Determinants of Inflation in Türkiye (2006-2023): ARDL Approach

Year 2024, , 445 - 461, 15.10.2024

Fulya Gezer

https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1532625

Abstract

In this study, the factors affecting inflation in Türkiye during the period of 2006-2023 are examined using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. In this framework, the most recent data set is utilized to investigate the short and long-term effects of key macroeconomic indicators such as policy interest rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), effective exchange rate, oil prices, total imports, and industrial production index on inflation. The empirical findings of the study reveal that both in the long and short term, the most significant effect on inflation is found to be in the percentage change in effective exchange rate, followed by percentage changes in total imports and industrial production index. Additionally, it is determined that there is no effect of percentage changes in oil prices on inflation both in the short and long term. Consequently, it is expected that this study sheds light on making future predictions for inflation and taking necessary measures to combat high inflation within policymaking circles.

Keywords

Inflation, Cointegration, ARDL

Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri (2006-2023): ARDL Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2006-2023 döneminde enflasyonu etkileyen faktörler Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) yaklaşımı ile incelenmektedir. Bu çerçevede, en güncel veri seti kullanılarak Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) politika faizi, efektif döviz kuru, petrol fiyatları, toplam ithalat ve sanayi üretim endeksi gibi önemli makroekonomik göstergelerin enflasyon üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın ampirik bulgularında, hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde enflasyon üzerinde en önemli etkinin efektif döviz kurundaki yüzde değişim olduğu, ardından sırasıyla toplam ithalattaki yüzde değişim ve sanayi üretim endeksinin geldiği belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca petrol fiyatlarındaki yüzde değişimin hem kısa dönem hem de uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde bir etkisinin olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, çalışmanın enflasyonun ileriye yönelik tahminlerinin yapılması ve yüksek enflasyonla mücadele kapsamında gereken önlemlerin alınması konusunda politika yapıcılara ışık tutması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Enflasyon, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL

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