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ELEKTRONİK ÖDEMELERİN ENFLASYON DİNAMİKLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ROLÜ

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 32, 1 - 16, 17.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.866774

Öz

The technological progress is transforming economy, trade and also their determinants and dynamics. Technological developments have serious effects on payment services, especially in the last 20 years. The world has been in a low inflation period compared with the previous periods. In this context, this study investigates the relationship between electronic payments and inflation dynamics in Turkey. A single equation model with the electronic payments variables is applied with quarterly data between 2005:3 – 2016:3. In the equation, the total number and total volume of transactions in the electronic fund transfer system are used as proxies for the real economy and monetary policy actions. The estimation results show that both the volume and number of transactions have effects on inflation dynamics.

Kaynakça

  • Bianchi, F., & Civelli, A. (2015). Globalisation and inflation: Evidence from a time-varying VAR. Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(2), 406-433.
  • BIS. (2019). Recent developments in the global economy: Note for a meeting of Governors.
  • Blanchard, O. (2016). The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s? American Economic Review, 106(5), 31-34.
  • Blanchard, O., Cerutti, E., & Summers, L. (2015). Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications. NBER Working Paper: 21726.
  • Busetti, F., Caivano, M., & Monache, D. D. (2019). Domestic and global determinants of inflation: evidence from expectile regression. Banca D’Italia Working Paper: 1225.
  • CBRT Web Site. (n.d.). Payment Systems. Retrieved from The Central Bank of the the Republic of Turkey: www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2013). Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and The Missing Disinflation. NBER Working Papers: 19598.
  • Cote, A. (2015). Inflation expectations and monetary policy . Remarks to the Association Québécoise des Technologies, Mont-Tremblant, Quebec.
  • Dany-Knedlik, G., & Garcia, J. A. (2018). Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in Asean Economies. IMF Working Paper: WP/18/147.
  • Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report. (1997). Monetary Policy and Payment Systems: March 1997.
  • Friedman, M. (1963). Inflation: Causes and Consequences. New York: Asia Publishing House.
  • Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). Money and Business Cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(2), 32-64.
  • Fuhrer, J. (2012). The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics. International Journal of Central Banking, 8(S1), 137-165.
  • Geanakoplos, J. and Dubey, P. (2010). Credit cards and Inflation. Games and Economic Behaviour, 70, pp. 325-353.
  • Goldfeld, M., & Sichel, D. (1990). The Demand for Money. In B. Friedman, & F. Hahn, Handbook of Monetary Economics (pp. 299-353). New York: North-Holland.
  • Gordon, R. J. (2011). The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation. Economica, 78, 10-50.
  • Guerrieri, L., Gust, C., & Lopez-Salido, J. D. (2010). International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(4), 247-280.
  • Guinigundo, D. C. (2016). The role of expectations in inflation dynamics in the Philippines - has it changed following the global financial crisis?, in Settlements, Bank for International eds.,. In Bank for International Settlements, Inflation Mechanisms, Expectations and Monetary Policy (Vol. 89, pp. 291-302). BIS.
  • Guo, P., Cheng, M., & Gao, Z. (2020). Internet Finance, Net Interest Margin, and Non-interest Activities in China's Banking Sector. The Singapore Economic Review.
  • Haldane, A. G., Millard, S., & Saporta, V. (2008). General Introduction: The Future of Payment Systems. In A. G. Haldane, S. Millard, & V. Saporta, The Future of Payment Systems (pp. 1-12). Routledge.
  • Hasan, I., De Renzis, T., & Schmiedel, H. (2012). Retail Payments and Economic Growth. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, No:19.
  • Hawkins, J. (2001). Electronic Finance and Monetary Policy. In Monetary and Economic Department, Electronic finance: A new perspective and challenges (pp. 98-105). BIS Papers, No:7.
  • Johnson, O. G. (1998). The Payment System and Monetary Policy. IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment, PPAA/98/4.
  • Kamber, G., Mohanty, M., & Morley, J. (2020). Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies? BIS Papers, No: 896.
  • Kara, A. H., Öğünç, F., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2017). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: A Historical Accounting. CBRT Research Notes in Economics: 2017-03.
  • Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2012). Pass-through from Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Prices. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 27, 9-28.
  • Kirdaban, İ. (2005). The Develeopments in Payment Systems and The Effects of Payment Systems on Financial Stability. Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey, Expert Thesis.
  • Kogar, Ç. (1995). Financial Innovations and Monetary Control. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research Department, Discussion Paper, No: 9515.
  • Lee, B. L., Worthington, A. C., & Leong, W. H. (2010). Malmquist Indices of Pre- and Post-Deregulation Productivity, Efficiency and Technological Change in the Singaporean Banking Sector. The Singapore Economic Review, 55(04), 599-618.
  • Listfield, R. and Negret, F. (1994). Modernizing Payment Systems In Emerging Economies. World Bank Policy Research Paper WPS 1336.
  • Mavroeidis, S., Plagborg-Moller, M., & Stock, J. (2014). Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1) , 124-188.
  • Mazumder, S. (2018). Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession. Economic Modelling, 71, 202-213.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2010). Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science? In V. Wieland, The Science and Practice of Monetary Policy Today (pp. 81-103). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
  • Oktayer, A. (2011). Financial Innovations and Money Demand. Maliye Dergisi, 160, 351-368.
  • Oyewole, O. S., El-Maude, J. G., Abba, M., & Onuh, M. E. (2013). Electronic Payment System and Economic Growth: A Review of Transition to Cashless Economy in Nigeria‖, , Vol. 2, pp. International Journal of Science, Engineering, Technology, 2, 913–918.
  • Özmen, M. U., & Topaloğlu, M. (2017). Disaggregated Evidence for Exchange Rate and Import Price Pass-through in the Light of Identification Issues, Aggregation Bias and Heterogeneity. CBRT Working Paper, No: 17/08, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Paloviita, M. (2008). Comparing Alternative Phillips Curve Specifications: European Results with Survey-Based Expectations. Applied Economics, 40, 2259-2270.
  • Pringle, R., & Robinson, M. (2002). Introduction. In R. Pringle, & M. Robinson, E-money and Payment System Review (pp. 3-26). London: Central Banking Publication.
  • Reddy, K. S., & Kumarasamy, D. (2015). Is There Any Nexus between Electronic Based Payments in Banking and Inflation? Evidence from India. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(9), 85-95.
  • Roberts, J. M. (1995). New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(4), 975-984.
  • Rosengren, E. S. (2011). Defining financial stability, and some policy implications of applying the definition. Speech 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Rossi, S. (2007). Money and Payments in Theory and Practice. London: Routledge.
  • Rudd, J., & Whelan, K. (2007). Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(1), 155-170.
  • Rumelili Koç, Ö. M. (2019). Central Banks within the Context of Central Banking Service Autonomy. Memleket Siyaset Yönetim, 14(31), 1-28.
  • Rumelili, Ö. M. (2006). Information Technology Risks in Payment Systems. Ankara University, Unpublished master thesis.
  • Schmitz, S. W., & Wood, G. E. (2006). Institutional change in the payments system and monetary policy - an introduction. In S. W. Schmitz, & G. E. Wood, Institutional Change in the Payments System and Monetary Policy (pp. 1-30). Routledge.
  • Schoellner, T. (2002). The Effects of Credit Cards on Money Demand. Unpublished Ph.D Dissertation, Ohio State University.
  • Stevens, A., & Wauters, J. (2018). Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data. Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2008). Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts. NBER Working Paper: 14322.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2019). Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation. NBER Working Paper No. 25987.
  • Şahin, H., & Koç, Ü. (2019). The Role of Money in Turkish Economy. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 34(4), 565-572.
  • The Banks Association of Turkey. (2017). Digital, Internet and Mobile Banking Statistics. Istanbul: The Banks Association of Turkey.
  • The Perryman Group Report. (2015). The Electronic Payment System: An Assessment of Benefits for the US and State Economies. The Perryman Group.
  • World Payment Report. (2017). Capgemini; BNP Paribas World Payment Report. Capgemini and BNP Paribas.
  • World Payment Report. (2019). Capgemini World Payments Report 2019. Capgemini Research Institute.
  • Zandi, M., Singh, V., Koropeckyj, S. and Matsiras, P. (2016). The Impact of Electronic Payments on Economic Growth. Moody’s Analytics.
  • Zhang, C., Osborn, D. R., & Kim, D. H. (2008). The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(4), 667-699.

THE ROLE OF ELECTRONIC PAYMENTS IN INFLATION DYNAMICS

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 32, 1 - 16, 17.09.2021
https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.866774

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Bianchi, F., & Civelli, A. (2015). Globalisation and inflation: Evidence from a time-varying VAR. Review of Economic Dynamics, 18(2), 406-433.
  • BIS. (2019). Recent developments in the global economy: Note for a meeting of Governors.
  • Blanchard, O. (2016). The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s? American Economic Review, 106(5), 31-34.
  • Blanchard, O., Cerutti, E., & Summers, L. (2015). Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications. NBER Working Paper: 21726.
  • Busetti, F., Caivano, M., & Monache, D. D. (2019). Domestic and global determinants of inflation: evidence from expectile regression. Banca D’Italia Working Paper: 1225.
  • CBRT Web Site. (n.d.). Payment Systems. Retrieved from The Central Bank of the the Republic of Turkey: www.tcmb.gov.tr
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2013). Is The Phillips Curve Alive and Well After All? Inflation Expectations and The Missing Disinflation. NBER Working Papers: 19598.
  • Cote, A. (2015). Inflation expectations and monetary policy . Remarks to the Association Québécoise des Technologies, Mont-Tremblant, Quebec.
  • Dany-Knedlik, G., & Garcia, J. A. (2018). Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in Asean Economies. IMF Working Paper: WP/18/147.
  • Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report. (1997). Monetary Policy and Payment Systems: March 1997.
  • Friedman, M. (1963). Inflation: Causes and Consequences. New York: Asia Publishing House.
  • Friedman, M., & Schwartz, A. J. (1963). Money and Business Cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics, 45(2), 32-64.
  • Fuhrer, J. (2012). The Role of Expectations in Inflation Dynamics. International Journal of Central Banking, 8(S1), 137-165.
  • Geanakoplos, J. and Dubey, P. (2010). Credit cards and Inflation. Games and Economic Behaviour, 70, pp. 325-353.
  • Goldfeld, M., & Sichel, D. (1990). The Demand for Money. In B. Friedman, & F. Hahn, Handbook of Monetary Economics (pp. 299-353). New York: North-Holland.
  • Gordon, R. J. (2011). The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation. Economica, 78, 10-50.
  • Guerrieri, L., Gust, C., & Lopez-Salido, J. D. (2010). International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(4), 247-280.
  • Guinigundo, D. C. (2016). The role of expectations in inflation dynamics in the Philippines - has it changed following the global financial crisis?, in Settlements, Bank for International eds.,. In Bank for International Settlements, Inflation Mechanisms, Expectations and Monetary Policy (Vol. 89, pp. 291-302). BIS.
  • Guo, P., Cheng, M., & Gao, Z. (2020). Internet Finance, Net Interest Margin, and Non-interest Activities in China's Banking Sector. The Singapore Economic Review.
  • Haldane, A. G., Millard, S., & Saporta, V. (2008). General Introduction: The Future of Payment Systems. In A. G. Haldane, S. Millard, & V. Saporta, The Future of Payment Systems (pp. 1-12). Routledge.
  • Hasan, I., De Renzis, T., & Schmiedel, H. (2012). Retail Payments and Economic Growth. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers, No:19.
  • Hawkins, J. (2001). Electronic Finance and Monetary Policy. In Monetary and Economic Department, Electronic finance: A new perspective and challenges (pp. 98-105). BIS Papers, No:7.
  • Johnson, O. G. (1998). The Payment System and Monetary Policy. IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment, PPAA/98/4.
  • Kamber, G., Mohanty, M., & Morley, J. (2020). Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies? BIS Papers, No: 896.
  • Kara, A. H., Öğünç, F., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2017). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: A Historical Accounting. CBRT Research Notes in Economics: 2017-03.
  • Kara, H., & Öğünç, F. (2012). Pass-through from Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Prices. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 27, 9-28.
  • Kirdaban, İ. (2005). The Develeopments in Payment Systems and The Effects of Payment Systems on Financial Stability. Central Bank Of The Republic Of Turkey, Expert Thesis.
  • Kogar, Ç. (1995). Financial Innovations and Monetary Control. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research Department, Discussion Paper, No: 9515.
  • Lee, B. L., Worthington, A. C., & Leong, W. H. (2010). Malmquist Indices of Pre- and Post-Deregulation Productivity, Efficiency and Technological Change in the Singaporean Banking Sector. The Singapore Economic Review, 55(04), 599-618.
  • Listfield, R. and Negret, F. (1994). Modernizing Payment Systems In Emerging Economies. World Bank Policy Research Paper WPS 1336.
  • Mavroeidis, S., Plagborg-Moller, M., & Stock, J. (2014). Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(1) , 124-188.
  • Mazumder, S. (2018). Inflation in Europe after the Great Recession. Economic Modelling, 71, 202-213.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2010). Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science? In V. Wieland, The Science and Practice of Monetary Policy Today (pp. 81-103). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer.
  • Oktayer, A. (2011). Financial Innovations and Money Demand. Maliye Dergisi, 160, 351-368.
  • Oyewole, O. S., El-Maude, J. G., Abba, M., & Onuh, M. E. (2013). Electronic Payment System and Economic Growth: A Review of Transition to Cashless Economy in Nigeria‖, , Vol. 2, pp. International Journal of Science, Engineering, Technology, 2, 913–918.
  • Özmen, M. U., & Topaloğlu, M. (2017). Disaggregated Evidence for Exchange Rate and Import Price Pass-through in the Light of Identification Issues, Aggregation Bias and Heterogeneity. CBRT Working Paper, No: 17/08, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Paloviita, M. (2008). Comparing Alternative Phillips Curve Specifications: European Results with Survey-Based Expectations. Applied Economics, 40, 2259-2270.
  • Pringle, R., & Robinson, M. (2002). Introduction. In R. Pringle, & M. Robinson, E-money and Payment System Review (pp. 3-26). London: Central Banking Publication.
  • Reddy, K. S., & Kumarasamy, D. (2015). Is There Any Nexus between Electronic Based Payments in Banking and Inflation? Evidence from India. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(9), 85-95.
  • Roberts, J. M. (1995). New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(4), 975-984.
  • Rosengren, E. S. (2011). Defining financial stability, and some policy implications of applying the definition. Speech 46, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Rossi, S. (2007). Money and Payments in Theory and Practice. London: Routledge.
  • Rudd, J., & Whelan, K. (2007). Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(1), 155-170.
  • Rumelili Koç, Ö. M. (2019). Central Banks within the Context of Central Banking Service Autonomy. Memleket Siyaset Yönetim, 14(31), 1-28.
  • Rumelili, Ö. M. (2006). Information Technology Risks in Payment Systems. Ankara University, Unpublished master thesis.
  • Schmitz, S. W., & Wood, G. E. (2006). Institutional change in the payments system and monetary policy - an introduction. In S. W. Schmitz, & G. E. Wood, Institutional Change in the Payments System and Monetary Policy (pp. 1-30). Routledge.
  • Schoellner, T. (2002). The Effects of Credit Cards on Money Demand. Unpublished Ph.D Dissertation, Ohio State University.
  • Stevens, A., & Wauters, J. (2018). Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data. Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2008). Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts. NBER Working Paper: 14322.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2019). Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation. NBER Working Paper No. 25987.
  • Şahin, H., & Koç, Ü. (2019). The Role of Money in Turkish Economy. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 34(4), 565-572.
  • The Banks Association of Turkey. (2017). Digital, Internet and Mobile Banking Statistics. Istanbul: The Banks Association of Turkey.
  • The Perryman Group Report. (2015). The Electronic Payment System: An Assessment of Benefits for the US and State Economies. The Perryman Group.
  • World Payment Report. (2017). Capgemini; BNP Paribas World Payment Report. Capgemini and BNP Paribas.
  • World Payment Report. (2019). Capgemini World Payments Report 2019. Capgemini Research Institute.
  • Zandi, M., Singh, V., Koropeckyj, S. and Matsiras, P. (2016). The Impact of Electronic Payments on Economic Growth. Moody’s Analytics.
  • Zhang, C., Osborn, D. R., & Kim, D. H. (2008). The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(4), 667-699.
Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Hasan Şahin 0000-0001-5922-068X

Ümit Koç

Yayımlanma Tarihi 17 Eylül 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Sayı: 32

Kaynak Göster

APA Şahin, H., & Koç, Ü. (2021). ELEKTRONİK ÖDEMELERİN ENFLASYON DİNAMİKLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ROLÜ. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(32), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.866774


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