TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON, ENFLASYON BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE BÜYÜME

Yıl 2008, Sayı: 1, 0 - , 14.05.2015

Seyfettin Artan

Öz

Çalışmada, Türkiye’de uzun yıllardır devam eden yüksek ve kronik enflasyonun ve bu yüksek enflasyonun ortaya çıkardığı yüksek enflasyon belirsizliğinin büyümeyi ne yönde etkilediği 1987:1-2003:3 döne-mi zaman serisi verilerinden yararlanılarak test edilmiştir. Enflasyon belirsizliğinin elde edilmesinde GARCH analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliği Tür-kiye’de ele alınan dönem içerisinde büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak enflasyon belirsizli-ğinin büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi enflasyona kıyasla daha fazladır. Şöyle ki, enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik bir artış büyümeyi %0.56 oranında azaltmakta iken, enflasyon belirsizliğindeki %1’lik bir artış büyümeyi %3.95 oranında azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Kaynakça

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