TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ İÇİN FAİZ VE ENFLASYON ORANLARI ARASINDA TAVUK-YUMURTA İLİŞKİSİ VAR MI?

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 43, 53 - 72, 05.05.2024

Ayça Sarıalioğlu Hayali , Mohammad Mansoor Lodın , Djallel Aımar , Asiye Küçükosman

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1401135

Öz

Faiz ve enflasyon oranları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi konusunda halen sıcak bir tartışma sürmektedir. Bir taraftan, Fisher Etkisi ile enflasyonun neden, faiz oranının ise sonuç olması beklenmektedir. Öte yandan, Türkiye'deki politika yapıcılar arasında enflasyonun çoğunlukla kredilerin yüksek maliyetini oluşturan yüksek faiz oranlarından kaynaklanan bir sonuç olduğu ileri sürüldüğünden bunun tam tersi, enflasyon sonuç faiz sebep olarak beklenmektedir. Ancak, Türkiye örneğinde gerçek nedenin yüksek faizler değil hükümetin enflasyonun altına indirdiği düşük faizler olduğu güçlü bir şekilde ileri sürülmektedir. Bu bağlamda, makalenin temel amacı faiz ve enflasyon oranları arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 2004A01-2022A03 dönemi için Türkiye örneğinde araştırmaktır. Bulgular ilgili dönemde Türkiye örneği için faiz oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasında iki yönlü Granger nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuç, faiz ve enflasyon oranları arasında tavuk-yumurta ilişkisini desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Faiz Oranları ve Enflasyon Oranları, Fisher Etkisi, Nedensellik İlişkisi, Türkiye Örneği

Etik Beyan

GEREK YOKTUR.

Destekleyen Kurum

BULUNMAMAKTADIR.

Proje Numarası

BULUNMAMAKTADIR.

IS THERE A CHICKEN-AND-EGG RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTEREST AND INFLATION RATES FOR THE TURKISH CASE?

Öz

There is still a hot debate about the causal relationship between interest and inflation rates. On the one hand, through Fisher Effect, it is expected that inflation is the cause while the interest rate is the result. On the other hand, among policymakers in Türkiye, it is expected opposite as inflation is the result and interest rate is the cause since it is argued that inflation is the result mostly stemming from the high-interest rates constituting the high cost of the credits. However, it is strongly argued that low interest rates—which the government has lowered below inflation—rather than high interest rates are the real cause in the Turkish case. In this regard, the key purpose of the paper is to investigate the causal relationship between the interest and inflation rates for the Turkish case for the period of 2004M01-2022M03. The findings reveal that there is a bi-directional Granger causality relationship between the interest rate and the inflation rate for the Turkish case for the relevant period. This result promotes the chicken-and-egg relationship between interest and inflation rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

The Interest Rates and Inflation Rates, Fisher Effect, Causal Relationship, Turkish Case

Proje Numarası

BULUNMAMAKTADIR.

Kaynakça

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