Petrol Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru ve İhracat Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Araştırma: Rusya, Azerbaycan ve Endonezya Örneği

Öz

1970’lerdeki petrol krizinden sonra, petrol fiyatlarının ekonomi üzerine etkileri konusundaki tartışmalar hız kazandı. Petrol tükenebilir bir enerji kaynağı olmasının yanında ortaya çıkardığı çevre kirliliği birçok gelişmiş ülkeyi yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına yöneltmiştir. Ayrıca Petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalar ve dışa bağımlılığı arttırması ülke ekonomileri için istikrar bozucu etkiler doğurmaktadır. Bütün bunlar petrol rezervi bulunan ve ekonomileri büyük ölçüde petrol sanayiine bağlı olan ülkeler için tehdit unsuru oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada toplam petrol üretimi ve tüketimi Avrupa’dan daha fazla olan ve önceki çalışmalarda genellikle fazla odaklanmayan Rusya, Azerbaycan ve Endonezya’da petrol fiyatları, ihracat ve döviz kuru arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemiştir. Panel nedensellik testlerinin kullanıldığı çalışma 1996-2021 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz sonuçları ilgili ülkelerde petrol fiyatlarından ihracat ve döviz kuruna tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ihracattan döviz kuruna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Petrol fiyatları
• döviz kuru
• ihracat
• panel nedensellik testi

An Econometric Study on Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Exports: A Case of Russia, Azerbaijan and Indonesia

Abstract

After oil crisis in 1970s, discussions of the oil price effect on economies have accelerated. In addition to being a exhaustible energy source, the environmental pollution it generates has led many developed countries to shift towards renewable energy sources. Furthermore, fluctuations in oil prices and increased dependence on it have disruptive effects on national economies. All these factors pose a threat to countries with oil reserves and economies heavily reliant on the oil industry. This study, examines the relationship between oil prices, exports, and exchange rates in Russia, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia whose sum of oil consumption and production exceed that of Europe but have not been the primary focus of previous research. This study employs a panel causality test and encompasses data from 1996 to 2021. The findings indicate the existence of a unidirectional causality relationship from oil prices to both exports and exchange rates in the countries studied. Additionally, the research reveals a unidirectional relationship between exports and exchange rates.

Keywords

• Oil prices
• exchange rate
• export
• panel causality test

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