Araştırma Makalesi
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SHORT AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF INCOME AND INTEREST RATE ON HOUSE PRICES

Yıl 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZİ Özel Sayısı, 141 - 152, 19.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.439535

Öz

The purpose of this study is to
investigate the short and long-run effects of income and interest rate for
housing loan on house prices in Turkey. The data used in this study are monthly
and cover the period of 2010:01-2017:09. In this study, the long run
relationships between the variables were investigated by using the Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran and Shin
(1999). The results of ARDL bounds testing identify the presence of the
long-run relationship between housing prices, income and interest rate for housing
loan. The findings indicate that income has a positive effect on housing prices
in the long-run. Interest rate for housing loan does not have any effect on
housing prices in the long run. However, interest rate for housing loan has a
negative effect in the short-run.

Kaynakça

  • Abelson, P., Joyeux, R., Milunovich, G. Ve Chung, D. (2005). Explaining House Prices in Austra-lia: 1970-2003. The Economic Record, 81(255), 96-103.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları İle Makro Ekonomik Değiskenler Arasındaki İliskinin Arastırılması. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 223-238.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Ghodsi, S. Y. (2017). Asymmetric Causality and Asymetric Cointegra-tion between Income and House Prices in the United States of America. International Real Estate Review, 20(2), 127-165.
  • Carliner, G. (1973). Income Elasticity of Housing Demand, Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(4), 528-532
  • Case, K. E. ve Shiller, R. J. (2003). Is there a Bubble in the Housing Market?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(2), 299-342.
  • Chen, M. ve Patel, K. (1998). House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Tai-pei New Dwelling Market. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society, 1(1), 101-126.
  • Çankaya, S. (2013). Konut Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik faktörler Arası İlişkiye Global Bakış. Ma-liye Finans Yazıları, 27(100), 143-154.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Se-ries with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057-1072.
  • Duesenberry, J. ve Kistin, H. (1953). The Role of Demand in the Economic Structure. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Durkaya, M. ve Yamak, R. (2004). Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi. İktisat, İş-letme ve Finans Dergisi, 19(217), 75-87.
  • Egert, B. ve Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Comparative Economic Studies, 49, 368-388.
  • Englund, P. ve Ioannides, Y.M. (1997). House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Pers-pective. Journal of Housing Economics, 6, 119-136
  • Erdem, H. F. ve Yamak, N. (2018). The Long-Run Reationship between Hedonic Houce Prices and Consumer Prices: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. M. K. Terzioğlu (Ed.), S. Dal (Co-Ed.), Econometrics: Methods & Applications, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi, 19-30.
  • Fernandez-Kranz, D. ve Hon, M. T. (2006). A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?. Journal of Real Estate Finan-ce and Economics, 32, 449-470.
  • Gallin, J. (2006). The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets. Real Estate Economics, 34(3), 417-438.
  • Ghodsi, S. H. (2017). Nonlinear ARDL Approach and The Housing Market in the U.S. The Univer-sity of Wisconsin-Milwaukee UWM Digital Commons, Theses and Dissertations, 1622.
  • Giussani, B., Hsia, M. ve Tsolacos, S. (1992). A Comparative Analysis of the Major Determinants of Office Rental Values in Europe, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 11, 157-173
  • Hausman, J. A. ve Wise, D. A. (1980). Discontinuous Budget Constraints and Estimation: The Demand for Housing. Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 75–96.
  • Holly, S. ve Jones, N. (1997). House Prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, Demography and Asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14, 549-565.
  • Hort, K. (1998). The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994. Journal of Housing Economics, 7, 93-120.Jud, G. D. ve Winkler, D. T. (2002). The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices, Journal of Real Estate Research, 23(1-2), 29-45
  • Katrakilidis, C. ve Trachanas, E. (2012). What Drives Housing Price Dynamics in Greece: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1064-1069.
  • Lebe, F. ve Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye’nin Konut Talebinin Analizi: 1970-2011. Atatürk Üniver-sitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(1), 57-83.
  • Lee, T. H. (1963). Demand for Housing: A Cross-Section Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(2), 190-196.
  • Mikhed, V. ve Zemcik, P. (2009). Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence. Journal of Housing Economics, 18, 140-149.
  • Oikarinen, E. (2007). Studies on Housing Price Dynamics. (Doktora Tezi). Turku School of Eco-nomics. Series A-9.
  • Öztürk, N. ve Fitöz, E. (2009). Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Uygula-ma. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(10), 21-46.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Co-integration Analysis. S. Strom (Ed.) Econometrics and Eonomic Theory in the 20th Cen-tury: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Saarinen, L. (2013). A Cointegration Analysis of House Price Formation in the Helsinki Metro-politan Area. ( Master Tezi). University of Helsinki, Faculty of Social Sciences, Helsinki.
  • Temere, D. S. ve Knudsen, D. (2016). Housing Model-A Cointegration Analysis. Danmarks Sta-tistik Modelgruppen, 1-13.
  • Uysal, D. ve Yiğit, M. (2016). Türkiye’de Konut Talebinin Belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 19(1), 185-209.
  • Winger, A. R. (1968). Housing and Income. Western Economic Journal, 6(3), 226-232.
  • Zhu, H. (2006). The Structure of Housing Finance Markets and House Prices in Asia, BIS Quar-terly Review, December, 55-69.

GELİR VE FAİZ ORANLARININ KONUT FİYATLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ KISA VE UZUN DÖNEM ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2018, Prof. Dr. Harun TERZİ Özel Sayısı, 141 - 152, 19.09.2018
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.439535

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye
örneğinde gelir ve konut kredisi faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerindeki
kısa ve uzun dönem etkilerini araştırmaktır. Çalışmada kullanılan veriler aylık
olup 2010:01-2017:09 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki
uzun dönem ilişkiler Pesaran ve Shin (1999) tarafından geliştirilen Gecikmesi
Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak
araştırılmıştır. ARDL sınır testi sonuçlarına göre, konut fiyatları ile gelir
ve konut kredisi faiz oranı arasında uzun dönem ilişkinin varlığı tespit
edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, uzun dönemde gelirin konut fiyatları üzerinde
pozitif etki yarattığını göstermiştir. Konut kredisi faiz oranının ise uzun
dönemde konut fiyatları üzerinde etkili olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Bununla
birlikte, kısa dönemde konut kredisi faiz oranlarının konut fiyatları üzerinde negatif
etki yarattığı tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abelson, P., Joyeux, R., Milunovich, G. Ve Chung, D. (2005). Explaining House Prices in Austra-lia: 1970-2003. The Economic Record, 81(255), 96-103.
  • Badurlar, İ. Ö. (2008). Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatları İle Makro Ekonomik Değiskenler Arasındaki İliskinin Arastırılması. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 223-238.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Ghodsi, S. Y. (2017). Asymmetric Causality and Asymetric Cointegra-tion between Income and House Prices in the United States of America. International Real Estate Review, 20(2), 127-165.
  • Carliner, G. (1973). Income Elasticity of Housing Demand, Review of Economics and Statistics, 55(4), 528-532
  • Case, K. E. ve Shiller, R. J. (2003). Is there a Bubble in the Housing Market?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003(2), 299-342.
  • Chen, M. ve Patel, K. (1998). House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Tai-pei New Dwelling Market. Journal of the Asian Real Estate Society, 1(1), 101-126.
  • Çankaya, S. (2013). Konut Fiyatları ve Makroekonomik faktörler Arası İlişkiye Global Bakış. Ma-liye Finans Yazıları, 27(100), 143-154.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Se-ries with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Dickey, D.A. ve Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057-1072.
  • Duesenberry, J. ve Kistin, H. (1953). The Role of Demand in the Economic Structure. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Durkaya, M. ve Yamak, R. (2004). Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Talep Yönlü Analizi. İktisat, İş-letme ve Finans Dergisi, 19(217), 75-87.
  • Egert, B. ve Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Comparative Economic Studies, 49, 368-388.
  • Englund, P. ve Ioannides, Y.M. (1997). House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Pers-pective. Journal of Housing Economics, 6, 119-136
  • Erdem, H. F. ve Yamak, N. (2018). The Long-Run Reationship between Hedonic Houce Prices and Consumer Prices: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. M. K. Terzioğlu (Ed.), S. Dal (Co-Ed.), Econometrics: Methods & Applications, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi, 19-30.
  • Fernandez-Kranz, D. ve Hon, M. T. (2006). A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?. Journal of Real Estate Finan-ce and Economics, 32, 449-470.
  • Gallin, J. (2006). The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets. Real Estate Economics, 34(3), 417-438.
  • Ghodsi, S. H. (2017). Nonlinear ARDL Approach and The Housing Market in the U.S. The Univer-sity of Wisconsin-Milwaukee UWM Digital Commons, Theses and Dissertations, 1622.
  • Giussani, B., Hsia, M. ve Tsolacos, S. (1992). A Comparative Analysis of the Major Determinants of Office Rental Values in Europe, Journal of Property Valuation and Investment, 11, 157-173
  • Hausman, J. A. ve Wise, D. A. (1980). Discontinuous Budget Constraints and Estimation: The Demand for Housing. Review of Economic Studies. 47(1), 75–96.
  • Holly, S. ve Jones, N. (1997). House Prices since the 1940s: Cointegration, Demography and Asymmetries. Economic Modelling, 14, 549-565.
  • Hort, K. (1998). The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994. Journal of Housing Economics, 7, 93-120.Jud, G. D. ve Winkler, D. T. (2002). The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices, Journal of Real Estate Research, 23(1-2), 29-45
  • Katrakilidis, C. ve Trachanas, E. (2012). What Drives Housing Price Dynamics in Greece: New Evidence from Asymmetric ARDL Cointegration. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1064-1069.
  • Lebe, F. ve Akbaş, Y. E. (2014). Türkiye’nin Konut Talebinin Analizi: 1970-2011. Atatürk Üniver-sitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(1), 57-83.
  • Lee, T. H. (1963). Demand for Housing: A Cross-Section Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(2), 190-196.
  • Mikhed, V. ve Zemcik, P. (2009). Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence. Journal of Housing Economics, 18, 140-149.
  • Oikarinen, E. (2007). Studies on Housing Price Dynamics. (Doktora Tezi). Turku School of Eco-nomics. Series A-9.
  • Öztürk, N. ve Fitöz, E. (2009). Türkiye’de Konut Piyasasının Belirleyicileri: Ampirik Bir Uygula-ma. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 5(10), 21-46.
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Co-integration Analysis. S. Strom (Ed.) Econometrics and Eonomic Theory in the 20th Cen-tury: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Saarinen, L. (2013). A Cointegration Analysis of House Price Formation in the Helsinki Metro-politan Area. ( Master Tezi). University of Helsinki, Faculty of Social Sciences, Helsinki.
  • Temere, D. S. ve Knudsen, D. (2016). Housing Model-A Cointegration Analysis. Danmarks Sta-tistik Modelgruppen, 1-13.
  • Uysal, D. ve Yiğit, M. (2016). Türkiye’de Konut Talebinin Belirleyicileri (1970-2015): Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Meslek Yüksekokulu Dergisi, 19(1), 185-209.
  • Winger, A. R. (1968). Housing and Income. Western Economic Journal, 6(3), 226-232.
  • Zhu, H. (2006). The Structure of Housing Finance Markets and House Prices in Asia, BIS Quar-terly Review, December, 55-69.
Toplam 34 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Fatma Kolcu

Nebiye Yamak

Yayımlanma Tarihi 19 Eylül 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Prof. Dr. Harun TERZİ Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Kolcu, F., & Yamak, N. (2018). GELİR VE FAİZ ORANLARININ KONUT FİYATLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ KISA VE UZUN DÖNEM ETKİLERİ. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi141-152. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.439535

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