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THE NEXUS BETWEEN AIR TRANSPORTATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKIYE: ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS AND TOURISM-LED GROWTH ANALYSIS

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 48, 35 - 52, 31.07.2025

Bayram Fatih Günbay Sinem Eyüboğlu

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1533793

Öz

Tourism is a vital economic sector that contributes to the country's income, provides employment, and fosters cultural exchange between foreigners and locals. It is also one of the fastest-growing industries in the world, making it a crucial component of economic growth strategies. This study examines the short-term and long-term effects of air transportation, a representative of the tourist industry, on economic growth using the NARDL method and annual data from 1970 to 2020. The model also includes urbanization, social globalization variables, and energy consumption, which is a significant determinant of growth. The results show that the series move together in the long-term and that the impact of decreases in air transportation on economic growth is greater than the impact of enhancement in the long-term. These findings support the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Türkiye.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Air Transportation Economic Growth Social Globalization Tourism

Proje Numarası

1919B012207478

Kaynakça

  • Acheampong, A. O., Boateng, E., Amponsah, M., ve Dzator, J. (2021). Revisiting The Economic Growth–Energy Consumption Nexus: Does Globalization Matter?. Energy Economics, 102, 105472.
  • Akadiri, S. S. Akadiri, A. C. ve Alola, U. V. (2019). Is There Growth Impact of Tourism? Evidence from selected Small Island States. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(12), 1480–1498.
  • Alcalá-Ordóñez, A., Brida, J. G., ve Cárdenas-García, P. J. (2024). Has The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis been Confirmed? Evidence from an Updated Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(22), 3571-3607.
  • Altuntaş, M. ve KILIÇ, E. (2021). Havayolu Taşımacılığı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(1), 187-202.
  • Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M. ve Filis, G. (2015). How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe? Economic Modelling, 44, 142–155.
  • Apergis, N. (2015). Asymmetric Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Poverty in China: Evidence from a Nonlinear Model. Applied Economics Letters, 22(12), 951-954.
  • Aratuo, D. N. ve Etienne, X. L. (2019). Industry Level Analysis of Tourism-Economic Growth in the United States. Tourism Management, 70, 333–340.
  • Baker, D., Merkert, R. ve Kamruzzaman, M. (2015). Regional Aviation and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Australia. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 140–150.
  • Bal, H. Manga, M. ve Akar, P. G. (2019). Havacılık Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 45(45), 353-366.
  • Balaguer, J. ve Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V. ve Adedoyin, F. F. (2021). The Asymmetric Impact of Air Transport on Economic Growth in Spain: Fresh Evidence from the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis. Current issues in tourism, 24(4), 503-519.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Shahbaz, M. ve Sinha, A. (2020). The Effects of Tourism and Globalization over Environmental Degradation in Developed Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7130-7144.
  • Belke, M., Bolat, S., ve Hatemi-J, A. (2021). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth in The Mediterranean Countries: Evidence from Hidden Panel Cointegration Test. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(1), 399–419.
  • Brida, G.J., Bukstein, D. ve Agurre, Z.S. (2016). Dynamic Relationship between Air Transport and Economic Growth in Italy: A Time Series Analysis, Int. Aviation Management, 3(1), 52-67.
  • Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. ve Pulina, M. (2016). Has The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Been Validated? A Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
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TÜRKİYE'DE HAVA TAŞIMACILIĞI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: ASİMETRİK ETKİLER VE TURİZME DAYALI BÜYÜME ANALİZİ

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 48, 35 - 52, 31.07.2025

Bayram Fatih Günbay Sinem Eyüboğlu

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1533793

Öz

Turizm sektörü, ekonominin gelirini arttıran, binlerce istihdam yaratan, ülkenin altyapısını geliştiren ve yabancılar ile vatandaşlar arasında kültürel değişim duygusu yaratan önemli bir sektördür. Uluslararası turizm sektöründeki son gelişmeler, sektörün en hızlı büyüyen alanlardan biri olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla son yıllarda turizm sektörü, ekonomik büyüme stratejilerini belirlemede temel unsurlardan biri haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada 1970- 2020 dönemi için yıllık frekanstaki veriler yardımı ile turizmin temsilcisi olarak havayolu taşımacılığının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki uzun ve kısa dönem etkisi NARDL yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Ayrıca modele kentleşme ve sosyal küreselleşme değişkenleri ile birlikte büyümenin önemli belirleyicilerinden biri olarak kabul edilen enerji tüketimi değişkeni de eklenmiştir. Sonuçlar serilerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiklerini ortaya koymuştur. İlaveten uzun dönemde havayolu taşımacılığındaki azalışların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin artışlara göre daha fazla olduğu bulunmuştur. Buna göre sonuçlar Türkiye’de turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Havayolu taşımacılığı ekonomik büyüme sosyal küreselleşmesi turizm

Destekleyen Kurum

TÜBİTAK

Proje Numarası

1919B012207478

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma TÜBİTAK 2209-A projesi tarafından desteklenmiştir

Kaynakça

  • Acheampong, A. O., Boateng, E., Amponsah, M., ve Dzator, J. (2021). Revisiting The Economic Growth–Energy Consumption Nexus: Does Globalization Matter?. Energy Economics, 102, 105472.
  • Akadiri, S. S. Akadiri, A. C. ve Alola, U. V. (2019). Is There Growth Impact of Tourism? Evidence from selected Small Island States. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(12), 1480–1498.
  • Alcalá-Ordóñez, A., Brida, J. G., ve Cárdenas-García, P. J. (2024). Has The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis been Confirmed? Evidence from an Updated Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 27(22), 3571-3607.
  • Altuntaş, M. ve KILIÇ, E. (2021). Havayolu Taşımacılığı ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(1), 187-202.
  • Antonakakis, N., Dragouni, M. ve Filis, G. (2015). How Strong is the Linkage between Tourism and Economic Growth in Europe? Economic Modelling, 44, 142–155.
  • Apergis, N. (2015). Asymmetric Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Poverty in China: Evidence from a Nonlinear Model. Applied Economics Letters, 22(12), 951-954.
  • Aratuo, D. N. ve Etienne, X. L. (2019). Industry Level Analysis of Tourism-Economic Growth in the United States. Tourism Management, 70, 333–340.
  • Baker, D., Merkert, R. ve Kamruzzaman, M. (2015). Regional Aviation and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Australia. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 140–150.
  • Bal, H. Manga, M. ve Akar, P. G. (2019). Havacılık Sektörü ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 45(45), 353-366.
  • Balaguer, J. ve Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: The Spanish Case. Applied Economics, 34, 877-884.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V. ve Adedoyin, F. F. (2021). The Asymmetric Impact of Air Transport on Economic Growth in Spain: Fresh Evidence from the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis. Current issues in tourism, 24(4), 503-519.
  • Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Shahbaz, M. ve Sinha, A. (2020). The Effects of Tourism and Globalization over Environmental Degradation in Developed Countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(7), 7130-7144.
  • Belke, M., Bolat, S., ve Hatemi-J, A. (2021). The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth in The Mediterranean Countries: Evidence from Hidden Panel Cointegration Test. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(1), 399–419.
  • Brida, G.J., Bukstein, D. ve Agurre, Z.S. (2016). Dynamic Relationship between Air Transport and Economic Growth in Italy: A Time Series Analysis, Int. Aviation Management, 3(1), 52-67.
  • Brida, J. G., Cortes-Jimenez, I. ve Pulina, M. (2016). Has The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Been Validated? A Literature Review. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(5), 394-430.
  • Broock, W. A., Scheinkman, J. A., Dechert, W. D. ve LeBaron, B. (1996). A Test for Independence Based on The Correlation Dimension. Econometric reviews, 15(3), 197-235.
  • Chang, Y.-H. ve Chang, Y.W. (2009). Air Cargo Expansion and Economic Growth: Finding the Empirical Link. Journal of Air Transport Management, 15, 264–265.
  • Chi, J. ve Baek, J. (2013). Dynamic Relationship between Air Transport Demand and Economic Growth in the United States: A New Look. Transport Policy, 29, 257-260.
  • Combes, J. L., Kinda, T., Ouedraogo, R. ve Plane, P. (2019). Financial Flows and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Economic Modelling, 83, 195–209.
  • Dwyer, L. (2015). Globalization of Tourism: Drivers and Outcomes. Tourism Recreation Research, 40(3), 326–339.
  • Eren, A. S., Eryer, A. ve Eryer, S. (2020). Havayolu Taşımacılığı ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi Türkiye Örneği: Ampirik Bir Analiz. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler ve Eğitim Dergisi, 2(3), 236-257.
  • Esen, E. ve Özata, E. (2017). Turizmin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye için Geçerliğinin ARDL Modeli ile Analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(1), 43-58.
  • Fernandes, E. ve Pacheco, R. R. (2010). The Causal Relationship between GDP and Domestic Air Passenger Traffic in Brazil. Transportation Planning and Technology, 33(7), 569-581.
  • Gedikli, A., Erdoğan, S., Çevik, E. I., Çevik, E., Castanho, R. A., ve Couto, G. (2022). Dynamic Relationship between Inter-National Tourism, Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in The OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Var Model. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 5907–5923.
  • Gokmenoglu, K. K., ve Eren, B. M. (2020). The Role of International Tourism on Energy Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(9), 1059–1065.
  • Granger, C. W. ve Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden cointegration. U of California, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
  • Hatemi-J, A., Gupta, R., Kasongo, A., Mboweni, T. ve Netshitenzhe, N. (2014). Are There Asymmetric Causal Relationships Between Tourism and Economic Growth in A Panel Of G-7 Countries. University of Pretoria. Department of Economics Working Paper, 76, 18.
  • Hu, Y., Xiao, J., Deng, Y., Xiao, Y. ve Wang, S. (2015). Domestic Air Passenger Traffic and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Models. Journal of Air Transport Management, 42, 95-100.
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  • Lögün, A., Tüzemen, A., ve Karabacak, E. (2018). Investigation of Relationship between Air Transport and Economic Growth. IV. International Caucasus-Central Asia Foreign Trade and Logistics Congress, 362-368.
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  • Marazzo, M., Scherre, R. ve Fernandes, E. (2010). Air Transport Demand and Economic Growth in Brazil: A Time Series Analysis. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 46(2), 261-269.
  • Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A. ve Marques, A. C. (2017). Augmented Energy-Growth Nexus: Economic, Political and Social Globalization Impacts. Energy Procedia, 136, 97–101.
  • Matzana, V., Oikonomou, A., ve Polemis, M. (2022). Tourism Activity as an Engine of Growth: Lessons learned from theEuropean Union. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(4), 177.
  • McKinnon, R. I. (1964). Foreign Exchange Constraints in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation. The Economic Journal, 74(294), 388–409.
  • Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M. ve Masood Sheikh, S. (2018). Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Tourism Demand in Pakistan: New Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), 408-422.
  • Mukkala, K. ve Tervo, H. (2013). Air Transportation and Regional Growth: Which Way does the Causality Run?. Environment and Planning, 45(6), 1508-1520.
  • Naseem, S. (2021). The Role of Tourism in Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia. Economies, 9(3), 117.
  • Nepal, R., Indra al Irsyad, M. ve Nepal, S. K. (2019). Tourist Arrivals, Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emissions in a Developing Economy–Implications for Sustainable Tourism. Tourism Management, 72, 145–154.
  • Özbey, N. ve Akan, Y. (2022). Türkiye’de Havacılıkta Yolcu ve Uçak Trafiğinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Erzincan Binali Yıldırım Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 82-94.
  • Pablo-Romero, M. D. P. ve Molina, J. A. (2013). Tourism and Economic Growth: A Review of Empirical Literature. Tourism Management Perspectives, 8, 28-41.
  • Perles-Ribes, J. F., Ramón-Rodríguez, A. B., Rubia, A. ve Moreno-Izquierdo, L. (2017). Is The Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid After The Global Economic and Financial Crisis? The Case of Spain 1957–2014. Tourism Management, 61, 96–109.
  • Pesaran, M. H. ve Shin, Y. (1995). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Cambridge, UK: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, 9514, 371-413.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Raihan, A., Voumik, L. C., Akter, S., Ridzuan, A. R., Fahlevi, M., Aljuaid, M., ve Saniuk, S. (2024). Taking Flight: Exploring The Relationship between Air Transport and Malaysian Economic Growth. Journal of Air Transport Management, 115, 102540.
  • Saidi, S. ve Hammami, S. (2017). Modeling the Causal Linkages between Transport, Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation for 75 Countries. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 53, 415-427.
  • Saidi, S., Shahbaz, M. ve Akhtar, P. (2018). The Long-Run Relationships between Transport Energy Consumption, Transport Infrastructure, and Economic Growth in MENA Countries. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 111, 78-95.
  • Salifou, C. K. ve Haq, I. U. (2017). Tourism, Globalization and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Selected West African States. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(6), 664–667.
  • Santamaria, D. ve Filis, G. (2019). Tourism Demand and Economic Growth in Spain: New Insights Based on the Yield Curve. Tourism Management, 75, 447–459.
  • Sarıdoğan, H. Ö. (2020). Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök ve Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 15(3), 829-848.
  • Seghir, G. M., Mostéfa, B., Abbes, S. M. ve Zakarya, G. Y. (2015). Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1613–1623.
  • Seghir, G. M., Mostéfa, B., Abbes, S. M. ve Zakarya, G. Y. (2015). Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1613–1623.
  • Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., Shahzad, S. J. H. ve Haouas, I. (2018). Is the Tourism–Economic Growth Nexus Time-Varying? Bootstrap Rolling-Window Causality Analysis for the Top 10 Tourist Destinations. Applied Economics, 50(24), 2677–2697.
  • Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R., Shahzad, S. J. H. ve Haouas, I. (2018). Is The Tourism–Economic Growth Nexus Time-Varying? Bootstrap Rolling-Window Causality Analysis for the Top 10 Tourist Destinations. Applied Economics, 50(24), 2677–2697.
  • Shahzad, S. J. H., Shahbaz, M., Ferrer, R. ve Kumar, R. R. (2017). Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis in The Top Ten Tourist Destinations: New Evidence Using the Quantile-on-Quantile Approach. Tourism Management, 60, 223–232.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. ve Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework. In R. Sickles & W. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281–314). New York, NY: Springer.
  • Soukiazis, E. ve Proença, S. (2008). Tourism as an Alternative Source of Regional Growth in Portugal: A Panel Data Analysis at NUTS II and III Levels. Portuguese Economic Journal, 7, 43-61.
  • Tecel, A., Katircioğlu, S., Taheri, E., ve Victor Bekun, F. (2020). Causal İnteractions among Tourism, Foreign Direct İnvest-Ment, Domestic Credits, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected Mediterranean Countries. Portuguese Economic Journal, 19(3), 195–212.
  • Terzi, H. ve Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye’nin İktisadi Büyümesinde Turizm Sektörünün Katkısı. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 48, 45-64.
  • Tugcu, C. T. (2014). Tourism and Economic Growth Nexus Revisited: A Panel Causality Analysis For The Case of The Mediterranean Region. Tourism Management, 42, 207–212.
  • Udi, J., Bekun, F. V. ve Adedoyin, F. F. (2020). Modeling The Nexus Between Coal Consumption, FDI Inflow and Economic Expansion: Does Industrialization Matter in South Africa?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(10), 10553-10564.
  • Umar, M., Ji, X., Kirikkaleli, D., Shahbaz, M. ve Zhou, X. (2020). Environmental Cost of Natural Resources Utilization and Economic Growth: Can China Shift Some Burden Through Globalization for Sustainable Development?. Sustainable Development, 28(6), 1678-1688.
  • UNWTO. (2018). Contribution from the Countries in the Committee on Tourism Statistics and Tourism Satellite Account of the UN WTO (UNWTO). Seventh Meeting of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on the Sustainable Development Goal Indicators. 10-12 April, Vienna: Austria.
  • UNWTO. (2020). Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak on International Tourism. Updated 27 March 2020. https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-international-tourism.
  • World Bank Group. (2019). World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/topic/ financial-sector?locations=ZG
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2017). Travel & Tourism: Economic Impact 2017. https://www.wttc.org
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2018). Travel & Tourism Global Economic Impact & Issues 2018. https://www.wttc.org
  • World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2023). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact & Global Trend 2022. Issues 2018. https://www.wttc.org
  • Yalçinkaya, Ö, Daştan, M., ve Karabulut, K. (2018). The Effects of International Tourism Receipts on Economic Growth: Evidence from the first 20 Highest Income Earning Countries from Tourism in The World (1996-2016). Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(3), 55–71.
  • Ying, Y. H., Chang, K., ve Lee, C. H. (2014). The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 17(2), 25-34.
Toplam 80 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Zaman Serileri Analizi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

Bayram Fatih Günbay Bu kişi benim 0009-0009-4252-9715

Sinem Eyüboğlu 0000-0002-3525-9173

Proje Numarası 1919B012207478
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 4 Ağustos 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 15 Ağustos 2024
Kabul Tarihi 24 Nisan 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Sayı: 48

Kaynak Göster

APA Günbay, B. F., & Eyüboğlu, S. (2025). TÜRKİYE’DE HAVA TAŞIMACILIĞI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: ASİMETRİK ETKİLER VE TURİZME DAYALI BÜYÜME ANALİZİ. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(48), 35-52. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1533793


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