GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERİN HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASALARINDA BAĞLANTILILIĞIN ÖLÇÜLMESİ VE AĞ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 44, 189 - 206, 07.08.2024

Fatmanur Oral İbrahim Özkan

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1452554

Öz

Ülkeler arasındaki siyasi, ekonomik ve finansal entegrasyondaki artış uluslararası piyasa bağlantılarını etkilemektedir. Finansal krizler ülkeler arasında hızla yayılabilmektedir, bu nedenle hisse senedi piyasalarının birbirleriyle olan ilişkilerinin izlenmesi ve ölçülmesi önemlidir. Bu makale gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan toplam 13 ülke için Ocak 1997'den Ağustos 2017'ye kadar günlük hisse senedi getirilerini kullanarak finansal piyasalardaki bağlantılılık derecesini araştırmaktadır. Diebold ve Yilmaz'ın (2009-2012) bağlantılılık ölçüsü, tüm hisse senedi piyasaları için borsa getirilerinin bağlantılılığını ve yayılmaların yönünü incelemek için uygulanmıştır. Buna ek olarak, çalışmada ABD hisse senedi piyasasının diğer tüm hisse senedi piyasalarıyla dinamik bağlantılılığı analiz edilmektedir. Sonuçlar, ABD hisse senedi piyasasının çeşitli bölgelerdeki diğer hisse senedi piyasalarını en çok etkileyen piyasa olduğunu göstermektedir. Dinamik analiz sonuçları, bağlantılılığın zaman içinde, özellikle de çalkantılı dönemlerde değiştiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Gelişmiş ülkelerin çoğu getiri yayılma şoklarının göndericisi konumundayken, gelişmekte olan ülkeler alıcısı konumundadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

finansal bağlantılılık, yayılma endeksi, hisse senedi piyasaları, ağ analizi

MEASURING CONNECTEDNESS AND NETWORK ANALYSIS IN STOCK MARKETS FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Öz

Countries are experiencing a surge in political, economic, and financial integration, consequently shaping international market linkages. Financial crises can rapidly spread between countries, emphasizing the need to monitor and assess stock market connections. This paper investigates the degree of financial market connectedness using daily stock returns from January 1997 to August 2017 for 13 countries, both developed and developing. The connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009-2012) is applied to examine the connectedness of stock market returns and the direction of spillovers for all stock markets. This study also analyzes the dynamic connectedness from the U.S. stock market to all other stock markets. The results indicate that the U.S. stock market is the most influential stock market to the others. The results of the dynamic analysis show that connectedness changes over time, specifically during turmoil periods. Most developed countries are transmitters of return spillover shocks while developing countries are recipients.

Anahtar Kelimeler

financial connectedness, spillover index, stock markets, network analysis

Kaynakça

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