The Offensive Realist Logic of Iran’s Nuclear Program: Power Maximization and the Pursuit of Regional Hegemony (1950-2025)

Öz

This study analyzes Iran’s nuclear program (1950–2025) through the lens of offensive realism, arguing that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are a rational expression of its pursuit of regional hegemony and power maximization. The central research question is how Iran's nuclear program, under the conditions of international anarchy, reflects the power maximization principles of offensive realism. The failure of liberal institutional mechanisms such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities is explained through security dilemmas arising from the anarchic nature of the international system. Employing a qualitative historical-analytical method, the study finds that Iran has adopted a nuclear hedging strategy in response to sanctions and military threats. Key findings demonstrate that Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment and obstruction of safeguards inspections exemplify offensive realism’s logic of “relative gains.” The study concludes that nonproliferation efforts will remain ineffective unless structural sources of insecurity are addressed.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Offensive Realism
• Iran Nuclear Program
• Regional Hegemony
• Power Maximization
• IAEA
• NPT
• JCPOA

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmanın hazırlanmasında katkılarıyla destek veren herkese teşekkür ederim. Özellikle destekleri ve teşvikleriyle bu sürecin tamamlanmasını mümkün kılan sevgili aileme şükranlarımı sunarım.

İran'ın Nükleer Programının Saldırgan Realizm Mantığı: Güç Maksimizasyonu ve Bölgesel Hegemonya Peşinde Koşma (1950–2025)

Öz

İran nükleer programı, Soğuk Savaş sonrası uluslararası sistemde önemli bir kriz alanıdır. Bu çalışma, İran nükleer anlaşmazlığında Avrupa Birliği’nin (AB) diplomatik girişimlerinin nasıl şekillendiğini ve bu sürecin Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) AB ilişkilerine etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. 1950’lerde ABD’nin desteğiyle başlayan İran’ın nükleer programı, 1979 İran Devrimi’yle Batı karşıtı bir politikaya evrilmiş ve 2003’te uranyum zenginleştirme faaliyetlerinin açığa çıkmasıyla küresel bir krize dönüşmüştür. AB, ABD’nin sert yaptırımlarına alternatif olarak diplomasiyi tercih etmiş ve 2003’ten itibaren İran ile müzakerelerde arabulucu rol üstlenmiştir. Tarihsel analiz yöntemiyle yürütülen bu araştırma, ikincil kaynaklara dayalı literatür taraması ve Uluslararası Atom Enerjisi Ajansı (UAEA) raporları ile Birleşmiş Milletler Güvenlik Konseyi (BMGK) kararlarını içermektedir. 1950’lerden 2015’teki Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı’na (KOEP) kadar olan dönemi kapsayan çalışma, AB’nin diplomatik çabalarının kökenlerini ve transatlantik ilişkilerdeki yansımalarını ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, AB’nin İran ile ABD arasındaki gerginlikleri yumuşatma girişimlerinin, ABD ile ilişkilerde hem iş birliğini güçlendirdiğini hem de stratejik ayrılıkları derinleştirdiğini göstermektedir. Günümüzde İran’ın nükleer programı, ABD-İran gerilimi ve bölgesel dengeler açısından kritik bir rol oynamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Saldırgan Realizm
• İran Nükleer Programı
• Bölgesel Hegemonya
• Güç Maksimizasyonu
• IAEA
• NPT
• JCPOA

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