The Relationship between GDP, Labor, Capital, and Total Energy Consumption: The Case of European Union

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run relationship between GDP, energy consumption, capital stock, and labor in the European Union (EU) from 2003 to 2023 using panel data analysis. The research aims to contribute to the literature by focusing on bidirectional causality among these variables. After conducting cross-sectional dependence and unit root tests, the Westerlund panel cointegration test was applied, while the Driscoll-Kraay estimator—accounting for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity-was employed to estimate coefficients. The empirical findings indicate that capital stock accumulation exerts a statistically significant and strong positive impact on GDP. Conversely, energy consumption demonstrates a negative and significant effect on economic growth, suggesting that the EU's energy efficiency and green transformation policies may align with long-term economic performance. Changes in labor force, however, show no statistically significant effect. The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test reveals strong bidirectional relationships between GDP and both capital and energy consumption, confirming the dynamic interdependence among these variables.

Keywords

• Panel data analysis
• Driscoll-Kraay estimator
• Causality relationship

GSYH, Emek, Sermaye ve Toplam Enerji Tüketimi Arasındaki İlişki: Avrupa Birliği Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2003-2023 döneminde Avrupa Birliği’de (AB) gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH), enerji tüketimi, sermaye stoğu ve işgücü arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi panel veri analiziyle incelemektedir. Araştırma, söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisine odaklanarak literatüre katkı sağlamayı amaçlamaktadır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve birim kök testlerinin ardından, Westerlund panel eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış, uzun ve kısa dönem katsayı tahminleri için ise yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve heterojeniteyi dikkate alan Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, sermaye stokundaki artışın GSYH üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve güçlü bir pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna karşın, enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi negatif ve anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu sonuç, AB'nin enerji verimliliği ve yeşil dönüşüm politikalarının uzun vadede ekonomik performansla uyumlu olabileceğine işaret etmektedir. İşgücü miktarındaki değişimlerin ise anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi, GSYH ile hem sermaye hem de enerji tüketimi arasında çift yönlü güçlü ilişkiler olduğunu ortaya koyarak değişkenler arasındaki dinamik bağımlılığı teyit etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Panel veri analizi
• Driscoll-Kraay hahmincisi
• Nedensellik ilişkisi

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