Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Azaltımı: Türkiye Vakası

Yıl 2017, , 149 - 174, 01.06.2017

Gürkan Kumbaroğlu İlhan Or Mine Işık

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.513239

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Enerji Sistemi’nin üretim, iletim ve tüketim süreçleri teknolojiler bazında oldukça ayrıntılı olarak modellenmesi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Referans senaryosunun yanı sıra, çeşitli karbon vergisi senaryoları altında kalibre edilen model ile Türkiye’nin hem kısa, hem de uzun vadeli enerji-çevre planlama ve politikalarının oluşumuna destek sağlayabilecek sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Referans senaryo sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye sera gazı salım değeri baz yılında yaklaşık 400 Mton CO2 iken, bu değerin 2032 yılı itibariyle 955 Mton CO2, 2052 yılı itibariyle de 1540 Mton CO2 değerine erişmesi öngörülmektedir. Öte yandan, 10$, 20$ ve 30$’lık emisyon vergisi ile 2012-2052 periyodu içerisinde toplamda sırası ile, %22.47, %24.04 ve %27.4’lük emisyon azaltımı potansiyeli öngörülmektedir. İlaveten, bu çalışma sektörlerin emisyon vergisi karşısında nasıl davrandıkları detaylı olarak açıklanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji modellemesi, sera gazı salım azaltımı, enerji-ekonomi-çevre ilişkileri

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Carbon Tax: The Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, generation, transmission, and consumption stages are modeled with an in-depth technological detail. In addition to the reference scenario, the model is calibrated under carbon tax scenarios to obtain results that can provide insights for long and short term energy and environment planning and policy generation. According to the reference scenario results, Turkey’s greenhouse gas emission values are predicted to reach 1540 Mton CO2 by the year 2052 from its current value of 400Mton CO2. Also, potential emission reductions are projected as 22.47%, 24.04% and 27.4% under $10, $20 and $30 emission tax scenarios respectively. Additionally, this study reveals how the sector responds to emission taxes in a comprehensive way. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy modeling, greenhouse gas emission reductions, energy-economy-environment relationship

Kaynakça

• Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. ve Govinda R. Timilsina. “A review of energy system models”, International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Cilt 4, No.4, 2010, s.494-518.
• Bretona, Michèle et.al. “A Differential Game of Joint Implementation of Environmental Projects” EJOR, Cilt 41, 2005, s.1737-1749.
• Böhringer, Christoph ve Thomas F. Rutherford. “Combining bottom-up and top-down”, Energy Economics Cilt 30, No.2, 2008, s.574-596.
• Buehring, William A. et.al. ENPEP: An Integrated Approach for Modelling National Energy Systems, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, 1991.
• Capros, Pantelis et.al. “Short and medium term modeling and problems of models linkage”, Energy, Cilt 15, 1990, s.301-324.
• “Climate Change Indicators in the United States”, EPA, 2014, https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/global-ghg-emissions.html, (Erişim Tarihi 17 Mart 2016).
• Conte, Marc N. ve Matthew J. Kotchen. “Explaining The Price of Voluntary Carbon Offsets”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cilt.15294, 2009.
• Cruz, Luis M.G. “Energy-Environment-Economy Interactions: An Input-Output Approach Applied to the Portuguese Case”, Environment and Development: Globalisation & the Challenges for Local & International Governance, Sousse, Tunisia, 2002.
• Çiçek, Hüseyin G. ve Serdar Çiçek. “Karbon Vergisi İle Karbon Ticareti İzinlerinin Karşılaştırılması”, İ.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 47, 2012, s.95-119.
• Davies, Evan G.R. ve Slobodan P. Simonovic, “Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system”, Advances in Water Resources, Cilt 34, No.6, 2011, s. 684-700.
• Dowlatabadi, Hadi. “Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change”, Energy Economics, Cilt 20, No.5, 1998, s.473-493.
• Fisher-Vanden, Karen et.al. The second generation model of energy use, the economy, and greenhouse gas emissions, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1993.
• Goggins, Nygil. Hybrid Energy-Economy Model For Analysis Of Climate Policy, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Burnaby, Asia Royal Roads University, 2005.
• Grubb, Michael et.al. “The cost of limiting fossil-fuel CO2 emissions: a survey and analysis”, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, Cilt 18, 1993, s.397–478.
• Herbst, Andrea et.al. “Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling”, Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, Cilt 148, No.2, 2012, s.111–135.
• Hainoun, Ali et.al. “Analysis Of The Syrian Long-Term Energy And Electricity Demand Projection Using The End-Use Methodology”, Energy Policy, Cilt 34, No.14, 2006, s.1958-1970.
• Hourcade, Jean C. et.al. “Estimating the costs of mitigating greenhouse gases”, Economic and social dimensions of climate change, 1996, s.263-296.
• Hourcade, Jean C. vd. “Hybrid Modeling, New Answers to Old Challenges”, Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal, Cilt 2, 2006, s.1-12.
• Howells, Mark I. et.al. “OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System An introduction to its ethos, structure and development”, Energy Policy, Cilt 39, 2011, s.5850–5870.
• Jaccard, Mark ve Nic Rivers. “Useful models for simulating policies to inducetechnological change”, Energy Policy, Cilt 34, No.15, 2005, s.2028-2047.
• Jia, Lui et.al. “Scenario Analysis Of China's Future Energy Demand Based On TIMES Model System”, Energy Procedia, Cilt 5, 2011, s. 1803-1808.
• Karakaya, Etem. Küresel Isınma ve Kyoto Protokolü İklim Değişikliğinin Bilimsel, Ekonomik ve Politik Analizi, İstanbul, Bağlam Yayıncılık, 2008.
• Kemfert, Claudia. “Climate Coalitions and International Trade: Assessment of Cooperation Incentives by Issue Linkage”, Energy Policy, Cilt 32, 2004, s.455–465.
• Kumbaroglu, Gurkan S. “A model for long-term global air quality and development of efficient control strategies in Turkey”, European Journal of Operations Research, Cilt 102, 1997, s. 380- 392.
• Kumbaroglu, Gurkan S. “Environmental taxation within a bottom-up framework of energy-economy interactions: The model ENVEES, Proceedings of the Methodical Workshop on Approaches in the Integration of Energy and Economy Models for the Evaluation of Future Strategies”, University of Stuttgart Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, 2002, s.93-103.
• Kumbaroglu, Gurkan S. ve Reinhard Madlener. “Energy and Climate Policy Analysis with the Hybrid Bottom-Up Computable General Equilibrium Model SCREEN: The Case of the Swiss CO2 Act", Annals of Operations Research, Cilt 121, No.1, 2003, s. 181-203.
• Loulou, Richard et.al. “Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models”, 2004, http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/mrkldoc-i_stdmarkal.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi 20 Haziran 2016),
• Loulou, Richard et.al. “Documentation for the TIMES model, Part II. Energy technology systems analysis programme” (ETSAP), 2005, http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/docs/timesdoc-intro.pdf (Erişim Tarihi 20 Haziran 2016).
• Löschel, Andreas. “Technological change in economic models of environmental policy: a survey”, Ecological Economics, Cilt 43, 2002, s.105-126.
• Messner, Sabine ve Leo Schrattenholzer.“MESSAGE-MACRO: linking an energy supply model with a macroeconomic module and solving it iteratively“, Energy, Cilt 25, No.3, 2000, s.267-282.
• Montgomery, W. David. “Markets in Licences and Efficient Pollution Control Programs”, Journal of Economic Theory, Cilt 5, 1972, s.395-418.
• Mundaca, Luis et.al. “Evaluating Energy Efficiency Policies with Energy-Economy Models”, Annual review of environment and resources, Cilt 35, No.1, 2010, s.305-344.
• Nordhaus, William D. ve Zili Yang. “A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate Change Strategies”, American Economic Review, Cilt 886, 1996, s.741-765.
• Pollin, Robert et.al. The Economic Benefits of Investing in Clean Energy: How the Economic Stimulus Program and New Legislation can Boost US Economic Growth and Employment. Published Studies, 2009.
• Proenca, Sara A. ve Miguel St. Aubyn. “Hybrid Top-down/Bottom-up model for energy policy analysis in a small open economy - the Portuguese case”, 2009, http://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v38y2013icp176-185.html, (Erişim Tarihi 20 Kasım 2016).
• Rafaj, Peter ve Sokrates Kypreos. “Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model”, Energy Policy, Cilt 35, 2007, s.828–843.
• Ramachandra, T.V. “RIEP: Regional integrated energy plan“, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Cilt 13, 2009, s.285-317. Richey, Cooper. “Methodology for tax rebate analysis”, 1998, http://enduse.lbl.gov/SharedData/taxmethod.rtf, (Erişim Tarihi 15 Kasım 2016).
• Scott, Michael J. et.al. “The impact of DOE building technology energy efficiency programs on US employment, income, and investment”, Energy Economics, Cilt 30, No.5, 2008, s.2283–2301.
• Seebregts, Ad J. et.al. “Energy/Environmental Modeling with the MARKAL Family of Models”, Energy and Environment, 2001, s.3-5.
• Sumner, Jenny et.al. “Carbon Taxes: A Review of Experience and Policy Design Considerations”, Colorado, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2009.
• Tol, Richard S. J. “On the Optima Control of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Application of Fund”, Environmental Modelling and Assessment, Cilt 2, 1997, s.151-163.
• TÜİK, 2013 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, 2013, http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=13482, (Erişim Tarihi 20 Kasım 2016).
• Vaillancourt, Kathleen et.al. “The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model”, Energy Policy, 2008, s.2296-2307.
• Weaver, Andrew J. et.al. “Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets”, Geophysical Research Letters, Cilt 34, 2007.
• Yang, Z., R. S. et.al. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) Model, Report to The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts, 1996.
• Zhang, Bin ve Liang Xu. “Multi-item Production Planning With Carbon Cap And Trade Mechanism”, International Journal of Production Economics, Cilt 144, 2013, s.118–127.