Yıl 2019, Cilt , Sayı 23, Sayfalar 79 - 94 2019-04-09

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Oğuz TUMTURK [1]


.Bu çalışma döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat akımları üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisini Türkiye, Endonezya, Brezilya, Meksika, Polonya ve Şili gelişmekte olan ülkeleri özelinde incelemektedir. Döviz kuru oynaklığı, hem ARCH/GARCH modeli hem de hareketli standart sapmalar bazlı ölçümlerle elde edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme modeli sonuçları Brezilya, Endonezya ve Şili özelinde bir eşbütünleşme ilşkisinin varlığını tespit edemezken diğer ülkelerde eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. İkinci olarak, dış dünya gelir düzeyi Türkiye, Meksika ve Polonya’da ihracat akımlarını etkileyen en etkili değişkendir. Üçüncü olarak, Türkiye ve Meksika’da teorik beklentilere uygun şekilde reel döviz kuru düzeyi ile ihracat akımları arasında anlamlı negatif ilişkiler bulunmuştur. Son olarak ise, döviz kuru oynaklığı Polonya’da ihracat akımlarını olumsuz etkilerken, Türkiye’de ihracat üzerinde anlamlı pozitif ilişkiler üretmektedir.

This article investigates the long run impacts of exchange rate volatilities on export volumes in six developing countries, Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Poland, and Chile. The exchange rate volatility is estimated by both ARCH/GARCH and moving sample standard deviation-based volatility proxies. Error correction representation of the long run export model reveals that there is not cointegration relationship for Brazil, Indonesia, and Chile while the results support the cointegration relationship for Turkey, Mexico, and Poland.  Second, world income is major determinant driving export volumes in Turkey, Mexico, and Poland. Third, there is a significant negative relationship between exchange rate level and export volumes in Turkey and Mexico in line with theory. Finally, the measure of exchange rate volatility carries a significant negative coefficient in the case of Poland but a significant positive coefficient in the case of Turkey. 

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Orcid: 0000-0002-1935-0858
Yazar: Oğuz TUMTURK (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: ORDU ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ÜNYE İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 9 Nisan 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { ulikidince469174, journal = {Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi}, issn = {1307-9832}, eissn = {1307-9859}, address = {}, publisher = {Kenan ÇELİK}, year = {2019}, volume = {}, pages = {79 - 94}, doi = {10.18092/ulikidince.469174}, title = {THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES}, key = {cite}, author = {TUMTURK, Oğuz} }
APA TUMTURK, O . (2019). THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi , (23) , 79-94 . DOI: 10.18092/ulikidince.469174
MLA TUMTURK, O . "THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019 ): 79-94 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ulikidince/issue/41810/469174>
Chicago TUMTURK, O . "THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi (2019 ): 79-94
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AU - Oğuz TUMTURK Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.469174 DO - 10.18092/ulikidince.469174 T2 - Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 79 EP - 94 VL - IS - 23 SN - 1307-9832-1307-9859 M3 - doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.469174 UR - https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.469174 Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES %A Oğuz TUMTURK %T THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES %D 2019 %J Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi %P 1307-9832-1307-9859 %V %N 23 %R doi: 10.18092/ulikidince.469174 %U 10.18092/ulikidince.469174
ISNAD TUMTURK, Oğuz . "THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES". Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi / 23 (Nisan 2019): 79-94 . https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.469174
AMA TUMTURK O . THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. UİİİD. 2019; (23): 79-94.
Vancouver TUMTURK O . THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT FLOWS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi. 2019; (23): 94-79.