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TESTING WEAK AND SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY OF STOCK EXCHANGES IN EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA CAUSALITY AND CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Yıl 2008, Sayı: 1, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Öz

This study investigated that whether or not there is weak and semi-strong form efficiency of stock ex-changes in European Monetary Union Countries with panel data variables stock market price index, con-sumer price index, purchasing power of euro, unemployment. In order to test the weak form efficiency, we used panel unit root tests and also for the testing semi-strong form efficiency panel co-integration and causality analysis. The result from unit root analysis show that stock markets of European Monetary Un-ion countries is weak efficient. According to results of co-integration and causality analysis, some coun-tries aren’t semi-strong form efficient.

Kaynakça

  • ALPARSLAN, S. M. (1989), “Test of Weak Form Efficiency in Istanbul Stock Exchange”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Bilkent University, Ankara.
  • BALABAN, E. (1995), “Informationally Efficiency of the Istanbul Securities Exchange and Some Rational for Public Regulation”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department. Working Paper No: 9502, April.
  • CHOI, I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data” Journal of International Money and Finance”, April, 20 (2), 249–272.
  • COOPER, R. V. L. (1974), “Efficient Capital Markets and the Quantity The-ory of Money”, Journal of Finance, 29 (3), 887-908.
  • DARRAT, A. F., MUKHERJEE, T. K. (1986), “The Behavior of Stock Mar-ket in a Developing Economy”, Economics Letters, 22, 273-278.
  • ELY, D. P., ROBINSON, K. J. (1994), “Are Stocks a Hedge Against Infla-tion? International Evidence Using Co-integration Analysis”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Financial Industry Studies Working Paper, No: 94-3.
  • FAMA, E. F. (1970), “Efficient Capital Market: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance, May, 25 (2), 383-417.
  • FAMA, E. F. (1981), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money”, American Economic Review, 71 (4), 545-564.
  • FRENNBERG, P., HANSSON, B. (1993), “Random Walk Hypothesis on Swedish Stock Prices: 1919-1990”, Journal of Banking and Finance, February, 17, 175-191.
  • GONZÁLEZ, F., LAUNONEN, S. (2005), “Towards European Monetary In-tegration, the Evolution of Currency Risk Premium as a Measure for Monetary Con-vergence Prior to the Implementation of Currency Unions”, European Central Bank Working Paper, No: 569, December.
  • HOLTZ-EAKIN, D., NEWEY, W., ROSEN, H. S. (1988), “Estimating Vec-tor Autoregressions with Panel Data”, Econometrica, 56 (6), 1371-1395.
  • HOMA, K. E., JAFFEE, D. M. (1971), “The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices”, The Journal of Finance, December, XXVI (5), 1045-1065.
  • IM, K. S., PESARAN, M. H., SHIN, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53–74.
  • KAO, C. (1999), “Spurious Regression and Residual Based Tests for Cointe-gration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90 (1), 1–44.
  • KILIC, S. B. (2005), “Test of the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for the Istanbul Stock Exchange by Markov Chains Methodology”, Journal of Çuku-rova University Institute of Social Sciences, 14 (1), 333-342.
  • KWON, C. S., SHIN, T. S. (1999), “Co-integration and Causality between Macroeconomic Variables and Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal, 10(1), 71-81.
  • LEE, B-S. (1992), “Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation”, The Journal of Finance, September, XLVII (4), 1591-1603.
  • LEVIN, A., LIN, C. F., C. CHU. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: As-ymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24.
  • MADDALA, G. S., S. WU. (1999), “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–52.
  • MOOKERJEE, R. (1987), “Monetary Policy and the Informationally Effi-ciency of Stock Market: the Evidence from Many Countries”, Applied Economics, 19, 1521-1532.
  • MUBAREK, A., KEASEY, K. (2000), “Weak-Form Market Efficiency of an Emerging Market: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Market of Bangladesh”, OSLO ENBS Conference, May.
  • MURADOĞLU, G., ÖNKAL, D. (1992), “Türk Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Yarı-Güçlü Etkinlik”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 19 (2), 197-207.
  • PALMER, M. (1970), “Money Supply, Portfolio Adjustment and Stock Prices”, Financial Analysts Journal, July-August, 19-22.
  • PEDRONI, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heteroge-neous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statis-tics, 61 (4), 653-670.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2004), “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20, 3, 597–625.
  • POSHAKWALE, S. (1996), “Evidence on Weak Form Efficiency and Day of the Week Effect in the Indian Stock Market”, Finance India, September, X (3), 605-616.
  • RAPACH, D. E. (2001), “Macro Shocks and Real Stock Prices”, Journal of Economics and Business, 53 (1), 5-26.
  • ROZEFF, M. S. (1974), “Market Efficiency and the Lag in Effect of Mone-tary Policy”, Journal of Finance Economics, 1 (3), 245-302.
  • THORNTON, J. (1993), “Money, Output and Stock Prices in the UK: Evi-dence on some (none) Relationships”, Applied Financial Economics, 3, 335-338.
  • ZENGIN, H., KURT, S. (2004), “IMKB’nin Zayıf ve Yarı Güçlü Formda Etkinliğinin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi Öneri Dergisi, 6 (21), 145-152.

TESTING WEAK AND SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY OF STOCK EXCHANGES IN EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA CAUSALITY AND CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Yıl 2008, Sayı: 1, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Öz

This study investigated that whether or not there is weak and semi-strong form efficiency of stock ex-changes in European Monetary Union Countries with panel data variables stock market price index, con-sumer price index, purchasing power of euro, unemployment. In order to test the weak form efficiency, we used panel unit root tests and also for the testing semi-strong form efficiency panel co-integration and causality analysis. The result from unit root analysis show that stock markets of European Monetary Un-ion countries is weak efficient. According to results of co-integration and causality analysis, some coun-tries aren’t semi-strong form efficient.

Kaynakça

  • ALPARSLAN, S. M. (1989), “Test of Weak Form Efficiency in Istanbul Stock Exchange”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Bilkent University, Ankara.
  • BALABAN, E. (1995), “Informationally Efficiency of the Istanbul Securities Exchange and Some Rational for Public Regulation”, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department. Working Paper No: 9502, April.
  • CHOI, I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data” Journal of International Money and Finance”, April, 20 (2), 249–272.
  • COOPER, R. V. L. (1974), “Efficient Capital Markets and the Quantity The-ory of Money”, Journal of Finance, 29 (3), 887-908.
  • DARRAT, A. F., MUKHERJEE, T. K. (1986), “The Behavior of Stock Mar-ket in a Developing Economy”, Economics Letters, 22, 273-278.
  • ELY, D. P., ROBINSON, K. J. (1994), “Are Stocks a Hedge Against Infla-tion? International Evidence Using Co-integration Analysis”, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Financial Industry Studies Working Paper, No: 94-3.
  • FAMA, E. F. (1970), “Efficient Capital Market: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Work”, Journal of Finance, May, 25 (2), 383-417.
  • FAMA, E. F. (1981), “Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money”, American Economic Review, 71 (4), 545-564.
  • FRENNBERG, P., HANSSON, B. (1993), “Random Walk Hypothesis on Swedish Stock Prices: 1919-1990”, Journal of Banking and Finance, February, 17, 175-191.
  • GONZÁLEZ, F., LAUNONEN, S. (2005), “Towards European Monetary In-tegration, the Evolution of Currency Risk Premium as a Measure for Monetary Con-vergence Prior to the Implementation of Currency Unions”, European Central Bank Working Paper, No: 569, December.
  • HOLTZ-EAKIN, D., NEWEY, W., ROSEN, H. S. (1988), “Estimating Vec-tor Autoregressions with Panel Data”, Econometrica, 56 (6), 1371-1395.
  • HOMA, K. E., JAFFEE, D. M. (1971), “The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices”, The Journal of Finance, December, XXVI (5), 1045-1065.
  • IM, K. S., PESARAN, M. H., SHIN, Y. (2003), “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115 (1), 53–74.
  • KAO, C. (1999), “Spurious Regression and Residual Based Tests for Cointe-gration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90 (1), 1–44.
  • KILIC, S. B. (2005), “Test of the Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis for the Istanbul Stock Exchange by Markov Chains Methodology”, Journal of Çuku-rova University Institute of Social Sciences, 14 (1), 333-342.
  • KWON, C. S., SHIN, T. S. (1999), “Co-integration and Causality between Macroeconomic Variables and Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal, 10(1), 71-81.
  • LEE, B-S. (1992), “Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation”, The Journal of Finance, September, XLVII (4), 1591-1603.
  • LEVIN, A., LIN, C. F., C. CHU. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: As-ymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24.
  • MADDALA, G. S., S. WU. (1999), “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631–52.
  • MOOKERJEE, R. (1987), “Monetary Policy and the Informationally Effi-ciency of Stock Market: the Evidence from Many Countries”, Applied Economics, 19, 1521-1532.
  • MUBAREK, A., KEASEY, K. (2000), “Weak-Form Market Efficiency of an Emerging Market: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Market of Bangladesh”, OSLO ENBS Conference, May.
  • MURADOĞLU, G., ÖNKAL, D. (1992), “Türk Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Yarı-Güçlü Etkinlik”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 19 (2), 197-207.
  • PALMER, M. (1970), “Money Supply, Portfolio Adjustment and Stock Prices”, Financial Analysts Journal, July-August, 19-22.
  • PEDRONI, P. (1999), “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heteroge-neous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statis-tics, 61 (4), 653-670.
  • PEDRONİ, P. (2004), “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20, 3, 597–625.
  • POSHAKWALE, S. (1996), “Evidence on Weak Form Efficiency and Day of the Week Effect in the Indian Stock Market”, Finance India, September, X (3), 605-616.
  • RAPACH, D. E. (2001), “Macro Shocks and Real Stock Prices”, Journal of Economics and Business, 53 (1), 5-26.
  • ROZEFF, M. S. (1974), “Market Efficiency and the Lag in Effect of Mone-tary Policy”, Journal of Finance Economics, 1 (3), 245-302.
  • THORNTON, J. (1993), “Money, Output and Stock Prices in the UK: Evi-dence on some (none) Relationships”, Applied Financial Economics, 3, 335-338.
  • ZENGIN, H., KURT, S. (2004), “IMKB’nin Zayıf ve Yarı Güçlü Formda Etkinliğinin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Marmara Üniversitesi Öneri Dergisi, 6 (21), 145-152.
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Mustafa Torun Bu kişi benim

Serdar Kurt Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 14 Mayıs 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2008 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Torun, M., & Kurt, S. (2015). TESTING WEAK AND SEMI-STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY OF STOCK EXCHANGES IN EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA CAUSALITY AND CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(1). https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.65492


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