Dijital Finansın Bankacılık Sektörü İstikrarına Etkisi: Avrupa ve Orta Asya Ülkeleri (ECA) Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, bankacılık sektörü istikrarı üzerinde dijital finansın etkisini incelemektir. Çalışmada ECA kapsamındaki 44 ülkeye ait 2006-2020 arasındaki yıllık veriler panel veri analizi yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Araştırma modelindeki bağımlı değişken bankalara ilişkin Z skorudur. Dijital finans göstergesi olarak 100.000 kişi başına ATM sayısı, internet kullanan bireylerin toplam nüfusa oranı ve 100 kişi başına mobil telefon aboneliği kullanılmıştır. Analizin ilk aşamasında panel verilerin birim ve zaman etkisi incelenmiş ve ardından dirençli Hausman testi ile sabit etkiler ve tesadüfi etkiler modelleri arasından uygun model belirlenmiştir. İkinci aşamada tercih edilen modele ilişkin temel varsayımlar sınanmıştır. Son aşamada, varsayımlara ilişkin sapmalar nedeniyle dirençli tahminci yöntemi Driscoll-Kraay analizi yapılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre bankacılık sektörü istikrarı üzerinde ATM sayısı ile 100 kişi başına mobil telefon aboneliği değişkenlerinin negatif yönde etkisi tespit edilirken, internet kullanan bireylerin toplam nüfusa oranının pozitif yönde etkisi saptanmıştır. Sonuçlar, dijital finansın bankacılık riski ve finansal istikrar üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dijital finans
• Bankacılık istikrarı
• ECA ülkeleri
• Driscoll-Kraay testi

The Impact of Digital Finance on the Stability of the Banking Sector: The Case of European and Central Asian Countries (ECA)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of digital finance on the stability of the banking sector. The study analysed year data between 2006 and 2020 from 44 countries within the ECA using the panel data analysis method. The dependent variable in the research model is the banks' Z-score. The number of ATMs per 100,000 inhabitants, the ratio of internet users to the total population and the number of cell phone connections per 100 inhabitants were used as indicators for digital finance. In the first stage of the analysis, the unit and time effects of the panel data were examined and then the appropriate model among the models with fixed effects and random effects was determined using the robust Hausman test. In the second stage, the basic assumptions for the preferred model were tested. In the final stage, the robust estimation method Driscoll-Kraay analysis was performed based on deviations in the assumptions. According to the results of the analysis, the number of ATMs and cell phone subscriptions per 100 people had a negative impact on the stability of the banking sector, while the proportion of people using the Internet in the total population had a positive impact. The results show that digital financing has an impact on bank risk and financial stability.

Keywords

• Digital finance
• Banking stability
• ECA countries
• Driscoll-Kraay test

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