Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 160 - 192, 27.12.2019
Öz
Bu makale, Türkiye ve Rusya’nın Suriye Krizi’nde rollerini stratejik boyutta incelemekte ve konuyla ilgili teorik tartışmalara ışık tutmaktadır. Zira her iki devletin de Astana, Soçi ve Ankara müzakerelerinde gösterdikleri çabalarla kalıcı barışın sağlanmasına yönelik sürece önemli etki yaptığı bilinmektedir. Bu ülkelerin inisiyatif alması, birçok sivilin hayatını kurtarmıştır. Bu da Suriye’nin Libya’ya dönüşmesini engellemiştir. Ayrıca Türkiye’nin uyguladığı açık kapı politikası da yeni insani dramlar yaşanmasını engellemiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Türkiye Rusya Suriye Krizi Askeri Müdahale Stratejik Beklenti
Kaynakça
- “Afrin Operation Proved YPG not Needed For Post-Daesh Stability, Experts Say SETA”, SETA, https://www.setav.org/en/afrin-operation-proved-ypg-not-needed-for-post-daesh-stability-experts-say/, (Date of Accession: 25.03.2019). “Civil War in Syria must be Averted”, Gulf News, https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/civil-war-in-syria-must-be-averted-1.937023, (Date of Accession: 24.02.2019). “Final Communique Action Group for Syria”, UN Diplomacy, http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Syria/FinalCommuniqueActionGroupforSyria.pdf, (Date of Accession: 09.03.2019). “Fırat Kalkanı Harekatı’yla 1,5 Milyon Sivil Güvende”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/firat-kalkani-harekatiyla-1-5-milyon-sivil-iki-yildir-guvende/1237687, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2019). “In Syria, Follow the Money to Find the Roots of the Revolt”, The Daily Beast, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/in-syria-follow-the-money-to-find-the-roots-of-the-revolt, (Date of Accession: 21.01.2019). “Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria”, International Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/now-or-never-negotiated-transition-syria. (Date of Accession: 10.02.2019). “On the Security Council Presidential Statement on Syria”, Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.mid.ru/en/maps/sy/-/asset_publisher/9fcjSOwMERcf/content/id/198418, (Date of Accession: 22.03.2019). “Putin Signs Deal to Keep Base in Syria for Half a Century.” The Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russia-syria-50-years-half-century-air-base-deal-putin-assad-regime-president-rebels-isis-a7863031.html. (Date of Accession: 25.02.2019). “Situation Syria Regional Refugee Response”, UNHCR, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2019). “Syria Crisis Situation Report - August 2018 Humanitarian Results-Syrian Arab Republic”, UNICEF, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/unicef-syria-crisis-situation-report-august-2018-humanitarian-results, (Date of Accession: 10.02.2019). “Syrian Civil War” Current Context, http://chssp.ucdavis.edu/current-context/syrian-war.pdf. (Date of Accession: 12.02.2019). “The Syrian Conflict: A Systems Conflict Analysis”, ARK Group, p. 23-26. “Turkey’s Approach to the Syrian Conflict”, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between turkey%E2%80%93syria.en.mfa, (Date of Accession: 19.03.2019). “World Wide Threat Assessment”, U.S. Intelligence Community, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/world-wide-threat-assessment (Date of Accession: 27.02.2019). AFRIDI, Manzoor Khan-Ali Jibran. “Russian Response to Syrian Crisis: A Neorealist Perspective.” Strategic Studies, 38(2), 2018. ALKAFF, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman-Nurulhuda Binte Yussof, “An Overview of the Syrian Conflict” Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 8(8), 2016, p. 8-11. ALLISON, Roy, “Russia and Syria: Explaining Alignment with A Regime in Crisis” International Affairs 89(4), 2013, p. 795-823. ALSAADI, Salam, “Russia’s Military Involvement in Syria: An Integrated Realist and Constructivist Approach” International Journal of Law, Humanities & Social Science, 1(5), 2017, p. 87-89, ARAS, Bülent-Rabia Karakaya Polat, “From Conflict to Cooperation: Desecuritization of Turkey’s Relations with Syria and Iran”, Security Dialogue, 39(5), 2008, p. 495-515. ARAS, Damla, “Turkish-Syrian Relations Go Downhill”, Middle East Quarterly 19(2), 2012, p. 41. ASSEBURG, Muriel et all, “Mission impossible? UN mediation in Libya, Syria and Yemen”, Social Science Open Access Repository, 2018, p. 10-60. BALANCHE, Fabrice, “Geography of the Syrian Revolt”, Outre Terre, 3, 2011, p. 437-458 BURGAT, Francois, “1. al-Assad’s Strategy: Divide to Survive. In No Spring for Syria”, Discovery, 2013, p. 17-32. BYMAN, Daniel, “Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East.” Survival, 56(1), 2014, p. 79-100. CANKARA, Pınar Özden, “The Sunni Identity of Ak Party Governments in Syria And Egypt Policies”, International Journal of Turcologia, 13(25), 2018, p. 61-62. CHARAP, Samuel, “Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention.” Survival, 55(1), UK 2013, p. 35-41. CORDESMAN, Anthony H.-Aram Nerguizian, “The Case For and Against a “Realist” Strategy in Syria”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/case-and-against-realist-strategy-syria, (Date of Accession: 07.02.2019). COSTIGAN, Thomas, “Syria Conflict and Regional Pipeline Geo-Strategy”, 2017, p. 2-5. D’ALEMA, Francesco, “The Evolution of Turkey’s Syria Policy”, Istituto Affari Internazionali, https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/evolution-turkeys-syria-policy, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2019). DAHER, Joseph, Révolution and Counter-Revolution in Syria, Origins and Developments, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des Sciences Sociales et Politiques, Lausanne 2018, (PhD), 2018, p. 345-362. DAOUDY, Marwa, “The Structure-Identity Nexus: Syria and Turkey’s Collapse (2011)”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs 29(3), 2016, p. 1074-1096. DEMIR, Imran, “Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy”, Springer 2017, p. 44-61. DINC, Cengiz-Mustafa Yetim, “Transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy toward the Middle East: From Non-Involvement to A Leading Role” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 2012, p. 67-84. EKŞI, Muharrem, “The Syria Crisis As a Proxy War and the Return of the Realist Great Power Politics” Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 2017, p. 106-129. Gaub, Florence-Nicu Popescu, “Russia and Syria-The Odd Couple” EU Institute for Security Studies, 4, 2013, https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Alert_Russia-Syria.pdf, (Date of Accession: 20.02.2019), p. 1-25. GERGES, Fawaz A., (ed.), The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2013, p. 1-36. HINNEBUSCH, Raymond-I. William Zartman, “UN Mediation in the Syrian Crisis: from Kofi Annan to Lakhdar Brahimi”, International Peace Institute, 2016, p. 6-18. KATZ, Mark N., “Russia and the Conflict in Syria: Four Myths” Middle East Policy, 20(2), 2013, p. 38-46. KIRIŞÇI, Kemal et all., “A Neighborhood Rediscovered Turkey’s Transatlantic Value in the Middle East”, Transatlantic Academy Paper Series, 2010, p. 1-30. KOZHANOV, Nikolay. Russian Policy across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods Chatham House, 2018, p. 4. LANDIS, Joshua, “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely to Survive to 2013”, Middle East Policy, 19(1), 2012, p. 72-84. LESCH, David W., Syria: The fall of the house of Assad, Yale University Press, 2013, p. 87-93. LYNCH, March, “The Political Science of Syria’s War.” POMEPS Briefings 22, 2013. http://www.pensamientocritico.org/primera-epoca/promid0114.pdf, (Date of Accession: 29.01.2019). MACAES, Bruno, “Russia’s New Energy Gamble”, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/russias-new-energy-gamble/, (Date of Acccession 03.03.2019). MAMMADOV, Rauf, “Russia in the Middle East: Energy Forever?” Russia in the 2018, https://jamestown.org/program/russia-middle-east-energy-forever/, (Date of Accession: 07.03.2019). MCDOWALL, Angus, “Syrian Observatory Says War has Killed more than Half A Million”, Andrew Roche, (ed.), Reuters, 12 (2018). OKYAY, Asli S., “Turkey’s Post-2011 Approach to Its Syrian Border and Its Implications for Domestic Politics”, International Affairs, 93(4), 2017, p. 829-846. ORHAN, Oytun, “Zeytin Dalı Harekatının Muhtemel Siyasi Sonuçları?” Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz-haber/zeytin-dali-harekatinin-muhtemel-siyasi-sonuclari/1097198, (Date of Accession: 15.03.2019). PARLAR DAL, Emel, “A Normative Approach to Contemporary Turkish Foreign Policy: The Cosmopolitanism–Communitarianism Divide.” International Journal 70(3), 2015, p. 421-433. PHILLIPS, Christopher, The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the new Middle East, Yale University Press, 2016, p. 313-327. SAMER, Abboud, Syria’s War Economy, Carnegie Endowment 9, 2014, http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/54131#comments, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2019). SOULEIMANOV, Emil Aslan-Valery Dzutsati, “Russia’s Syria War: A Strategic Trap?”, Middle East Policy, 25(2) 2018, p. 42-50. SZÉNÁSI, Endre, “Syria: Another Dirty Pipeline War”, Hungarian Ministry of Defence, Hungary 2017, p. 188. SZYMAŃSKI, Adam, “Turkish Policy Towards war in Syria”, TEKA of Political Science and International Relations, 12(1), Institute of Political Science University of Warsaw, Warsaw, 2017, p. 64-81. TARIQ, Ali, “What’s Really Going on in Syria? Tariq Ali”, You Tube, July 14, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZAdoLueRSY. TRENIN, Dmitriy, “Putin’s Plan for Syria”, Carnegie, https://carnegie.ru/2017/12/13/putin-s-plan-for-syria-pub-75001, (Date of Accession: 14.02.19). WIELAND, Carsten, “Syria: A Decade of Lost Chances: Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring”, Open Democracy, 29(8), 2012, p. 139-143. ZAKARIA, Fareed, “Obama Caves to Conventional Wisdom on Syria”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-obama-caves-to-conventional-wisdom-on-syria/2014/07/10/6a60ad74-085c-11e4-a0dd-f2b22a257353_story.html (Date of Accession: 17.02.2019). ŽIŽEK, Slavoj, “Syria is a Pseudo-Struggle”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/06/syria-pseudo-struggle-egypt (Date of Accession: 13.03.2019).
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 160 - 192, 27.12.2019
Öz
This paper examines the roles of Turkey and Russia as strategic actors in Syrian crisis and draw a light into theoretical debates on the issue. The two states with their efforts in Astana, Sochi and Ankara talks have made significant contribution to the lasting peace in the country. The initiatives of the two countries have saved many civilian lives. This prevented Syria from turning into the next Libya. In addition, Turkey’s Open-Door Policy has prevented new humanitarian crisis.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Turkey Russia Syrian Crisis Military Intervention Strategic Expectation
Kaynakça
- “Afrin Operation Proved YPG not Needed For Post-Daesh Stability, Experts Say SETA”, SETA, https://www.setav.org/en/afrin-operation-proved-ypg-not-needed-for-post-daesh-stability-experts-say/, (Date of Accession: 25.03.2019). “Civil War in Syria must be Averted”, Gulf News, https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/civil-war-in-syria-must-be-averted-1.937023, (Date of Accession: 24.02.2019). “Final Communique Action Group for Syria”, UN Diplomacy, http://www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/Syria/FinalCommuniqueActionGroupforSyria.pdf, (Date of Accession: 09.03.2019). “Fırat Kalkanı Harekatı’yla 1,5 Milyon Sivil Güvende”, Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/firat-kalkani-harekatiyla-1-5-milyon-sivil-iki-yildir-guvende/1237687, (Date of Accession: 03.02.2019). “In Syria, Follow the Money to Find the Roots of the Revolt”, The Daily Beast, 2013, https://www.thedailybeast.com/in-syria-follow-the-money-to-find-the-roots-of-the-revolt, (Date of Accession: 21.01.2019). “Now or Never: A Negotiated Transition for Syria”, International Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/now-or-never-negotiated-transition-syria. (Date of Accession: 10.02.2019). “On the Security Council Presidential Statement on Syria”, Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.mid.ru/en/maps/sy/-/asset_publisher/9fcjSOwMERcf/content/id/198418, (Date of Accession: 22.03.2019). “Putin Signs Deal to Keep Base in Syria for Half a Century.” The Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russia-syria-50-years-half-century-air-base-deal-putin-assad-regime-president-rebels-isis-a7863031.html. (Date of Accession: 25.02.2019). “Situation Syria Regional Refugee Response”, UNHCR, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113, (Date of Accession: 29.03.2019). “Syria Crisis Situation Report - August 2018 Humanitarian Results-Syrian Arab Republic”, UNICEF, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/unicef-syria-crisis-situation-report-august-2018-humanitarian-results, (Date of Accession: 10.02.2019). “Syrian Civil War” Current Context, http://chssp.ucdavis.edu/current-context/syrian-war.pdf. (Date of Accession: 12.02.2019). “The Syrian Conflict: A Systems Conflict Analysis”, ARK Group, p. 23-26. “Turkey’s Approach to the Syrian Conflict”, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between turkey%E2%80%93syria.en.mfa, (Date of Accession: 19.03.2019). “World Wide Threat Assessment”, U.S. Intelligence Community, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/world-wide-threat-assessment (Date of Accession: 27.02.2019). AFRIDI, Manzoor Khan-Ali Jibran. “Russian Response to Syrian Crisis: A Neorealist Perspective.” Strategic Studies, 38(2), 2018. ALKAFF, Syed Huzaifah Bin Othman-Nurulhuda Binte Yussof, “An Overview of the Syrian Conflict” Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses, 8(8), 2016, p. 8-11. ALLISON, Roy, “Russia and Syria: Explaining Alignment with A Regime in Crisis” International Affairs 89(4), 2013, p. 795-823. ALSAADI, Salam, “Russia’s Military Involvement in Syria: An Integrated Realist and Constructivist Approach” International Journal of Law, Humanities & Social Science, 1(5), 2017, p. 87-89, ARAS, Bülent-Rabia Karakaya Polat, “From Conflict to Cooperation: Desecuritization of Turkey’s Relations with Syria and Iran”, Security Dialogue, 39(5), 2008, p. 495-515. ARAS, Damla, “Turkish-Syrian Relations Go Downhill”, Middle East Quarterly 19(2), 2012, p. 41. ASSEBURG, Muriel et all, “Mission impossible? UN mediation in Libya, Syria and Yemen”, Social Science Open Access Repository, 2018, p. 10-60. BALANCHE, Fabrice, “Geography of the Syrian Revolt”, Outre Terre, 3, 2011, p. 437-458 BURGAT, Francois, “1. al-Assad’s Strategy: Divide to Survive. In No Spring for Syria”, Discovery, 2013, p. 17-32. BYMAN, Daniel, “Sectarianism Afflicts the New Middle East.” Survival, 56(1), 2014, p. 79-100. CANKARA, Pınar Özden, “The Sunni Identity of Ak Party Governments in Syria And Egypt Policies”, International Journal of Turcologia, 13(25), 2018, p. 61-62. CHARAP, Samuel, “Russia, Syria and the Doctrine of Intervention.” Survival, 55(1), UK 2013, p. 35-41. CORDESMAN, Anthony H.-Aram Nerguizian, “The Case For and Against a “Realist” Strategy in Syria”, Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://www.csis.org/analysis/case-and-against-realist-strategy-syria, (Date of Accession: 07.02.2019). COSTIGAN, Thomas, “Syria Conflict and Regional Pipeline Geo-Strategy”, 2017, p. 2-5. D’ALEMA, Francesco, “The Evolution of Turkey’s Syria Policy”, Istituto Affari Internazionali, https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/evolution-turkeys-syria-policy, (Date of Accession: 15.02.2019). DAHER, Joseph, Révolution and Counter-Revolution in Syria, Origins and Developments, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des Sciences Sociales et Politiques, Lausanne 2018, (PhD), 2018, p. 345-362. DAOUDY, Marwa, “The Structure-Identity Nexus: Syria and Turkey’s Collapse (2011)”, Cambridge Review of International Affairs 29(3), 2016, p. 1074-1096. DEMIR, Imran, “Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy”, Springer 2017, p. 44-61. DINC, Cengiz-Mustafa Yetim, “Transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy toward the Middle East: From Non-Involvement to A Leading Role” Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations, 11(1), 2012, p. 67-84. EKŞI, Muharrem, “The Syria Crisis As a Proxy War and the Return of the Realist Great Power Politics” Uluslararası Kriz ve Siyaset Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 2017, p. 106-129. Gaub, Florence-Nicu Popescu, “Russia and Syria-The Odd Couple” EU Institute for Security Studies, 4, 2013, https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Alert_Russia-Syria.pdf, (Date of Accession: 20.02.2019), p. 1-25. GERGES, Fawaz A., (ed.), The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2013, p. 1-36. HINNEBUSCH, Raymond-I. William Zartman, “UN Mediation in the Syrian Crisis: from Kofi Annan to Lakhdar Brahimi”, International Peace Institute, 2016, p. 6-18. KATZ, Mark N., “Russia and the Conflict in Syria: Four Myths” Middle East Policy, 20(2), 2013, p. 38-46. KIRIŞÇI, Kemal et all., “A Neighborhood Rediscovered Turkey’s Transatlantic Value in the Middle East”, Transatlantic Academy Paper Series, 2010, p. 1-30. KOZHANOV, Nikolay. Russian Policy across the Middle East: Motivations and Methods Chatham House, 2018, p. 4. LANDIS, Joshua, “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely to Survive to 2013”, Middle East Policy, 19(1), 2012, p. 72-84. LESCH, David W., Syria: The fall of the house of Assad, Yale University Press, 2013, p. 87-93. LYNCH, March, “The Political Science of Syria’s War.” POMEPS Briefings 22, 2013. http://www.pensamientocritico.org/primera-epoca/promid0114.pdf, (Date of Accession: 29.01.2019). MACAES, Bruno, “Russia’s New Energy Gamble”, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs, https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/russias-new-energy-gamble/, (Date of Acccession 03.03.2019). MAMMADOV, Rauf, “Russia in the Middle East: Energy Forever?” Russia in the 2018, https://jamestown.org/program/russia-middle-east-energy-forever/, (Date of Accession: 07.03.2019). MCDOWALL, Angus, “Syrian Observatory Says War has Killed more than Half A Million”, Andrew Roche, (ed.), Reuters, 12 (2018). OKYAY, Asli S., “Turkey’s Post-2011 Approach to Its Syrian Border and Its Implications for Domestic Politics”, International Affairs, 93(4), 2017, p. 829-846. ORHAN, Oytun, “Zeytin Dalı Harekatının Muhtemel Siyasi Sonuçları?” Anadolu Ajansı, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz-haber/zeytin-dali-harekatinin-muhtemel-siyasi-sonuclari/1097198, (Date of Accession: 15.03.2019). PARLAR DAL, Emel, “A Normative Approach to Contemporary Turkish Foreign Policy: The Cosmopolitanism–Communitarianism Divide.” International Journal 70(3), 2015, p. 421-433. PHILLIPS, Christopher, The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the new Middle East, Yale University Press, 2016, p. 313-327. SAMER, Abboud, Syria’s War Economy, Carnegie Endowment 9, 2014, http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/54131#comments, (Date of Accession: 17.01.2019). SOULEIMANOV, Emil Aslan-Valery Dzutsati, “Russia’s Syria War: A Strategic Trap?”, Middle East Policy, 25(2) 2018, p. 42-50. SZÉNÁSI, Endre, “Syria: Another Dirty Pipeline War”, Hungarian Ministry of Defence, Hungary 2017, p. 188. SZYMAŃSKI, Adam, “Turkish Policy Towards war in Syria”, TEKA of Political Science and International Relations, 12(1), Institute of Political Science University of Warsaw, Warsaw, 2017, p. 64-81. TARIQ, Ali, “What’s Really Going on in Syria? Tariq Ali”, You Tube, July 14, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZAdoLueRSY. TRENIN, Dmitriy, “Putin’s Plan for Syria”, Carnegie, https://carnegie.ru/2017/12/13/putin-s-plan-for-syria-pub-75001, (Date of Accession: 14.02.19). WIELAND, Carsten, “Syria: A Decade of Lost Chances: Repression and Revolution from Damascus Spring to Arab Spring”, Open Democracy, 29(8), 2012, p. 139-143. ZAKARIA, Fareed, “Obama Caves to Conventional Wisdom on Syria”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fareed-zakaria-obama-caves-to-conventional-wisdom-on-syria/2014/07/10/6a60ad74-085c-11e4-a0dd-f2b22a257353_story.html (Date of Accession: 17.02.2019). ŽIŽEK, Slavoj, “Syria is a Pseudo-Struggle”, The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/06/syria-pseudo-struggle-egypt (Date of Accession: 13.03.2019).
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Siyaset Bilimi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 27 Aralık 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2 |
