Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

BALASSA-SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS FOR DIFFERENT INCOME GROUPS

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 30, 89 - 106, 25.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.771888

Öz

According to the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis which explains the deviations of real exchange rate from purchasing power parity with the changes in countries’ relative productivity, the real exchange rate appreciates when there is a rise in countries’ relative productivity. A wide range of studies examining the validity of Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis have revealed different findings for different set of countries. In this study, it is examined whether there exists a positive relationship between real exchange rate and growth for large panel data set comprising 82 countries and 1980-2017 period. Besides, it offers a comparative analysis by estimating real exchange rate models for group of countries with different levels of income. Panel Dynamic OLS estimation results for the whole country supports the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis showing that domestic currency appreciates as productivity rises. The analysis for sub-income groups indicate that, the hypothesis is strongly valid for high-income and medium-income groups, while it is not supported for low-income group. Positif effect of relative roductivity on real exchange rate is higher for high-income countries than middle-income countries.

Kaynakça

  • Altunöz, U. (2014) Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Asea, P. ve Mendoza E. (1994). The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General Equilibrium Apprasial. Review of International Economics, 2(3), 244-267.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A. B. M. (2004). ARDL approach to test the productivity bias hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488.
  • Balassa, B. (1964). The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal. The Journal of Political Economy. 72(6), 584-596.
  • Bordo M., Choudri, E., Fazio, G. ve MacDonald, R. (2017). The Real Exchange Rate in The Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered. Journal of International Money and Finance, 75, 69-92.
  • Cassel, G. (1918). Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges. The Economic Journal, 28(112), 413-415.
  • Chinn, M. ve Johnston, L. (1996). Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks: evidence from a panel of 14 countries. (No. w5709). National bureau of economic research.
  • Choudhri, E. U. ve Khan, M. S. (2005). Real exchange rates in developing countries: are Balassa-Samuelson effects present? IMF Staff Papers, 52(3), 387-409.
  • Chowdhury, K. (2012). Modelling the dynamics, structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(2), 343-358.
  • De Gregorio, J. ve Wolf, H. C. (1994). Terms of trade, productivity, and the real exchange rate” (No. w4807). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Égert, B., Drine, I., Lommatzsch, K. ve Rault C. (2003). The Balassa–Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?. Journal of comparative Economics, 31(3), 552-572.
  • Drine, I. ve Rault, C. (2005). Can The Balassa-Samuelson Theory Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Movements in OECD Countries? Applied Financial Economics, 15(8), 519-530.
  • Gubler, M. ve Sax, C. (2019). The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155(1), 3.
  • Harrod, R. (1933). International Economics. James Nisbet and Cambridge University Press, London.
  • Hassan, F. (2016). The price of development: The Penn–Balassa–Samuelson effect revisited. Journal of International Economics, 102, 291-309.
  • Im, K., M. , Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Ito, T., Isard, P. ve Symansky, S. (1999). Economic growth and real exchange rate: an overview of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in Asia. Changes in Exchange rates in rapidly Developing countries: theory, practice, and policy issues içinde. University of Chicago Press, 109-132.
  • Iyke B. ve Odhiambo, N. (2017). An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa. Deakin University, Economic Systems, 41 , 297-304.
  • Jabeen, S., Malik, W. S. ve Haider, A. (2011). Testing the Harrod Balassa Samuelson Hypothesis: The Case of Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 379-399.
  • Kao, C. ve Chiang, M. H. (2001). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data”. R. C. Hill, B.h. Baltagi, T. B. Fomby (Eds.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Vol. 15 of Advances in Econometrics içinde. Chapter 7, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 179-222.
  • Küçükpaksoy, İ. ve Çiftçi, İ. (2016). Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye ve Dış Ticaret Ortakları Uygulaması. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kütahya.
  • Lee, J. ve Tang, M. K. (2007). Does productivity growth appreciate the real exchange rate? Review of International Economics, 15(1), 164-187.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (S1), 631–652.
  • MacDonald, R. ve Ricci, L. A. (2005). The real exchange rate and the Balassa–Samuelson effect: the role of the distribution sector. Pacific Economic Review, 10(1), 29-48.
  • Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. S. ve Wren-Lewis, S. (1996). Foundations of international macroeconomics (Vol. 30) Cambridge, MA: MIT press. Öztürk, E. (2013). Türkiye Ekonomisi Temelinde Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezinin Geçerliliği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. Ricardo, D. (1911). The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. J. M. Dent and Sons, London.
  • Ricci, L. A., Milesi‐Ferretti, G. M. ve Lee, J. (2013). Real exchange rates and fundamentals: a cross‐country perspective. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(5), 845-865.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008).The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings papers on economic activity. 2008(2), 365-412.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 145-154.
  • Sax, C. ve Weder, R. (2009). How to explain the high prices in Switzerland? Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 145(4), 463-483.
  • Sonora, R. ve Tica, J. (2009). Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson (Re) Visit Eastern Europe. EFZG Working Paper Series, Vol. 07, 1-20.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order integrated Systems. Econometrica, 61, 783-820.
  • Tica, J. ve Družić, I. (2006). The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect: a survey of empirical evidence. EFZG working paper series, (07), 1-38.
  • Tintin C. (2009). Testing the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 OECD Countries. Master Thesis, Lund University, School of Economics and Management Department of Economics, Lund.

BALASSA-SAMUELSON HİPOTEZİ: FARKLI GELİR GRUPLARI ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 30, 89 - 106, 25.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.771888

Öz

Reel döviz kurunun uzun dönemde satın alma gücü paritesinden sapmalarını ülkelerin göreli verimliliklerindeki değişimle açıklayan Balassa-Samuelson hipotezine göre, ülkelerin göreli verimlilikleri arttıkça reel döviz kuru değer kazanmaktadır. Hipotezin geçerliliği çok sayıda çalışma tarafından incelenmiş ancak farklı ülke ya da ülke grupları için farklı sonuçlar ortaya koyulmuştur. Bu çalışmada, ülkelerin göreli üretkenlikleri ile reel döviz kurları arasında pozitif bir ilişki olup olmadığı 82 ülke ve 1980-2017 dönemini kapsayan geniş bir panel veri seti kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Bunun yanında, farklı gelir düzeyine sahip ülke grupları için reel döviz kuru modelleri tahmin edilerek karşılaştırmalı bir analiz sunulmaktadır. Tüm ülke grubu için yapılan Panel Dinamik OLS tahmin sonuçları, ülkelerin göreli verimliliği arttıkça yerli paranın reel olarak değer kazandığını göstermektedir. Alt gelir grupları için yapılan analizler ise, hipotezin yüksek ve orta-gelir düzeyine sahip ülkelerde güçlü şekilde geçerli iken, düşük-gelirli ülkelerde geçerli olmadığını göstermiştir. Yüksek-gelirli ülkelerde göreli verimliliğin reel döviz kuru üzerindeki pozitif etkisi, orta-gelir düzeyine sahip ülkelere göre daha yüksektir.

Kaynakça

  • Altunöz, U. (2014) Balassa Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(1), 107-122.
  • Asea, P. ve Mendoza E. (1994). The Balassa-Samuelson Model: A General Equilibrium Apprasial. Review of International Economics, 2(3), 244-267.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. ve Nasir, A. B. M. (2004). ARDL approach to test the productivity bias hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483-488.
  • Balassa, B. (1964). The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal. The Journal of Political Economy. 72(6), 584-596.
  • Bordo M., Choudri, E., Fazio, G. ve MacDonald, R. (2017). The Real Exchange Rate in The Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered. Journal of International Money and Finance, 75, 69-92.
  • Cassel, G. (1918). Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges. The Economic Journal, 28(112), 413-415.
  • Chinn, M. ve Johnston, L. (1996). Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks: evidence from a panel of 14 countries. (No. w5709). National bureau of economic research.
  • Choudhri, E. U. ve Khan, M. S. (2005). Real exchange rates in developing countries: are Balassa-Samuelson effects present? IMF Staff Papers, 52(3), 387-409.
  • Chowdhury, K. (2012). Modelling the dynamics, structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(2), 343-358.
  • De Gregorio, J. ve Wolf, H. C. (1994). Terms of trade, productivity, and the real exchange rate” (No. w4807). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Égert, B., Drine, I., Lommatzsch, K. ve Rault C. (2003). The Balassa–Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?. Journal of comparative Economics, 31(3), 552-572.
  • Drine, I. ve Rault, C. (2005). Can The Balassa-Samuelson Theory Explain Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Movements in OECD Countries? Applied Financial Economics, 15(8), 519-530.
  • Gubler, M. ve Sax, C. (2019). The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155(1), 3.
  • Harrod, R. (1933). International Economics. James Nisbet and Cambridge University Press, London.
  • Hassan, F. (2016). The price of development: The Penn–Balassa–Samuelson effect revisited. Journal of International Economics, 102, 291-309.
  • Im, K., M. , Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Ito, T., Isard, P. ve Symansky, S. (1999). Economic growth and real exchange rate: an overview of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis in Asia. Changes in Exchange rates in rapidly Developing countries: theory, practice, and policy issues içinde. University of Chicago Press, 109-132.
  • Iyke B. ve Odhiambo, N. (2017). An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa. Deakin University, Economic Systems, 41 , 297-304.
  • Jabeen, S., Malik, W. S. ve Haider, A. (2011). Testing the Harrod Balassa Samuelson Hypothesis: The Case of Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 379-399.
  • Kao, C. ve Chiang, M. H. (2001). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data”. R. C. Hill, B.h. Baltagi, T. B. Fomby (Eds.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Vol. 15 of Advances in Econometrics içinde. Chapter 7, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 179-222.
  • Küçükpaksoy, İ. ve Çiftçi, İ. (2016). Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezi: Türkiye ve Dış Ticaret Ortakları Uygulaması. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kütahya.
  • Lee, J. ve Tang, M. K. (2007). Does productivity growth appreciate the real exchange rate? Review of International Economics, 15(1), 164-187.
  • Maddala, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61 (S1), 631–652.
  • MacDonald, R. ve Ricci, L. A. (2005). The real exchange rate and the Balassa–Samuelson effect: the role of the distribution sector. Pacific Economic Review, 10(1), 29-48.
  • Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. S. ve Wren-Lewis, S. (1996). Foundations of international macroeconomics (Vol. 30) Cambridge, MA: MIT press. Öztürk, E. (2013). Türkiye Ekonomisi Temelinde Balassa-Samuelson Hipotezinin Geçerliliği. Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1), 653-670.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. Ricardo, D. (1911). The Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. J. M. Dent and Sons, London.
  • Ricci, L. A., Milesi‐Ferretti, G. M. ve Lee, J. (2013). Real exchange rates and fundamentals: a cross‐country perspective. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(5), 845-865.
  • Rodrik, D. (2008).The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings papers on economic activity. 2008(2), 365-412.
  • Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 145-154.
  • Sax, C. ve Weder, R. (2009). How to explain the high prices in Switzerland? Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 145(4), 463-483.
  • Sonora, R. ve Tica, J. (2009). Harrod, Balassa and Samuelson (Re) Visit Eastern Europe. EFZG Working Paper Series, Vol. 07, 1-20.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order integrated Systems. Econometrica, 61, 783-820.
  • Tica, J. ve Družić, I. (2006). The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect: a survey of empirical evidence. EFZG working paper series, (07), 1-38.
  • Tintin C. (2009). Testing the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Evidence from 10 OECD Countries. Master Thesis, Lund University, School of Economics and Management Department of Economics, Lund.
Toplam 35 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Duygu Yolcu Karadam 0000-0003-3139-2003

Büşra Gedikoğlu Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-2936-9974

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Ocak 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 30

Kaynak Göster

APA Yolcu Karadam, D., & Gedikoğlu, B. (2021). BALASSA-SAMUELSON HİPOTEZİ: FARKLI GELİR GRUPLARI ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(30), 89-106. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.771888


______________________________________________________

Adres: KTÜ-İİBF. Oda No:213    61080 TRABZON
e-mailuiiidergisi@gmail.com