektiğini somut olarak göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir Enerji
• Karbon Emisyonları
• Hansen Panel Eşik Regresyon
• Doğrusal Olmayan İlişki

Kaynakça

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