THE IMPACT OF POPULAR SUPPORT ON TERRORIST GROUP SURVIVAL: A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE PKK AND THE SHINING PATH

Öz

Why do some terrorist groups survive for decades while others collapse despite sharing similar contexts? This study argues that variation in popular support plays a crucial but often overlooked role as a causal explanation for the longevity of terrorist group. Drawing on a comparative, process-tracing analysis of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), the article shows that the longevity of terrorist groups depends on the maintenance of popular support which activates the mechanisms of resource mobilization and post-shock adaptation (organizational and ideological). While both groups emerged from marginalized rural bases and faced harsh counterterrorism campaigns, their survival trajectories sharply diverged. The PKK survived intense counterterrorism and leadership decapitation through continued popular support, whereas the Shining Path’s violence against civilians rapidly eroded its social base, making it vulnerable to collapse after Guzman’s arrest. The findings in this study contribute to terrorism literature by theorizing popular support as a dynamic causal mechanism and offer policy implications for counterterrorism strategies by emphasizing legitimacy and civilian engagement.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• PKK
• Shining Path
• Popular support
• Resource mobilization
• Organizational-ideological adaptation

TERÖRİST GRUPLARIN HAYATTA KALMASI ÜZERİNDE HALK DESTEĞİNİN ETKİSİ: PKK VE AYDINLIK YOL ARASINDA BİR KARŞILAŞTIRMA

Öz

Bazı terör örgütleri benzer bağlamlarda yer almalarına rağmen on yıllarca hayatta kalırken diğerleri neden çöküyor? Bu çalışma, halk desteğindeki farklılığın, terör örgütlerinin uzun ömürlülüğünün nedensel bir açıklaması olarak çok önemli ancak genellikle göz ardı edilen bir rol oynadığını savunmaktadır. Kürdistan İşçi Partisi (PKK) ve Sendero Luminoso (Parlak Yol) örgütlerinin karşılaştırmalı, süreç izleme analizine dayanan makale, terör örgütlerinin uzun ömürlülüğünün, kaynak seferberliği ve şok sonrası adaptasyon (örgütsel ve ideolojik) mekanizmalarını harekete geçiren halk desteğinin sürdürülmesine bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Her iki grup da marjinal kırsal kesimlerden ortaya çıkmış ve sert terörle mücadele kampanyalarıyla karşı karşıya kalmış olsa da, hayatta kalma yörüngeleri keskin bir şekilde farklılaşmıştır. PKK, yoğun terörle mücadele ve liderlik devrilmesinden halk desteğinin devam etmesiyle kurtulurken, Parlak Yol'un sivillere yönelik şiddeti sosyal tabanını hızla aşındırarak, Guzman'ın tutuklanmasından sonra çöküşe karşı savunmasız hale getirmiştir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, halk desteğini dinamik bir nedensel mekanizma olarak kuramsallaştırarak terörizm literatürüne katkıda bulunmakta ve meşruiyet ile sivil katılımı vurgulayarak terörle mücadele stratejileri için politika çıkarımları sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• PKK
• Aydınlık Yol
• Halk desteği
• Kaynak seferberliği
• Örgütsel-ideolojik uyum

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