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WORLD IN 2023: ESTIMATION BY POPULATION, CAPITAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC SIZE

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 15, 103 - 122, 20.06.2015

Muhammet Kaya İbrahim Bozkurt Rıfat Karakuş Sezer Öksüz

https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.88810

Öz

This study focuses on two aims. First aim of the study is to determine the relationship between change in population, poor population and capital markets development with change in GDP. The second aim is to forecast the position of countries in 2023 by using determined relations. To determine the relationships, data of 135 countries between 1980 and 2010 were analyzed. Analysis results revealed that population changes and capital market development have a statistically significant effect on GDP. In addition, there is a statistically significant relationship between population growth and poverty. In addition, it is stated that development of E7 countries will become higher than the development of G7 countries

Anahtar Kelimeler

GDP Poverty Population Capital Markets

Kaynakça

  • AKSOY, Ahmet, and Cihan TANRIÖVEN (2007), Sermaye Piyasası Yatırım Araçları ve Analizi, 3rd edition, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • ALÖVSAT, Müslümov (1998), “Stock Markets And Economic Growth: A Causality Test”, Boğaziçi University.
  • BAŞOĞLU, Ufuk, CEYLAN, Ali, and İlker PARASIZ (2009), Finans, Teori, Kurum, Uygulama, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • BEKAERT, Geert, and Campbell HARVEY (2001), “Economic Growth and Financial Liberalization”, Duke University, Durham, NC and Research Associate in the NBER’s Program on Asset Pricing.
  • BENCHIVENGA, Valerie R., and Bruce D. SMITH (1993), “Some Conse-quences of Credit Rationing in an Endogenous Growth Model”, Journal of Econom-ic Dynamics and Control, 17(1-2): 97-122.
  • BENCHIVENGA, Valerie R., SMITH, Bruce D., and Ross M. STARR (1996), “Equity Markets, Transaction Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration”, The World Bank Economic Review, 10 (2): 241-265.
  • BOYD, John H., and Bruce D. SMITH (1992), “Intermediation and the Equi-librium Allocation of Investment Capital: Implications for Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 30: 409-432.
  • BLOOM, David E., CANNING, David and Jaypee SEVILLA (2005), “Growth and the Demographic Transition”, M.I.T. National Bureau Of Economic Research, Working Paper, No: 8685.
  • CAPORALE, Guglielmo M., HOWELLS, Peter G.A. and Alaa M. SOLIMAN (2003), “Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Casual Linkage”, Journal Of Economic Development, 29 (1):33-50.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, Dimitris K., and Efthymios G. TSIONAS (2004), “Fi-nancial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Co-Integration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, 73: 55–74.
  • COSTELLO, Declan (2005), “Europe After The Enlargement”, The Econom-ic and Budgetary Implications of Ageing Populations Conference, Warsaw.
  • CURRAIS, Luis (2000), “From The Maltusian Regime to the Demographic Transition: Contemporary Research and Beyond”, Economica, 2(3): 75-101.
  • DARRAT, Ali (1999), “Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related? Another Look at the Evidence ,” International Economic Journal, 13(3): 19–35.
  • DARRAT, Ali, and Yousif K. AL-YOUSIF (1999), “On the Long-Run Rela-tionship Between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries”, Eastren Economic Journal, 25(3): 301-312.
  • DELIKTAŞ, Ertuğrul (2001), “Malthusgil Yaklaşımdan Modern Ekonomik Büyümeye”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 1 (1).
  • DEMETRIADES, Panicos O., and Khaled A. HUSSEIN (1996), “Does Fi-nancial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time Series Evidence from 16 Countries.” Journal of Development Economics, 51: 387–411.
  • DEVEREUX, Michael B., and Gregor W. SMITH (1994), “International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, 35(4): 535-550.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudi, and Stanley FISCHER (1998), Makroekonomi Birinci Basım, Çeviri. İstanbul: McGraw-Hill –Akademi Ortak Yayını.
  • GREENWOOD, Jeremy, and Boyan JOVANOVIC (1990), “Financial De-velopment, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 98: 1076-1107.
  • GREENWOOD, Jeremy, and Bruce D. SMITH (1997), “Financial Markets in Development, and The Development of Financial Markets”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 21: 145–181.
  • GOLDSMITH, Raymond W. (1969), Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N (2001), Basic Econometrics. Interpreters: Ümit Şenesen & Göktürk Senesen. 2nd edition. İstanbul: Literatür Publications.
  • http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/sp.pop.dpnd_ındicator_metadata_en_excel.xls from 07.11.2011
  • http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/povDuplic.html from 07.11.2011
  • http://www.oecd.org/document/0,3746,en_2649_201185_46462759_1_1_1_1,00.html from 20/11/2011.
  • http://www.sabah.com.tr/Yasam/2011/09/09/basbakan-yine-3-cocuk-dedi , 09/09/2011. from 06/11/2011.
  • JUNG, Woo S (1986), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: In-ternational Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 333-346.
  • KAYA, Muhammed V., and İbrahim BOZKURT (2011), “Unemployment, Per Capita Income (Poverty), Crime Rate And Green Card: The Case of Turkey Be-tween The Years 1993 – 2009”, Dumlupınar University Journal of Social Sciences, 30: 133-139.
  • KÖSE, Nezir (1998), “Granger Nedensellik Testinin Duyarlılığı Üzerine Bir Araştırma: Döviz Kuru-Enflasyon İlişkisinden Amprik Kanıtlar”, DİE Araştırma Sempozyumu Bildiri Özetleri, 152-159
  • KUNT, Aslı D., and Ross LEVINE (2004), Financial Structures and Eco-nomic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Markets and Development. Cambridge: First MIT Pres.
  • LEE, Ronald (2003), “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fun-damentals of Change”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (4): 167-190.
  • LEE, Ronald, and Timothy MILLER (1997), The Life Time Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants and Their Descendants: Project on the Economic Demography of Interage Income Reallocation. The New Americans.
  • LEVINE, Ross, and Sara ZERVOS (1996), “Stock Markets, Banks and Eco-nomic Long-Run Growth.” The World Bank, Policy Research Depertmant, Working Paper No 1690: 1–44.
  • LEVINE, Ross (1991), “Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy”, Journal of Finance, 46 (4): 1445-1465.
  • LUCAS, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22: 3–42.
  • LYONS, Susanna E., and Victor MURINDE (1994), “Cointegration And Granger-Causality Testing Of Hypotheses On Supply-Leading And Demand-Following Finance”, Economic Notes, 23(2): 308-316.
  • MCKIBBIN, Warwick J. (2006), “The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition.” The Australian National University Cama Working Paper, No:6
  • MUMCU, Onur, and Esen ÇAĞLAR (2006), Türkiye’nin Nüfusu Zenginlik Kaynağı Olabilir mi?. TEPAV Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Enstitüsü.
  • OBSTFELD, Maurice (1994), “Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth”, American Economic Review, 84 (5): 1310-1329.
  • ODEDOKUN, M.O. (1989), “Causalities Between Financial Aggregates and Economic Activities in Nigeria: The Results from Granger’s Test”, Savings and De-velopment, 23(1): 101-111.
  • PATRICK, Hugh T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14 (2): 174-189.
  • ROBINSON, Joan (1952), The Rate of Interest and Other Essays. London: Macmillan Press.
  • SARAÇ, M. & İ. BOZKURT (2011), “KOBİ’lerin halka açılma eğilimleri ve gelişen işletmeler piyasası’nın KOBİ’lerin halka açılma istekleri üzerine etkisi: Çankırı-Kastamonu-Sinop bölgesi örneği”, The Journal of Accounting and Finance, vol. 49, pp. 89-98.
  • SCHICH, Sebastian, and Florian PELGRIN (2002), “Financial Development and Investment: Panel Data Evidence for OECD Countries from 1970 to 1997”, Applied Economics Letters, 9: 1–7.
  • SEYHUN, Ömer K. (2006), “Avrupa Birliğindeki Demografik Dönüşümün Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği’ne Üyeliği Çerçevesinde İşgücü Piyasalarına Yansıması”, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, TCMB, Ankara.
  • SHAN, Jordan Z., MORRIS, Alan G. and Fiona SUN (2001), “Financial De-velopment and Economic Growth: An Egg and Chicken Problem?”, Review of In-ternational Economics, 9(3): 443-454.
  • TELATAR, Osman M. and Harun TERZI (2010), “Nüfus ve Eğitimin Eko-nomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Atatürk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 24(2) : 198-199.
  • WILLIAMSON, Jeffrey G. (2001), Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Inequality. Population Matters. Chapter 5. New York : Oxford University Press.
  • WOOD, Anthony (1993), “Financial Development and Economic Growth In Barbados: Causal Evidence”, Savings And Development, 17(4): 379-390.
  • WORLD BUSINESS COUNCIL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (2007), Promoting small and medium enterprises for sustainable development. Re-trieved June 09, 2010, from http://www.wbcsd.org
  • www.akparti.org.tr

2023’DE DÜNYA: NÜFUS, SERMAYE PİYASALARI ve EKONOMİK BÜYÜKLÜK İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Yıl 2015, Sayı: 15, 103 - 122, 20.06.2015

Muhammet Kaya İbrahim Bozkurt Rıfat Karakuş Sezer Öksüz

https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.88810

Öz

Bu çalışma iki
amaca odaklanmaktadır.Çalışmanın ilk amacı; nüfusta, yoksul
nüfusta ve sermaye piyasalarının gelişiminde meydana gelen
değişim ile GSYİH’de meydana gelen değişim arasındaki
ilişkiyi belirlemektir. Çalışmanın ikinci amacı ise belirlenen
ilişkileri kullanarak ülkelerin 2023 yılındaki durumunu tahmin
etmektir. İlgili değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri belirlemek
için 135 ülkenin 1980 ile 2010 yılları arasındaki verileri
analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, nüfustaki değişim ile
sermaye piyasasındaki gelişimin GSYİH üzerinde istatistiki olarak
anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Ayrıca,
nüfustaki artış ile yoksulluk arasında da istatistiki olarak
anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında; E7 ülkelerinde
beklenen gelişimin, G7 ülkelerindeki beklenen gelişimden daha
fazla olduğu ortaya konulmuştur

Anahtar Kelimeler

GSYİH Yoksulluk Nüfus Sermaye Piyasaları.

Kaynakça

  • AKSOY, Ahmet, and Cihan TANRIÖVEN (2007), Sermaye Piyasası Yatırım Araçları ve Analizi, 3rd edition, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • ALÖVSAT, Müslümov (1998), “Stock Markets And Economic Growth: A Causality Test”, Boğaziçi University.
  • BAŞOĞLU, Ufuk, CEYLAN, Ali, and İlker PARASIZ (2009), Finans, Teori, Kurum, Uygulama, Bursa: Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • BEKAERT, Geert, and Campbell HARVEY (2001), “Economic Growth and Financial Liberalization”, Duke University, Durham, NC and Research Associate in the NBER’s Program on Asset Pricing.
  • BENCHIVENGA, Valerie R., and Bruce D. SMITH (1993), “Some Conse-quences of Credit Rationing in an Endogenous Growth Model”, Journal of Econom-ic Dynamics and Control, 17(1-2): 97-122.
  • BENCHIVENGA, Valerie R., SMITH, Bruce D., and Ross M. STARR (1996), “Equity Markets, Transaction Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration”, The World Bank Economic Review, 10 (2): 241-265.
  • BOYD, John H., and Bruce D. SMITH (1992), “Intermediation and the Equi-librium Allocation of Investment Capital: Implications for Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 30: 409-432.
  • BLOOM, David E., CANNING, David and Jaypee SEVILLA (2005), “Growth and the Demographic Transition”, M.I.T. National Bureau Of Economic Research, Working Paper, No: 8685.
  • CAPORALE, Guglielmo M., HOWELLS, Peter G.A. and Alaa M. SOLIMAN (2003), “Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Casual Linkage”, Journal Of Economic Development, 29 (1):33-50.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, Dimitris K., and Efthymios G. TSIONAS (2004), “Fi-nancial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Co-Integration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, 73: 55–74.
  • COSTELLO, Declan (2005), “Europe After The Enlargement”, The Econom-ic and Budgetary Implications of Ageing Populations Conference, Warsaw.
  • CURRAIS, Luis (2000), “From The Maltusian Regime to the Demographic Transition: Contemporary Research and Beyond”, Economica, 2(3): 75-101.
  • DARRAT, Ali (1999), “Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related? Another Look at the Evidence ,” International Economic Journal, 13(3): 19–35.
  • DARRAT, Ali, and Yousif K. AL-YOUSIF (1999), “On the Long-Run Rela-tionship Between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries”, Eastren Economic Journal, 25(3): 301-312.
  • DELIKTAŞ, Ertuğrul (2001), “Malthusgil Yaklaşımdan Modern Ekonomik Büyümeye”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 1 (1).
  • DEMETRIADES, Panicos O., and Khaled A. HUSSEIN (1996), “Does Fi-nancial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time Series Evidence from 16 Countries.” Journal of Development Economics, 51: 387–411.
  • DEVEREUX, Michael B., and Gregor W. SMITH (1994), “International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, 35(4): 535-550.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudi, and Stanley FISCHER (1998), Makroekonomi Birinci Basım, Çeviri. İstanbul: McGraw-Hill –Akademi Ortak Yayını.
  • GREENWOOD, Jeremy, and Boyan JOVANOVIC (1990), “Financial De-velopment, Growth, and the Distribution of Income”, Journal of Political Economy, 98: 1076-1107.
  • GREENWOOD, Jeremy, and Bruce D. SMITH (1997), “Financial Markets in Development, and The Development of Financial Markets”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 21: 145–181.
  • GOLDSMITH, Raymond W. (1969), Financial Structure and Development. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N (2001), Basic Econometrics. Interpreters: Ümit Şenesen & Göktürk Senesen. 2nd edition. İstanbul: Literatür Publications.
  • http://api.worldbank.org/datafiles/sp.pop.dpnd_ındicator_metadata_en_excel.xls from 07.11.2011
  • http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/povDuplic.html from 07.11.2011
  • http://www.oecd.org/document/0,3746,en_2649_201185_46462759_1_1_1_1,00.html from 20/11/2011.
  • http://www.sabah.com.tr/Yasam/2011/09/09/basbakan-yine-3-cocuk-dedi , 09/09/2011. from 06/11/2011.
  • JUNG, Woo S (1986), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: In-ternational Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 333-346.
  • KAYA, Muhammed V., and İbrahim BOZKURT (2011), “Unemployment, Per Capita Income (Poverty), Crime Rate And Green Card: The Case of Turkey Be-tween The Years 1993 – 2009”, Dumlupınar University Journal of Social Sciences, 30: 133-139.
  • KÖSE, Nezir (1998), “Granger Nedensellik Testinin Duyarlılığı Üzerine Bir Araştırma: Döviz Kuru-Enflasyon İlişkisinden Amprik Kanıtlar”, DİE Araştırma Sempozyumu Bildiri Özetleri, 152-159
  • KUNT, Aslı D., and Ross LEVINE (2004), Financial Structures and Eco-nomic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Markets and Development. Cambridge: First MIT Pres.
  • LEE, Ronald (2003), “The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fun-damentals of Change”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (4): 167-190.
  • LEE, Ronald, and Timothy MILLER (1997), The Life Time Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants and Their Descendants: Project on the Economic Demography of Interage Income Reallocation. The New Americans.
  • LEVINE, Ross, and Sara ZERVOS (1996), “Stock Markets, Banks and Eco-nomic Long-Run Growth.” The World Bank, Policy Research Depertmant, Working Paper No 1690: 1–44.
  • LEVINE, Ross (1991), “Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy”, Journal of Finance, 46 (4): 1445-1465.
  • LUCAS, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22: 3–42.
  • LYONS, Susanna E., and Victor MURINDE (1994), “Cointegration And Granger-Causality Testing Of Hypotheses On Supply-Leading And Demand-Following Finance”, Economic Notes, 23(2): 308-316.
  • MCKIBBIN, Warwick J. (2006), “The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition.” The Australian National University Cama Working Paper, No:6
  • MUMCU, Onur, and Esen ÇAĞLAR (2006), Türkiye’nin Nüfusu Zenginlik Kaynağı Olabilir mi?. TEPAV Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Enstitüsü.
  • OBSTFELD, Maurice (1994), “Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth”, American Economic Review, 84 (5): 1310-1329.
  • ODEDOKUN, M.O. (1989), “Causalities Between Financial Aggregates and Economic Activities in Nigeria: The Results from Granger’s Test”, Savings and De-velopment, 23(1): 101-111.
  • PATRICK, Hugh T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14 (2): 174-189.
  • ROBINSON, Joan (1952), The Rate of Interest and Other Essays. London: Macmillan Press.
  • SARAÇ, M. & İ. BOZKURT (2011), “KOBİ’lerin halka açılma eğilimleri ve gelişen işletmeler piyasası’nın KOBİ’lerin halka açılma istekleri üzerine etkisi: Çankırı-Kastamonu-Sinop bölgesi örneği”, The Journal of Accounting and Finance, vol. 49, pp. 89-98.
  • SCHICH, Sebastian, and Florian PELGRIN (2002), “Financial Development and Investment: Panel Data Evidence for OECD Countries from 1970 to 1997”, Applied Economics Letters, 9: 1–7.
  • SEYHUN, Ömer K. (2006), “Avrupa Birliğindeki Demografik Dönüşümün Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği’ne Üyeliği Çerçevesinde İşgücü Piyasalarına Yansıması”, Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, TCMB, Ankara.
  • SHAN, Jordan Z., MORRIS, Alan G. and Fiona SUN (2001), “Financial De-velopment and Economic Growth: An Egg and Chicken Problem?”, Review of In-ternational Economics, 9(3): 443-454.
  • TELATAR, Osman M. and Harun TERZI (2010), “Nüfus ve Eğitimin Eko-nomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme”, Atatürk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 24(2) : 198-199.
  • WILLIAMSON, Jeffrey G. (2001), Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Inequality. Population Matters. Chapter 5. New York : Oxford University Press.
  • WOOD, Anthony (1993), “Financial Development and Economic Growth In Barbados: Causal Evidence”, Savings And Development, 17(4): 379-390.
  • WORLD BUSINESS COUNCIL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (2007), Promoting small and medium enterprises for sustainable development. Re-trieved June 09, 2010, from http://www.wbcsd.org
  • www.akparti.org.tr
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Muhammet Kaya Bu kişi benim

İbrahim Bozkurt Bu kişi benim

Rıfat Karakuş Bu kişi benim

Sezer Öksüz Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Haziran 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Sayı: 15

Kaynak Göster

APA Kaya, M., Bozkurt, İ., Karakuş, R., Öksüz, S. (2015). WORLD IN 2023: ESTIMATION BY POPULATION, CAPITAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC SIZE. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(15), 103-122. https://doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.88810


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