Okun Yasası Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerinde Nasıl İşliyor? Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Günümüzde birçok ülkede olduğu gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde de ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik konusu incelenmesi gereken önemli makroekonomik sorunlardan biridir. Bu çalışma, Okun Yasası kapsamında Kırılgan Beşli ülkeleri için büyüme ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkinin geçerliliğini test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışmada 1991-2019 dönemine ait işsizlik oranı ve büyüme oranı verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada uzun ve kısa dönemli sonuçların elde edilmesine ve her ülke için ayrı bulguların elde edilmesine olanak sağlayan Panel ARDL yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; Kırılgan Beşli ülke grubu için uzun dönem sonuçlarında büyüme ile işsizlik oranı arasında negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunurken, kısa dönem sonuçlarında pozitif anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Böylece çalışmanın genel bulguları değerlendirildiğinde Okun Yasası'nın varsayımlarının geçerli olduğu görüldü

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Okun Yasası
• Büyüme
• İşsizlik
• Panel ARDL

How Okun's Law Works in Fragile Five Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Today, as in many countries, Economic growth and unemployment are important macroeconomic issues in developing countries that should be examined. This study aims to test the validity of the negative effect of unemployment on growth for the Fragile Five countries under the Okun Law. For this purpose, unemployment rate and growth rate data for the period 1991-2019 were used in the study. Panel ARDL analysis method was used in the study, which allows long and short-term results to be obtained and separate findings for each country. According to the findings obtained; For the Fragile Five country group, there was a negative and statistically significant relationship between growth and unemployment rate in the long-term results, while a positive significant relationship was found in the short-term results. Thus, when the general findings of the study were evaluated, it was seen that the assumptions of the Okun Law were valid

Keywords

• Okun's Low
• Growth
• Unemployment

Kaynakça

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