A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IRAN-ISRAEL WAR WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF NATIONAL POWER STATISTICS

Öz

In the Middle East, the rivalry between Iran and Israel has escalated from proxy wars to direct warfare in 2026. The primary objective of this article is to comparatively analyze the economic, military, and geostrategic dynamics of this war using national power statistics and a quantitative methodology. The study utilizes a longitudinal dataset covering 35 years (1990-2024) to examine macroeconomic variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), economic power, military power, demographics, steel production, energy consumption, and high-technology capacity. The methodology relies on national capacity indices, industrial capacity measurements, and net power formulations. Statistical findings are evaluated within the framework of Realism Theory. The comparative results show that while Israel has superiority in high technology and net power, Iran possesses significant demographic and industrial power. Furthermore, the study concludes that Israel entered into a preemptive war to protect its regional hegemony and maintain the status quo after Iran approached the brink of developing nuclear weapons and neared a more significant power transition. The article concludes that the escalation of competition between the two actors into war, and its outcome, will be influenced not only by military power but also by economic efficiency and advanced technological capabilities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Iran-Israel War
• National Power Statistics
• Middle East
• USA
• Nuclear Armament

ULUSAL GÜÇ İSTATİSTİKLERİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE İRAN – İSRAİL SAVAŞININ KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ

Öz

Orta Doğu bölgesinde İran ve İsrail arasındaki rekabet 2026 yılında vekalet savaşları sınırını aşarak doğrudan karşılıklı savaşa dönüşmüştür. Bu makalenin temel amacı, savaşın ekonomik, askeri ve jeostratejik dinamiklerini ulusal güç istatistikleri vasıtasıyla ve nicel bir metodolojiyle karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmektir. Araştırmada, 1990-2024 yılları arasında 35 yılı kapsayan boylamsal bir veri seti kullanılarak; Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH), ekonomik güç, askeri güç, demografi, çelik üretimi, enerji tüketimi ve yüksek teknoloji kapasitesi gibi makro değişkenler incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın metodolojisi, ulusal kapasite indeksleri, endüstriyel kapasite ölçümleri ve net güç formülasyonlarına dayanmıştır. İstatistiksel bulgular, Realizm Teorisi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırmanın karşılaştırmalı sonucunda İsrail’in yüksek teknoloji ve net güç bağlamında üstünlüğüne karşın İran’ın demografik ve endüstriyel gücünün yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, İran’ın nükleer silah yapım eşiğine gelerek daha etkili bir güç geçişine yaklaşması sonrasında İsrail’in bölgesel hegemonyasını korumak ve statükosunu sürdürmek maksadıyla önleyici savaşa girdiği sonucuna varılmıştır. Makale, iki aktör arasındaki rekabet koşullarının savaşa dönüşmesi ve bunun sonuçlanmasında salt askeri gücün değil bunun yanı sıra ekonomik verimliliğin ve yüksek teknoloji gücünün de etkili olacağı sonucuna ulaşmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İran-İsrail Savaşı
• Ulusal Güç İstatistikleri
• Orta Doğu
• ABD
• Nükleer Silahlanma

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