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Asymmetric Relations Between İnflation And İnflation Dynamics: The Case Of Turkey

Yıl 2023, , 145 - 158, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1173454

Öz

In this study, the two main dynamics of inflation, defined as demand-pull and cost-push inflation, are analyzed for the Turkish economy. Based on the fact that this basic dynamic in inflation may vary, the empirical structure of the study was created by taking into account the structural break in inflation. According to the empirical findings, it was concluded that the dynamics of inflation changed with the structural break in inflation. In terms of the Turkish economy, while demand-pull inflation was observed in the pre-structural break period when the domestic currency was appreciated. Cost-push inflation was more effective in the post-structural break period when the domestic currency was relatively depreciated due to the pass-through effect. Empirical findings show that after the structural break in inflation, a structural process was experienced in the Turkish economy in which money supply did not cause inflation. As it is known, the transfer of wealth from the lower income group to the higher income group accelerates during periods of high inflation. The insufficiency of effective demand, which decreases with the deepening of income inequality, also provides evidence for the fact that the money supply is not inflationary.

Kaynakça

  • Afsal, M. Ş., Doğan, İ., Emre, Ö. R. Ü. N., & Aydın, B. (2018). Enflasyonun Stokastik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Nardl Yaklaşımı. Journal of Life Economics, 5(4), 57-74.
  • Alev, N. (2019). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Ardl Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 DÖNEMİ) / Determinants of Inflation in Turkey: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 Period) . Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi , 3 (1) , 1-18 . DOI: 10.29216/ueip.471966
  • Alper, C. E., & Ucer, M. (1998). Some observations on Turkish inflation: A random walk down the past decade. Bogazici Journal, 12(1), 7-38.
  • Altissimo, F., Benigno, P., & Palenzuela, D. (2005). Long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union.
  • Altunöz, U. (2014). Balassa samuelson hipotezi: türkiye ekonomisi için sınır testi yaklaşımı. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of political Economy, 72(6), 584-596.
  • Borio, C., and A. Filardo (2007), Globalization and Inflation: New CrossCountry Evidence on the Global Determinants of Domestic Inflation, Bank for International Settlements BIS Working Papers No. 227.
  • Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679-690.
  • Carlson, J. A., & Parkin, M. (1975). Inflation expectations. Economica, 42(166), 123-138.
  • Demirgil, B. (2019). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, 7(1), 13-21.
  • Erkişi, K. (2019). Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation: The Case of Fragile Five Countries. Euroasia Journal of Social Sciences Humanities, 9, 49-59.
  • Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). A Monetary history of the US 1867-1960. Princeton University Press.
  • Goldfajn, I., & Werlang, S. R. D. C. (2000). The pass-through from depreciation to inflation: a panel study. Werlang, Sergio R., The Pass-Through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study (July 2000). Banco Central de Brasil Working Paper, (5).
  • Göçer, İ., Aydın, N., & Sümer, A. L. (2016). Türkiye'de Son Yıllarda Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi. Bankacılar, 27(98), 3-22.
  • Granger, C., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration. San Diego: University of California. Department of Economics Çalışma Raporu. ABD.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Crossspectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37 (3), 424-438.
  • Hartwig, J. (2006). Explaining the aggregate price level with Keynes's principle of effective demand. Review of Social Economy, 64(4), 469-492.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., & El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components. Applied Economics, 48(42), 4033-4041.
  • https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket TCMB Erişim Tarihi:01/08/2021
  • Jongwanich, J., & Park, D. (2009). Inflation in developing Asia. Journal of Asian economics, 20(5), 507-518.
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2022). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(3), 1543-1553.
  • Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2008). Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through: The Turkish experience. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 52-66.
  • Kazgan, G. (1997). İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi, Remzi Kitabevi, 7. Baskı, İstanbul.
  • Keynes, J. M. (2018). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. Springer.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (2001). Causes of inflation in Turkey: A literature survey with special reference to theories of inflation.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A., & Dibooglu, S. (2001). Inflation, output, and stabilization in a high inflation economy: Turkey, 1980-2000. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Office of Research Working Papers, (01-0112).
  • Koyuncu, A. F. T. (2014). Causality network between budget deficit, money supply and inflation: An application to Turkey. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(10).
  • Köse, N., & Ünal, E. (2021). The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey. Energy, 226, 120392.
  • Kyer, B. L., & Maggs, G. E. (1992). On the Keynes and Pigou effects in aggregate demand theory. Journal of Macroeconomics, 14(2), 371-375.
  • Leigh, D., & Rossi, M. (2002). Exchange rate pass-through in Turkey.
  • Lopcu, K., Burgaç, A., & Dülger, F. (2012). Balassa Samuelson hipotezi: Türkiye ekonomisi için bir sınama.
  • López, J., & Perrotini, I. (2006). On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand. QUARTERLY REVIEW-BANCA NAZIONALE DEL LAVORO, 238, 221.
  • O'Brien, D. P. (2000). Bodin's analysis of inflation. History of Political Economy, 32(2), 267-292.
  • Oktayer, A. (2010). Türkiye’de bütçe açığı, para arzı ve enflasyon ilişkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 431-447.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The review of economics and statistics, 145-154.
  • Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review, 5(3), 1-17.
  • Schwarzer, J. A. (2018). Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the" Cruel Dilemma". Journal of economic perspectives, 32(1), 195-210.
  • Stiglitz, J. (2018). The myth of secular stagnation. Project Syndicate, 28.
  • Tastan, H., & Sahin, S. (2020). Low-frequency relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(1), 91-120.
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Tursoy, T., & Mar'i, M. (2020). Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis.
  • Us, V. (2004). Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8-9), 1003-1013.
  • Yenisu, E. (2019). Türkiye’de enflasyonun makroekonomik belirleyicileri: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 43-58.
  • Yilanci, V., & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk sermaye piyasasında fiyat ve işlem hacmi ilişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2).
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.

Enflasyon İle Enflasyon Dinamikleri Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkiler: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2023, , 145 - 158, 31.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1173454

Öz

Bu çalışmada talep-çekmeli ve maliyet-itmeli enflasyon şeklinde tanımlanan enflasyonun temel iki dinamiği Türkiye ekonomisi için analiz edilmiştir. Enflasyondaki bu temel dinamiğin değişkenlik gösterebileceğinden hareketle enflasyondaki yapısal kırılma dikkate alınarak çalışmanın ampirik yapısı oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, enflasyondaki yapısal kırılmayla birlikte enflasyon dinamiklerinin değişkenlik gösterdiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisi açısından yerli paranın değerli olduğu yapısal kırılma öncesi dönemde talep-çekmeli enflasyon yaşanırken, yerli paranın nispi olarak değersizleştiği yapısal kırılma sonrası dönemde fiyat geçiş etkisiyle maliyet-itmeli enflasyonun daha etkili olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Ampirik bulgular enflasyondaki yapısal kırılmadan sonra Türkiye ekonomisinde para arzının enflasyona sebep olmadığı bir yapısal sürecin yaşandığını göstermektedir. Bilindiği üzere yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde alt gelir gurubundan yüksek gelir gurubuna servet aktarımı hızlanmaktadır. Gelir dağılımı adaletsizliğinin derinleşmesiyle azalan efektif talep yetersizliği aynı zamanda para arzının enflasyonist olmaması durumuna da kanıt oluşturmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Afsal, M. Ş., Doğan, İ., Emre, Ö. R. Ü. N., & Aydın, B. (2018). Enflasyonun Stokastik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Nardl Yaklaşımı. Journal of Life Economics, 5(4), 57-74.
  • Alev, N. (2019). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Ardl Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 DÖNEMİ) / Determinants of Inflation in Turkey: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 Period) . Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi , 3 (1) , 1-18 . DOI: 10.29216/ueip.471966
  • Alper, C. E., & Ucer, M. (1998). Some observations on Turkish inflation: A random walk down the past decade. Bogazici Journal, 12(1), 7-38.
  • Altissimo, F., Benigno, P., & Palenzuela, D. (2005). Long-run determinants of inflation differentials in a monetary union.
  • Altunöz, U. (2014). Balassa samuelson hipotezi: türkiye ekonomisi için sınır testi yaklaşımı. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Balassa, B. (1964). The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal. Journal of political Economy, 72(6), 584-596.
  • Borio, C., and A. Filardo (2007), Globalization and Inflation: New CrossCountry Evidence on the Global Determinants of Domestic Inflation, Bank for International Settlements BIS Working Papers No. 227.
  • Campa, J. M., & Goldberg, L. S. (2005). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), 679-690.
  • Carlson, J. A., & Parkin, M. (1975). Inflation expectations. Economica, 42(166), 123-138.
  • Demirgil, B. (2019). Türkiye’de Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Çalışma. Journal of International Management Educational and Economics Perspectives, 7(1), 13-21.
  • Erkişi, K. (2019). Budget Deficits, Money Supply and Inflation: The Case of Fragile Five Countries. Euroasia Journal of Social Sciences Humanities, 9, 49-59.
  • Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). A Monetary history of the US 1867-1960. Princeton University Press.
  • Goldfajn, I., & Werlang, S. R. D. C. (2000). The pass-through from depreciation to inflation: a panel study. Werlang, Sergio R., The Pass-Through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study (July 2000). Banco Central de Brasil Working Paper, (5).
  • Göçer, İ., Aydın, N., & Sümer, A. L. (2016). Türkiye'de Son Yıllarda Enflasyonun Belirleyicileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi Analizi. Bankacılar, 27(98), 3-22.
  • Granger, C., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration. San Diego: University of California. Department of Economics Çalışma Raporu. ABD.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Crossspectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37 (3), 424-438.
  • Hartwig, J. (2006). Explaining the aggregate price level with Keynes's principle of effective demand. Review of Social Economy, 64(4), 469-492.
  • Hatemi-j, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., & El-Khatib, Y. (2016). An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components. Applied Economics, 48(42), 4033-4041.
  • https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket TCMB Erişim Tarihi:01/08/2021
  • Jongwanich, J., & Park, D. (2009). Inflation in developing Asia. Journal of Asian economics, 20(5), 507-518.
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2022). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(3), 1543-1553.
  • Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2008). Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through: The Turkish experience. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44(6), 52-66.
  • Kazgan, G. (1997). İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi, Remzi Kitabevi, 7. Baskı, İstanbul.
  • Keynes, J. M. (2018). The general theory of employment, interest, and money. Springer.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (2001). Causes of inflation in Turkey: A literature survey with special reference to theories of inflation.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A., & Dibooglu, S. (2001). Inflation, output, and stabilization in a high inflation economy: Turkey, 1980-2000. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Commerce and Business Administration, Office of Research Working Papers, (01-0112).
  • Koyuncu, A. F. T. (2014). Causality network between budget deficit, money supply and inflation: An application to Turkey. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(10).
  • Köse, N., & Ünal, E. (2021). The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey. Energy, 226, 120392.
  • Kyer, B. L., & Maggs, G. E. (1992). On the Keynes and Pigou effects in aggregate demand theory. Journal of Macroeconomics, 14(2), 371-375.
  • Leigh, D., & Rossi, M. (2002). Exchange rate pass-through in Turkey.
  • Lopcu, K., Burgaç, A., & Dülger, F. (2012). Balassa Samuelson hipotezi: Türkiye ekonomisi için bir sınama.
  • López, J., & Perrotini, I. (2006). On floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand. QUARTERLY REVIEW-BANCA NAZIONALE DEL LAVORO, 238, 221.
  • O'Brien, D. P. (2000). Bodin's analysis of inflation. History of Political Economy, 32(2), 267-292.
  • Oktayer, A. (2010). Türkiye’de bütçe açığı, para arzı ve enflasyon ilişkisi. Maliye Dergisi, 158(1), 431-447.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical notes on trade problems. The review of economics and statistics, 145-154.
  • Sargent, T. J., & Wallace, N. (1981). Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal reserve bank of minneapolis quarterly review, 5(3), 1-17.
  • Schwarzer, J. A. (2018). Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the" Cruel Dilemma". Journal of economic perspectives, 32(1), 195-210.
  • Stiglitz, J. (2018). The myth of secular stagnation. Project Syndicate, 28.
  • Tastan, H., & Sahin, S. (2020). Low-frequency relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(1), 91-120.
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
  • Tursoy, T., & Mar'i, M. (2020). Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis.
  • Us, V. (2004). Inflation dynamics and monetary policy strategy: some prospects for the Turkish economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8-9), 1003-1013.
  • Yenisu, E. (2019). Türkiye’de enflasyonun makroekonomik belirleyicileri: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 43-58.
  • Yilanci, V., & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk sermaye piyasasında fiyat ve işlem hacmi ilişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2).
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of business & economic statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Koray Yıldırım 0000-0002-2524-1746

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Ocak 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Yıldırım, K. (2023). Enflasyon İle Enflasyon Dinamikleri Arasındaki Asimetrik İlişkiler: Türkiye Örneği. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(38), 145-158. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1173454


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