THE IMPACT OF EXPECTATION SURVEYS ON PRODUCTION

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 23, 225 - 236, 09.04.2019

Serkan Çankaya Elçin Aykaç Alp

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.471352

Cited By: 2

Öz

This study aims to analzye the effect of confidence on
industrial production by using consumer confidence and real sector confidence
indices. The data set covers Turkish monthly data of 2007:01-2017:12. Since the
time period covers the 2008 crisis, the periods are analyzed seperately; the crises
period of 2007-2010 and the rather stable period of 2010-2017. The data is
analyzed for seasonality and trend components and adjusted for the analzed period.
The stationarity of all the variables are tested by unit root tests and the VEC
models results reveal that the effect of consumer confidence index on the
industrial production is observed significantly however the effect of real
sector confidence index on industrial prıoduction index is less significant when
compared to the consumer confidence index. In both analysis periods, the effect
of confidence indices reveals a more significant effect on production during
the crisis periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Industrial production index, Consumer confidence index, real sector confidence index

BEKLENTİ ENDEKSLERİNİN SANAYİ ÜRETİMİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu
çalışmada sanayi üretim düzeyinde etkili olan geleneksel makroekonomik
faktörlerden farklı olarak üreticilere ve tüketicilere yönelik güven endeksleri
aracılığıyla ekonomiye duyulan güvenin üretim seviyesi üzerindeki etkisi
araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti Türkiye için aylık olarak
2007:01-2017:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. İncelenen dönemin 2008 krizini de
içinde barındıran bir dönem olması sebebiyle kriz etkisinin görüldüğü 2007-2010
dönemi ile kriz sonrası görece istikrarlı dönem olarak kabul edebileceğimiz
2010-2017 dönemleri ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. İncelenen dönemde verilerin
hepsinde mevsimsellik ve trend bileşenlerinin varlığı saptanmış ve
arındırılmıştır. Birim kök testleri vasıtasıyla tüm değişkenlerin aynı
dereceden durağan olduğu saptandıktan sonra elde edilen VEC modelleri
neticesinde tüketici güven endeksinin sanayi üretimi üzerinde belirli düzeyde
etkili olduğu, reel kesim güven endeksinin etkisinin tüketici güven endeksine
kıyasla daha sınırlı kaldığı görülmektedir. Her iki analiz dönemde de kriz
dönemlerinde güven endekslerinin etkilerinin daha belirgin olarak hissedildiği
gözlemlenmiştir.   

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, Tüketici Güven Endeksi

Kaynakça

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