Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study

Sertac Oruc

doi:10.29137/umagd.868317

EN

Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study

Abstract

This study examines the persistence and long-term correlation of monthly and seasonal rainfall time series of Kırşehir for the period of 1960-2019, with widely used Hurst exponent and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) analyses. Both Hurst exponent and DFA analyses could be used to detect the long-term memory and correlation that can be assessed as a reference of predictability. To support the analyses results Augmented Dickey Fuller and Mann-Kendall tests also applied to time series. Within various rainfall series, evidence of persistence and long-term correlation was identified. According to H exponent values of simple R/S and corrected R/S methods, 10 out of 12 months and winter, spring (only simple R/S), summer (only corrected R/S) and autumn season and according to DFA scaling exponent values 4 out of 12 months and winter and autumn seasons exhibit long term correlation. On the other hand, when the H exponent and DFA scaling exponent values compared only four monthly and two seasonal rainfall series concluded to be consistent with both H exponent and DFA scaling exponent results.

Keywords

Hurst exponent, Persistence, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, Rainfall

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Civil Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Sertac Oruc ^*
0000-0003-2906-0771
Türkiye

Publication Date

January 31, 2022

Submission Date

January 26, 2021

Acceptance Date

July 16, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2022 Volume: 14 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.868317

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA56BX32ZN

APA

Oruc, S. (2022). Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, 14(1), 246-255. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.868317

AMA

1.Oruc S. Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study. IJERAD. 2022;14(1):246-255. doi:10.29137/umagd.868317

Chicago

Oruc, Sertac. 2022. “Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 14 (1): 246-55. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.868317.

EndNote

Oruc S (January 1, 2022) Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 14 1 246–255.

IEEE

[1]S. Oruc, “Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study”, IJERAD, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 246–255, Jan. 2022, doi: 10.29137/umagd.868317.

ISNAD

Oruc, Sertac. “Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development 14/1 (January 1, 2022): 246-255. https://doi.org/10.29137/umagd.868317.

JAMA

1.Oruc S. Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study. IJERAD. 2022;14:246–255.

MLA

Oruc, Sertac. “Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study”. International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, vol. 14, no. 1, Jan. 2022, pp. 246-55, doi:10.29137/umagd.868317.

Vancouver

1.Sertac Oruc. Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study. IJERAD. 2022 Jan. 1;14(1):246-55. doi:10.29137/umagd.868317

Kırıkkale University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Science, 71450 Yahşihan / Kırıkkale, Türkiye.

ijerad@kku.edu.tr

Persistence of Rainfall Time Series: Kırşehir Case Study

Abstract

Keywords

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