Karbon Vergisi ile Sera Gazı Emisyonlarının Azaltımı: Türkiye Vakası

Yıl 2017, Özel Sayı: Paris İklim Zirvesi ve Yansımaları, 149 - 174, 01.06.2017

Gürkan Kumbaroğlu İlhan Or Mine Işık

https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.513239

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Enerji Sistemi’nin üretim, iletim ve tüketim süreçleri teknolojiler bazında oldukça ayrıntılı olarak modellenmesi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Referans senaryosunun yanı sıra, çeşitli karbon vergisi senaryoları altında kalibre edilen model ile Türkiye’nin hem kısa, hem de uzun vadeli enerji-çevre planlama ve politikalarının oluşumuna destek sağlayabilecek sonuçlar elde edilmiştir. Referans senaryo sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye sera gazı salım değeri baz yılında yaklaşık 400 Mton CO2 iken, bu değerin 2032 yılı itibariyle 955 Mton CO2, 2052 yılı itibariyle de 1540 Mton CO2 değerine erişmesi öngörülmektedir. Öte yandan, 10$, 20$ ve 30$’lık emisyon vergisi ile 2012-2052 periyodu içerisinde toplamda sırası ile, %22.47, %24.04 ve %27.4’lük emisyon azaltımı potansiyeli öngörülmektedir. İlaveten, bu çalışma sektörlerin emisyon vergisi karşısında nasıl davrandıkları detaylı olarak açıklanmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji modellemesi, sera gazı salım azaltımı, enerji-ekonomi-çevre ilişkileri

Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Carbon Tax: The Case of Turkey

Öz

In this study, generation, transmission, and consumption stages are modeled with an in-depth technological detail. In addition to the reference scenario, the model is calibrated under carbon tax scenarios to obtain results that can provide insights for long and short term energy and environment planning and policy generation. According to the reference scenario results, Turkey’s greenhouse gas emission values are predicted to reach 1540 Mton CO2 by the year 2052 from its current value of 400Mton CO2. Also, potential emission reductions are projected as 22.47%, 24.04% and 27.4% under $10, $20 and $30 emission tax scenarios respectively. Additionally, this study reveals how the sector responds to emission taxes in a comprehensive way. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy modeling, greenhouse gas emission reductions, energy-economy-environment relationship

Kaynakça

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