Türkiye’nin Fransa’ya Otomobil İhracatında Belirsizlik, Talep ve Döviz Kurları: Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Fransa, Türkiye’nin en önemli otomobil ihracat pazarlarından biridir; ancak bu ikili ticaret akımının belirleyicileri ayrı olarak incelenmemiştir. Bu çalışma, 2010Q1–2025Q3 döneminde Fransa’nın ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin, Fransa’daki binek otomobil talebinin ve ikili reel döviz kurunun Türkiye’nin Fransa’ya yönelik reel otomobil ihracatı üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerini Artırılmış Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (A-ARDL) yaklaşımıyla tahmin etmektedir. Bu yöntem, kısa ve uzun dönem katsayılarını birlikte tahmin etmekte ve geleneksel ARDL sınır testinin yanıltıcı olabileceği dejenere durumlarda geçerliliğini korumaktadır. Bulgular, istikrarlı bir uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Fransa’nın ekonomi politikası belirsizliği kısa dönemde negatif, uzun dönemde ise pozitif etki göstermektedir; bu durum, belirsizliğin Fransız talebini daha düşük maliyetli ithal araçlara yönlendirebileceği görüşüyle uyumludur. Fransa’daki otomobil kayıtları her iki dönemde de Türkiye’nin ihracatını artırırken, Türk lirasındaki uzun dönemli reel değerlenme ihracatı azaltmaktadır. Maliyet etkinliğini destekleyen ve model çeşitliliğini giriş seviyesi araçlara yönelten politikalar sektörün dayanıklılığını güçlendirebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Otomobil ihracatı
• Ekronomi politikası belirsizliği
• ikili reel döviz kuru
• A-ARDL

Uncertainty, Demand, and Exchange Rates in Türkiye's Automobile Exports to France: An Augmented ARDL Approach

Öz

France is one of Türkiye's most important automobile export markets, yet the determinants of this bilateral flow have not been studied separately. This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of France's economic policy uncertainty (EPU), French passenger car demand, and the bilateral real exchange rate (BRER) on Türkiye's real automobile exports to France over 2010Q1–2025Q3, using the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) approach, which jointly estimates short- and long-run coefficients and remains valid in degenerate cases where the conventional ARDL bounds test may mislead. A stable long-run relationship is confirmed. France's EPU has negative short-run effects but a positive long-run effect, consistent with uncertainty shifting French demand toward lower-cost imports. French car registrations raise Türkiye's exports in both horizons, while a long-run real appreciation of the lira reduces them. Policies supporting cost efficiency and model diversification toward entry-level vehicles can strengthen sector resilience.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Automobile exports
• Economic policy uncertainty
• Bilateral real exchange rate
• A-ARDL

Kaynakça

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